text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Fewer than 20k people die from car accidents annually in the US before 2040 | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will Jesse Cox's YouTube channel reach 1M subscribers before Aug 1st 2024? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will the US Jones Act be repealed or reformed by 2024-05-15? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will the US Foreign Dredge Act be repealed or reformed by 2024-05-15? | 0.1 | Manifold |
What percentage of NYC yellow taxis will be electric vehicles by 2030? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will Google's MusicLM be used in any way in the creation of a hit song before 2025? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will George Lucas make and release a feature-length movie or tv show between now and July 1st 2029? | 0.29 | Manifold |
What percentage of NYC yellow taxis will be electric vehicles by 2030? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will fusion provide >30% of US electrical power by 2100? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will fission provide >50% of US electrical power by 2100? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will fusion provide >10% of US electrical power by 2100? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power by 2100? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will Helion Energy deliver 50 MW of fusion-generated electricity to Microsoft by 2099? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will Helion Energy deliver 50 MW of fusion-generated electricity to Microsoft by 2049? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Helion Energy deliver 50 MW of fusion-generated electricity to Microsoft by 2039? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2032? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Alice Walton (Walmart heir) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Rob Walton (businessman, Walmart heir) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will speech dominate 2024 machine learning? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will anyone earn 2 million mana profit by the end of April 2024? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will a government deploy robot dogs into a civilian zone for any purpose by 2025? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump run in the 2028 United States presidential election? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will AES-256 encryption be broken by 2033? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will fossil fuel-powered cars be banned from use in the majority of the world by 2050? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will there be a software security incident caused by the new .zip TLD before the end of 2024? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will Helion deliver 10 MW of fusion-generated electricity to Microsoft before 2031? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will the DLC for ELDEN RING, 'Shadow of the Erdtree', release before 2025? | 0.96 | Manifold |
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will practical liquid breathing be demonstrated before 2040? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will gluten intolerance be curable by 2028? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will Amancio Ortega (Spanish businessman) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Jim Walton (businessman, Walmart heir) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will there be an LLM which can do fluent conlang translations by EOY 2024? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will an NBA expansion team be announced before June 2024? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will there be more than 50 deaths in political, or military conflicts in Belarus, before 2025? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will zuzalu.city happen again in 2024? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will Peter Thiel become a featured NPC in a major AAA game title (like GTA 6) by 2027? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will an OpenAI employee be publicly revealed as a spy for the Chinese government before 2025? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win the 2024 Congressional election in GA-14? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win the 2024 Congressional election in CO-03? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will any country in the world have brain preservation as part of its healthcare system by 2040? | 0.27 | Manifold |
I will conduct a brexit twitter poll in 2030, what will the % Leave be? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will an NFL team be based in Europe by 2030? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will the Jaguars be based in London by 2030? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Turkey's CPI drops below 25% before June 2024 | 0.66 | Manifold |
Turkish military takes control of the government before 2024 | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will the USD/BRL exchange rate fall below 4.50 before 2024? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will a spacecraft powered by SABRE engines reach orbit before 2035? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will a spacecraft powered by SABRE engines reach space before 2035? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will SABRE be tested in Earth's atmosphere by a free-flying aircraft before 2035? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will Mukesh Ambani (billionaire chairman of Reliance Industries) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will Françoise Bettencourt Meyers (French businesswoman) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will a deepfake video of a US political figure go viral before the 2024 US election? | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will spy be worth more than $436 on May 12 2026? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will music dominate 2024 machine learning? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Andreessen Horowitz still be active in 2025? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will any of the Van der Waerden numbers W(2,7), W(3,5), W(4,4), or W(5,3) be known before 2040? | 0.63 | Manifold |
PAW3: Ballot initiatives/policy advocacy to end factory farming or de-escalate stocking densities by 2050 | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Linda Yaccarino step down as the CEO of Twitter by the end of 2024? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will Linda Yaccarino still be the CEO of Twitter by the end of 2024? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will Brittany gain independence from France before 2030 | 0.11 | Manifold |
MLB has a player-manager who plays & manages at least 10 games in a season before 2031 | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will Pakistan engage in military conflict with another nation before the end of 2035? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will Ireland increase it's defense budget by 10% or more in 2024 | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will Google announce that it's going to power Google Translate with an LLM-only based system (before 2024 end)? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will Google's AI chatbot (Bard) contain ads/sponsored links before 2025? | 0.82 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2028? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will AI go foom by 2030? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Pickleball will be an Olympic sport by 2037 | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will Sergey Brin (cofounder of Google) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Steve Ballmer (Former CEO of Microsoft) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Manifold allow market creators to noticeably prohibit themselves from trading on their own markets, by 2024-05-11? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will the US Supreme Court rule any of New York‘s rent control laws unconstitutional by 2025? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Ramzan Kadyrov will be in police or other custody internationally before 2032 | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will Manifold be cited in a paper from a top-tier AI lab or AI journal before 2025? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will GDH (Gross Domestic Healthspan) overtake GDP in relevance/importance/attention by 2050? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2027? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Ramzan Kadyrov visits and publicly appears in London, Paris, Berlin, New York or Washington DC before 2032 | 0.28 | Manifold |
Ramzan Kadyrov becomes the leader of Russia before 2029 | 0.07 | Manifold |
Ramzan Kadyrov becomes the leader of Russia before 2026 | 0.08 | Manifold |
Ramzan Kadyrov becomes the leader of Russia before 2024 | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will a Western personality announce he's in love with an AI girlfriend by the end of April 2024? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will a lead candidate become Commission President after the 2024 EU election? | 0.7 | Manifold |
In 2027 when polled, respondents will agree that "compute really matters in AI" | 0.89 | Manifold |
Will 100 or more people be injured or killed in a dispute/conflict between Turkey and Greece, prior to 2030 | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will 10 or more people be injured or killed in a dispute/conflict between Turkey and Greece, prior to 2030 | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will 1 or more person be injured or killed in a dispute/conflict between Turkey and Greece, prior to 2030 | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will working be necessary in 2070? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will 1% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2033? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will there be evidence by 2030 that human selection on farmed mushrooms alters our gut microbiome? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will a large city run out of water before 15march 2025? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will there be a UK General Election held using an alternative voting system before 2030? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will agents dominate 2024 machine learning? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will video dominate 2024 machine learning? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will an AI be able to write a prescription for medication in the US or a EU member country by 2030? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Non-SpaceX propulsive first stage landing by 2025? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will the combined age of the POTUS and VP nominees of the 2024 election be higher than in the 2020 election? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will Carlos Slim (Mexican business magnate) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Bill Gates (Microsoft, philanthropy) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.07 | Manifold |
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