text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will hypersonic missile(s) sink a US aircraft carrier by 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Lee Kiefer get Gold in a fencing event at the 2024 Olympics? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will Samuel Imrek fence in the 2024 Olympics? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will the leaderboards tab return to the sidebar of Manifold by 2024? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will Phil Knight (founder of Nike) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump live till the end of 2028? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will Joe Biden live till the end of 2028? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will there be Section 230 reform before 2025? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will Amtrak or another intercity rail serve Columbus Ohio before 2030? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will >300k people know Esperanto fluently by the end of 2040? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will there be a violent revolution or Civil war in America by 2100? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will an LLM do a task that the user hadn't requested in a notable way before 2026? | 0.95 | Manifold |
Will an LLM that someone is trying to shut down stop or avoid that in some way before 2026? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will the Star Wars Galactic Starcruiser be repuropsed as a conventional Star Wars hotel and/or restaurant by Oct 1,2025? | 0.59 | Manifold |
A popular AI priest for a popular religion before 2024 end? (500M subsidy) | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will at least one of new Star Wars movies come out by 2025? | 0.16 | Manifold |
In 2030 will VTOL aircraft be the obvious future of most personnel transportation | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will time travel be commercially available before 2100? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will Trump be the Vice Presidential candidate for the GOP in 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will an official Bloodborne port/remake/remaster be released for PC before 2026? | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will an official Bloodborne port/remake/remaster be released for PC before 2025? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will an official Bloodborne port/remake/remaster be announced for PC before 2024? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will WHO declare a global health emergency not directly based on epidemic concerns by 2030? | 0.46 | Manifold |
[Twitter Claims] Will someone convince me that <20% of food consumed in Africa is produced in Africa? [4500 NO limit] | 0 | Manifold |
Will Twitter launch a dating feature by the end of 2024? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Wembanyama play at least twenty games in the 2026-2027 NBA regular season? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will Earth's temperature be 1.5 degrees by late 2028? | 0.31 | Manifold |
By the start of 2027, will there be >=1 students attending P.S for whom M.M substantially influenced their decision? | 0.62 | Manifold |
By the start of 2025, will there be >=1 students attending P.S for whom M.M substantially influenced their decision? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will foldable phones reach 5% global market share by the end of 2025? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will the Supreme Court deem unconstitutional the Montana statewide ban on TikTok by 2026 year end? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will "Greater Idaho" come to pass by 2025? (Resolves YES if Idaho's borders expand) | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will American society become more accepting of people with DID by EOY 2025? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will a pandemic kill >75% of the peak pre-pandemic world population before 2100? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will PPMD win a mainline numbered Big House or Genesis melee tournament before 2029? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will Francis Ngannou fight any of the people who were on PFL's Heavyweight roster at the time he was signed before 2025? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will any state attempt to secede from the U.S. as a direct result of the 2024 presidential election? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will there be a second Russia-Georgia war by 2030? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will India be introduced into the G8 by the end of 2024? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will Amazon's planned Lord of the Rings MMO come out? (before 2029) | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will the Philadelphia 76ers or Philadelphia Eagles win a championship by 2028? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will a new Super Smash Bros. game be released before 2027? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Tesla based Uber-like service is available in the US for at least some normal Tesla owners before 2030 | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will Rob Miles's YouTube channel have at least 50 videos by the end of 2024? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will AI Impacts publish another Expert Survey on Progress in AI by the end of 2025? | 0.94 | Manifold |
Will anyone associated with Helion be convicted of defrauding Helion investors by 2043? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Gautam Adani (founder of Adani Group) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will Michael Dell (CEO of Dell) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will David Thomson (Thomson Reuters chairman) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Larry Page (cofounder of Google) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky destroy any city with volcanoes by 2050? | 0.04 | Manifold |
At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2030 will be trained using 10^27 FLOPs | 0.7 | Manifold |
At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2026 will be trained using 10^27 FLOPs | 0.2 | Manifold |
At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2030 will be trained using 10^26 FLOPs | 0.75 | Manifold |
A singles tennis grand slam winner will switch to play pickleball full time professionally before 2026 | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Manifold raise a community round by the end of 2024? | 0.2 | Manifold |
At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2026 will be trained using 10^26 FLOPs | 0.6 | Manifold |
A least twenty Thiel fellow founded companies are estimated to be worth >1B USD before 2034 | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will any corporate quantum computing team report 2 or more simultaneous 2-qubit gates with >= 99.9% fidelity by 2025? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026? | 0.45 | Manifold |
How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debate? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will anything other than AI wipe out humanity by 2100? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Seaflooding of at least 5000 km^2 officially announced by a government, to reach that level by 2046 | 0.59 | Manifold |
Seaflooding of at least 5000 km^2 happens before 2046 | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2035? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Wuhan Institute of Virology defector before 2040 | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will Big mom and/or Kaido come back?(ends 1/1/2026) | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will there be >100 humans living on the moon in 2063? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Payload cost per kg to Low Earth Orbit in 2040 | 0.61 | Manifold |
In 2050, what will be the record velocity of a manmade spacecraft? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Soylent release any new flavors? (2024) | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will Kazakhstan be at least partly free by end of 2025? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Belarus be at least partly free by end of 2025? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will Russia be at least partly free by end of 2025? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Julia Koch (Koch Industries part-inheritor) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Charles Koch (CEO of Koch Industries) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Zhong Shanshan (founder of Nongfu Spring) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Turkey be at least partly free by end of 2025? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Turkey be a democracy by end of 2025? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Bernie Sanders run for president in 2024? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will AWS Bedrock offer comparable benchmark performance (>=90%) to OpenAI’s or Anthropic’s best LLMs by 2024? | 0.29 | Manifold |
How much will 1 kwh/year of residential solar cost in US cents in 2033 | 0.72 | Manifold |
Covid-related fiction movie comes out grossing >30m USD in the US before 2033 | 0.73 | Manifold |
In-person GDC will happen in the US in 2027 | 0.74 | Manifold |
In-person GDC will happen in the US in 2026 | 0.73 | Manifold |
In-person GDC will happen in the US in 2025 | 0.71 | Manifold |
In-person GDC will happen in the US in 2024 | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will Grimes record an album using prediction markets to make choices for her before 2024 | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will the US Government issue 100-year bonds before 2030? | 0.47 | Manifold |
By 2040, will an organisation be mining asteroids for resources? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will the US Government issue 50-year bonds before 2030? | 0.45 | Manifold |
By 2035, will an organisation be mining asteroids for resources? | 0.43 | Manifold |
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