text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
WIll answers from top LLMs about COVID origins be stable in 2034? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will 30 year mortgage interest rates fall below 5% before 2026? (United States) | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will 30 year mortgage interest rates fall below 5% before 2025? (United States) | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will there be a skyhook space structure placed in LEO before 2063? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Public figure comes out as a living performance art project before 2030 | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will Northern Cyprus be a sovereign state before 2040? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will Somaliland be a sovereign state before 2040? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2040? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will Scotland leave the UK by 2040? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will Greenland be a sovereign state before 2040? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will the admissions rate at Tufts University be lower in 2024 than it was in 2023 (9.5%)? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will the linked market resolve before the end of 2024? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will an Apple Watch with no-prick blood glucose monitoring come out by 2029? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will LLMs estimate a probability over 60% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034? | 0.48 | Manifold |
2+ day GPS outage before 2032 in the USA | 0.16 | Manifold |
US tribe uses "Genetic reclamation" to increase their blood quantum before 2046 | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will LLMs estimate a probability over 40% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will the Nintendo Switch become the best-selling game console of all time by outselling the Playstation 2 before 2026? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump join a Twitter Space by the end of 2024? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will a human baby be born via IVG by end of 2024? | 0.2 | Manifold |
US Senator with face tattoo before 2043 | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will juno.finance still exist and still offer checking interest rates <0.5% below the effective fed funds rate in 2053? | 0.5 | Manifold |
There will be more children born via artificial wombs than not in first world countries before 2050 | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will there be CPUs manufactured on diamond wafers by 2100? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Are civil High Altitude Platform Systems (HAPS) going to be used commercially for telecommunications before 2030? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will dogecoin’s market cap go below $2B before 2060? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will Issue #1 at DSMell.org be closed as "completed" by May 27th, 2025? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Ozempic approval is revoked or withdrawn before 2031 | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will the Nintendo Switch outsell the Nintendo DS before 2026? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Before 2033, will semaglutide be shown to improve lifespan, when prescribed to overweight people? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will Tadashi Yanai (founder of Fast Retailing) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump publicly use the word 'deepfake' before 2025? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump claim that a photo or video of him has been faked or manipulated by 2025? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will one US Dollar be worth more than 50 Turkish Lira by 2025? | 0.62 | Manifold |
NPVIC Reaches Threshold Before 2030? (No) → Second US Civil War Before 2031 | 0.05 | Manifold |
NPVIC Reaches Threshold Before 2030? (Yes) → Second US Civil War Before 2031 | 0.1 | Manifold |
Global temperature anomaly in 2050 | 0.57 | Manifold |
Atmospheric PPM CO2 in 2050 | 0.49 | Manifold |
How many copies (in millions) will the Nintendo Switch sell by the end of fiscal year 2027? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will cevumeran start a Phase III trial for pancreatic cancer by 2030? | 0.48 | Manifold |
By 2028 will an assisted LLM beat the Ender Dragon? | 0.83 | Manifold |
By 2028 will a language model beat the Ender Dragon? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will the Android Kindle app offer book buying before 2026 | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 for at least 1 full day before 2025? | 0.45 | Manifold |
What will be the highest ELO on Chatbot Arena on July 1, 2024? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will any Chatbot beat GPT-4 by July 1, 2024? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will all forms of carbon sequestration combined sequester> 100 gigaton CO2eq by 2050 | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Shohei Ohtani makes at least 50m USD/year before 2028 | 0.66 | Manifold |
MLB pitchers required to wear protective headgear covering at least part of the jaw and cheeks while pitchin before 2029 | 0.33 | Manifold |
MLB pitchers required to wear protective headgear during games before 2029 | 0.32 | Manifold |
Mizzy serves at least a month in prison before 2025 | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will Iran have a regime change by the end of 2024? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will Iran have a regime change by the end of 2024? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will any AI cause an international incident before August 2024? (M1300 subsidy) | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will the US implement an UBI (universal basic income) before 2040? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will the US implement an UBI (universal basic income) before 2030? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will a spin-off series of Ted Lasso air on Apple TV+ by Dec 31, 2024? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 electoral college win the popular vote? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will 30 year mortgage interest rates fall below 5% before 2024? (United States) | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before 2030? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will a protest attracting 10,000 participants against AGI development occur before 2030? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will a protest attracting 100,000 participants against AGI development occur before 2030? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will a protest attracting 10,000 participants against AGI development occur before 2025? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will the Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator read above 0.5 percentage points by the end of 2024? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will YouTuber @acollierastro have >100k subscribers by 2025? | 0.93 | Manifold |
Will vegetarianism be mandated population wide in at least one country by 2050? | 0.21 | Manifold |
By 2028 will we be able to identify distinct submodules/algorithms within LLMs? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will we have an open-source model that is equivalent GPT-4 by end of 2025? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will an electrical device powered by the charge in atmospheric humidity be available commercially before 2030? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will running "prey substitute" robots, which carry meat substitutes for feeding wild predators, exist by 2050? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will Apple power Siri using an AI thats the IP of Anthropic before 2026? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will the causal factors for the global secular decline in men's testosterone levels become clear by 2028? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will Starlink IPO by 2030? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will the largest AI training run in 2025 utilize Sophia, Second-order Clipped Stochastic Optimization? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Homestuck^2 get a content update before 2030? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will Meter, Inc do an initial public offering or get acquired before the end of 2030? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will Daron Acemoglu win a Nobel Prize by 2028? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will Academic Capture Become a Topic of 5X Interest Than Baseline by Year End 2033? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Dolores Park in SF, CA has dedicated pickleball courts before 2029 | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will Li Ka-shing (Senior Advisor of CK Hutchison Holdings) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will ChatGPT be Proven to be Unsafe on Several Fronts in Comparison to Claude / Anthropic By End of 2024 | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Nvidia maintain its monopoly? (2030) | 0.52 | Manifold |
Michael Lewis book "Going Infinite" on SBF will be #1 on NYTimes bestseller list for at least 10 weeks before mid 2024 | 0.11 | Manifold |
2024 IA GOP Caucuses: Desantis % of popular vote. | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will Nvidia ($NVDA) exceed $1T market cap before May 25th 2024? | 0.98 | Manifold |
Will every province of Australia legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Sweden legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will Czechia legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will New Zealand legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will Switzerland legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will Norway legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will the Netherlands legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will every state of the US legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will any state of the US legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will every province of Canada legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will any province of Canada legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will any state or territory of Australia legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033? | 0.96 | Manifold |
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