text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
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|---|---|---|
Will Germany legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will the UK legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Adobe's senior management team say that generative AI is a headwind to Adobe by Sep 2024? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will Sam Altman cease to be CEO of OpenAI before 2030? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will there be >100 humans living on / in the atmosphere of Venus in 2063? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2075? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2050? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will Kari Lake be the Republican VP candidate in 2024? | 0.2 | Manifold |
The % of people who will think top AI firms are racing in 2026 (Resolves to Yes/Probably on poll) | 0.62 | Manifold |
By 2026, will Openai commit to delaying model release if ARC Evals thinks it's dangerous? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will there be a terror attack that kills at least 10 people at Paris 2024 Olympics? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Final Fantasy 7 remake trilogy be completed and released for PS by the end of 2027? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will the "Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee" market be *mostly* above 90% on May 28th | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will the "Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee" market be *mostly* above 90% on May 27th | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will the "Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee" market be *mostly* above 90% on May 26th | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will the "Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee" market be *mostly* above 90% on May 25th | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will strong evidence of aliens be discovered before 2030? | 0.16 | Manifold |
What will Tontine's living player count be on 2024-1-1? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will a giant English encyclopedia exceeding 50 billion words be created before May 2028? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will an English encyclopedia exceeding 15 billion words be created before May 2028? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will a city ban manually driven cars on at least one public road/lane by 2030? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will there be a digital Giving What We Can member pin by 2025? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will Will Hurd win any state in the 2024 Republican primaries? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Trump be suspended (again) on Facebook before the end of 2024? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will any US Department secretaries visit China by the end of 2024? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Elizabeth Holmes have published a best-selling book before 2045 | 0.25 | Manifold |
At any point before the start of 2050, will a country named Siberia (or something similar) be a member of the UN? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Clean Air Task Force be recommended as a top charity by Founders Pledge or Giving Green in 2026? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will $1mn USD worth of funds be lost as a result of fraud committed by Kraken? (Before 2030) | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will $1mn USD worth of funds be lost as a result of fraud committed by Coinbase Exchange? (Before 2030) | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will $1mn USD worth of funds be lost as a result of fraud committed by Binance? (Before 2030) | 0.88 | Manifold |
Will the United States kill 1,000+ people before 2024 with nuclear strikes? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will the United States kill 1,000+ people before 2025 with nuclear strikes? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will the United States kill 1,000+ people before 2026 with nuclear strikes? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Tesla Optimus robot commit a crime before year 2028? 🦾 | 0.28 | Manifold |
By 2030, will an electric car be the most economical car you can buy in the US? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will Russia kill 1,000+ people before 2026 with nuclear strikes? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Russia kill 1,000+ people before 2025 with nuclear strikes? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Russia kill 1,000+ people before 2024 with nuclear strikes? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will python mojo be successful (>50% loved on SO survey) by end of 2025? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will any navy ship of more than 2,000 tonnes be sunk in ship-to-ship combat before 2036? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will any military vessel of more than 15,000 tonnes be lost at sea before 2036? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will any aircraft carrier be lost at sea before 2036? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will North Korea kill 1,000+ people before 2026 with nuclear strikes? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will North Korea kill 1,000+ people before 2025 with nuclear strikes? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will North Korea kill 1,000+ people before 2024 with nuclear strikes? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will trump run in 2024? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will a infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will CGP Grey release Part 1 of his “Reservations” series before the end of 2025? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will CGP Grey release Part 1 of his “Reservations” series before the end of 2024? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will Blue Origin successfully land a spacecraft on the moon in 2024? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will an open source LLM (Vicuna, Alpaca, etc.) exceed ChatGPT interest by 2030? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2029? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Asa Hutchinson be the GOP nominee for president or vice president in 2024? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Francis X. Suarez be the GOP nominee for president or vice president in 2024? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Tim Scott be the GOP nominee for VICE president in 2024? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will Nikki Haley be the GOP nominee for either president or vice president in 2024? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will Tim Scott be the GOP nominee for president in 2024? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will there be a global "pause" on cutting-edge AI research due to government regulation by 2025? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will at least 2 people die in protests in response to Trump's arrest before 2025? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will François Pinault (chairman of Kering) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will John Carney win the 2024 Senate election in Delaware? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Lisa Blunt Rochester win the 2024 Senate election in Delaware? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Chrome still pointlessly helps me define basic words like "the" through 2030 | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will Tesla have a ChatGPT moment in self-driving cars by 2024 year-end? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Giovanni Ferrero (chairman of Ferrero Group) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
IEM DEM24_WTA: Democrats more votes than Republicans in 2024 Presidential election? | 0.81 | Manifold |
IEM REP24_WTA: Republicans more votes than Democrats in 2024 Presidential election? | 0.18 | Manifold |
IEM UREP24_VS: Republican share of the two-party popular vote in the 2024 Presidential election | 0.46 | Manifold |
IEM UDEM24_VS: Democratic share of the two-party popular vote in the 2024 Presidential election | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will there be an AI bubble before 2030? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will Instagram (META) new text-based app 'Threads' overtake Twitter before 2024? | 0.16 | Manifold |
If tech company Faire goes public before 2026, will its value 6 months after IPO be at least US$13 billion? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will the DOE Hydrogen Shot Succeed in Reducing the Price of Renewable Hydrogen to $1/kg by 2030? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will there be a successful human trial of a vaccine for rheumatoid arthritis by the end of 2028? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will a state which is not the US contract SpaceX or Blue Origin to conduct a lunar landing before 2035? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will SpaceX or Blue Origin conduct or be contracted to conduct a private lunar landing before 2035? | 0.79 | Manifold |
How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will LLMs (or similar AI systems) be meaningfully integrated into US public school education by 2025? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will High Speed Rail connect SF and LA by 2040? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will 'The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom' have outsold 'Pokémon Sword/Pokémon Shield' at any point before 2025? | 0.92 | Manifold |
Will 'The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom' have outsold 'Animal Crossing: New Horizons' at any point before 2025? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will 'The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom' have outsold 'Super Smash Bros. Ultimate' at any point before 2025? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will 'The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom' have outsold 'Breath of the Wild' at any point before 2025? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will universal dog population surpass human population by 2051 | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will groundhogs go extinct before 2048? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Sam Altman has a child before 2032 | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will there in any year 2024-2030 be a decline in the number of Developers worldwide compared to last year? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will Elizabeth Warren win the 2024 senatorial race? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will Joe Biden speak the phrase "Biden Blast" before 2025? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will "Rail Baltica" be operational by mid-2030? [100M subsidy] | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting throughout 2035? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting throughout 2030? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting throughout 2026? | 0.88 | Manifold |
Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting throughout 2025? | 0.93 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2200? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will YouTube channel How Ridiculous break the world record for highest basketball shot by the end of 2025? | 0.48 | Manifold |
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