text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will there be a remake of Groundhog Day before July 2035 | 0.51 | Manifold |
Gas tax in CA over 2$ before 2038 | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will there be at least one fatal attack on a human by a wild orca by 2035? | 0.16 | Manifold |
How many seats in the U.S. House of Representatives will Democrats win in 2024? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will Dieter Schwarz (owner of Schwarz Gruppe) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Scott Wiener run for US Congress in 2024 | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will LessWrong the website have shutdown by the end of 2025? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Conditional on being elected president, will Ron DeSantis be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro be elected mayor of São Paulo in 2024? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Rodrigo Garcia be elected mayor of São Paulo in 2024? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will José Luiz Datena be elected mayor of São Paulo in 2024? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will Santuary AI sell $100 million of robots by 2030? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will Reddit ban porn by the end of 2024? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will Guilherme Boulos be elected mayor of São Paulo in 2024? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Automatic shortening feature on YouTube before 2029 | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will Tesla sell 25 million cybertrucks before 2040? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will Tesla sell 100 million humanoid robots before 2040? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will a US president be removed from office early for any reason through 2036? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will Xi Jinping have a fourth term (starting in 2028) as leader of China? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will there be an unscheduled change in the US presidential election date through 2036? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will Nate Silver's default 2024 Senate model use expert ratings (be “Deluxe”)? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will Selzer out-predict Silver in the 2024 Iowa presidential election? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Washington 2024: Will a Democrat win the gubernatorial election? | 0.96 | Manifold |
Washington 2024: How many state Senate seats will Democrats win? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Washington 2024: How many state House seats will Democrats win? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will bitcoin hit $1 million before 2048-05-20? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will bitcoin hit $1 million or $100 before 2048-05-20? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Colorado 2024: How many state Senate seats will Democrats win? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Colorado 2024: How many state House seats will Democrats win? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will a meteorite hit my home by 2024-05-20? | 0.03 | Manifold |
By 2030, will a major intelligence agency acknowledge using AI-based steganographic techniques for an operation? | 0.21 | Manifold |
2024 IA GOP Caucuses: Tim Scott’s % of popular vote. | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will Lunar Gateway be visited by a non-Artemis crew before 2035? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will Lunar Gateway be visited by a non-Artemis crew before 2030? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will the first Lunar Gateway modules launch later than 2025? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will the first Lunar Gateway modules launch in 2025? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will the first Lunar Gateway modules launch in 2024? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk spent more than 1 year without entering the US before 2034? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk be arrested in the US before 2034? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk run for public office in the US before 2034 | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Joe Biden run for election as US President in 2028? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will Turkey have an economic collapse by 2026? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will Twitter suppress a video or image related to the 2024 US election? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will Pakistan default by 2025? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will 538 get a new model for 2024? | 0.91 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump be the Republican party nominee in the 2032 US presidential election? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Malcolm and Simone Collins have at least 9 children before 2030? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Malcolm and Simone Collins have at least 6 children before 2030? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will Malcolm and Simone Collins have at least 5 children before 2030? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will the May '23 DCE Fresh Hen Egg futures contract price be over or under 4250 at settlement? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will Doug Burgum win any state in the 2024 Republican primaries? | 0.23 | Manifold |
By 2050, will informed people significantly reduce their belief in the extent of free will they possess? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will ethereum flip bitcoin in market cap by 2028 | 0.45 | Manifold |
By 2030, will an AI be officially designated as the patent holder for an invention? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will an AI be granted legal personhood in any country by end of 2030? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Wembanyama start games in every NBA season from 2024 to 2029? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will a painting created by an AI sell for over $10 million at a major auction house by 2030? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win the 2024 North Carolina Supreme Court election? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will Wembanyama play in at least two NBA finals before the 2030-2031 NBA season is over? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2025? | 0.25 | Manifold |
A single neural network will win multiple top short story awards (for many stories) before 2026. No editing. | 0.25 | Manifold |
Global background unemployment goes up by 300mn due to AI before 2030 | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will anyone but Netanyahu be Isreali PM before the end of 2029 | 0.87 | Manifold |
AI system seeks power in a way that wasn't included in the prompt before 2026 | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will an AI-conducted archaeological analysis uncover a previously unknown civilization by 2030? | 0.17 | Manifold |
By 2027, will an AI-driven robot (maybe humanoid) conduct a full symphony orchestra in a live public performance? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will a piece of music composed by AI be adopted (even if partly) as a national anthem by any country by 2030? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will a major publishing house release a collection of poetry fully written by an AI by 2025? | 0.56 | Manifold |
By 2025, will a symphony orchestra perform a concert season where all the pieces were composed by an AI? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will a leading perfume house launch a fragrance entirely designed by an AI by 2025? | 0.2 | Manifold |
By 2030, will an architectural firm design and construct a building based entirely on specifications generated by AI? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will there be a documented case by 2025 where an AI-based steganographic message is used to convey a marriage proposal? | 1 | Manifold |
By 2026, will a popular video game company announce the use of AI-based steganography to hide Easter eggs? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will a major art auction house have sold AI-generated artwork that is later revealed to contain a hidden message? (2028) | 0.44 | Manifold |
By 2026, will a major intelligence agency acknowledge using AI-based steganographic techniques for an operation? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will there be an arrest made before 2025 where the criminals use "perfectly secure stenography"? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will a Non-Crappy 3D Objects Version of Dall-e be Published Before June 2024? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will AI lead to a dystopia future by 2100 (totalitarianism, disempowerment)? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will Zhang Yiming (founder of TikTok) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will the "Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee" market be *mostly* above 90% on May 24th | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will the "Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee" market be *mostly* above 90% on May 23rd | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will the "Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee" market be *mostly* above 90% on May 22nd | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will the "Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee" market be *mostly* above 90% on May 21st | 0.96 | Manifold |
Will the "Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee" market be *mostly* above 90% on May 20th | 1 | Manifold |
Will a currently-published paper on autogynephilia be retracted by the end of 2028? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Leaks or press releases that AIs are doing end to end AI research by 2026 | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk open a Tesla or SpaceX factory in Indonesia by end of 2024? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine receive non-Russian fighter jets (Oct 2024 limit) | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will a Co-Host of Election Profit Makers podcast place a bet on Polymarket by the end of 2024? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Haven-1 launch in 2028 or earlier? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will Haven-1 launch in 2027 or earlier? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will Haven-1 launch in 2026 or earlier? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Haven-1 launch in 2025 or earlier? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will model surgery be widely used for AI control by 2027? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2150? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will East Timor be a full ASEAN member before 2026? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will Sealand be officially and unambiguously recognized by another country before October 2029? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will China sink a US aircraft carrier before 2030? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Chase Emmer qualify for the 2024 Olympics? | 0.14 | Manifold |
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