text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
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|---|---|---|
If you add up the ages of the presidential and VP nominees of the 2 major parties in 2024, will it be over 260? | 0.61 | Manifold |
If you add up the ages of the presidential and VP nominees of the 2 major parties in 2024, will it be over 250? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will the Republican nominee for President in the 2024 election be more than 60 years old? | 0.79 | Manifold |
ChatGPT with GPT-3 Will Be Able to Draw a Turtle with Python Turtle by End of June 2024 | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will any paper published in 2024 be agreeing to the Every Author as First Author proposal by Demaine? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will Helion Energy deliver 50 MW of fusion-generated electricity to Microsoft before 2029? | 0.17 | Manifold |
By end of 2025, will addiction to AI-generated content be a thing? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will Helion Deliver 10 Megawatts of Fusion Power to Microsoft by 2029? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Stonks become a mana sink by 2024-05-10? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will there be a time limit on injunctions in judicial review before 2025? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Non-SpaceX reusable first stage by 2025? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will 20 or more states in the US move to Rank Choice voting for state and/or federal general elections by 2025? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will there be a formal trilogue on the EU AI Act by 2025? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will there be a second reading on the EU AI Act by 2025? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Midjourney will be able to create images of people with different facial expressions before 2024 | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will Emil O. W. Kierkegaard have kids by 2030? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will the gorilla population be lower in 2030 than 2020? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will the chimpanzee population be lower in 2030 than 2020? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will any space station have artificial gravity before 2031? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will the Vast Haven-1 successfully reach orbit atop any SpaceX rocket, at any point in 2030? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will the Vast Haven-1 successfully reach orbit atop any SpaceX rocket, at any point in 2025? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will there be a manned commercial space station in orbit at the end of 2030? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will there be a manned commercial space station in orbit at the end of 2025? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will there be another E3 before 2030? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will Xi Jinping visit London and meet with King Charles by the end of 2024? | 0.35 | Manifold |
"Teal Deal" before 2040? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will a Type 32 frigate be commissioned by the Royal Navy before 2040? | 0.5 | Manifold |
"Teal Deal" before 2030? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will there be NZ-based real-money prediction markets again before 2026? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will the NZ Electoral Commission still use the Orange Guy in 2038? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will the NZ Electoral Commission still use the Orange Guy in 2029? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Rep.George Santos be convicted of a federal felony in the USA by the end of 2025? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will there be unrest in South Africa that kills more than 354 people before July 2024? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will physical print magazines still exist in 2033 | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will physical print magazines still exist in 2043 | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will JK Rowling allow a tv adaptation of Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality by end of 2030? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Twitter and Spotify merge by the end of 2024? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Colin Allred win the 2024 United States Senate election in Texas? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2026? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will there be more than 750,000 amish living in the united states in 2030? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will a coal mine be bought and closed by climate activists by 2033? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will Scott Alexander endorse a Delta-Opioid-Agonist antidepressant before 2029? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will Joe Biden visit Xi in Zhongnanhai by the end of 2024? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Xi Jinping visit the White House by the end of 2024? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Wil Manifold censor or remove criminal charge markets before 2035? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Destiny talk to Fanatiq before 2024? | 0.9 | Manifold |
Will China still be controlled by the CCP in 2050? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2024? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2025? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Conditional on CCP losing power, will China's GDP-PPP per capita catch up with EU by 2050? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will China's GDP-PPP per capita catch up with EU by 2050? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Conditional on China invading Taiwan, will any city get nuked before 2040? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will any city get nuked before 2040? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will there be credible reports that 10 million Americans are on nicotinamide before 2035? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will Michael Bloomberg (mayor, businessman) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Russia field Chinese main battle tanks in Ukraine before 2025? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will 10 or more US banks fail in 2024 (in next year)? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will 9 or more US banks fail in 2024 (in next year)? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will 8 or more US banks fail in 2024 (in next year)? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will 7 or more US banks fail in 2024 (in next year)? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will 6 or more US banks fail in 2024 (in next year)? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will 5 or more US banks fail in 2024 (in next year)? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will Manifold add a reverse searching feature before 2024? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will 4 or more US banks fail in 2024 (in next year)? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will 3 or more US banks fail in 2024 (in next year)? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will 2 or more US banks fail in 2024 (in next year)? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will 1 or more US banks fail in 2024 (in next year)? | 0.78 | Manifold |
If Vivek Ramaswamy is the 2024 nominee, will he win the presidential election? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will the U.S. House delegation from Texas be at least half Democratic at any point before 2041? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will Taiwan successfully demonstrate an anti-satellite capability before 2035? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will a rocket launched from Taiwan reach orbit before the end of 2030? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump run for President as a third party candidate in 2024? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will 'Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny' gross more domestically than 'Kingdom of the Crystal Skull' by 2024? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will a nontoxic MDMA-like drug be legally available in the US by 2030? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Trump win 2024 elections? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Zvi Mowshowitz go on the Hear This Idea podcast by the end of 2024? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Zvi Mowshowitz go on the 80,000 Hours podcast by the end of 2024? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Zvi Mowshowitz go on the Making Sense podcast with Sam Harris by the end of 2024? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Zvi Mowshowitz go on the Mindscape podcast by the end of 2024? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Costcos in US further devalue their hot dog and soda combo before the end of 2027? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will Costcos in US further devalue their hot dog and soda combo before the end of 2026? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Costcos in US further devalue their hot dog and soda combo before the end of 2025? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Costcos in US further devalue their hot dog and soda combo before the end of 2024? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will Destiny's manifesto about mrgirl be at least 6000 words long? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will Costcos in US raise the price of their hot dog and soda combo above $1.50 before the end of 2031? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will Costcos in US raise the price of their hot dog and soda combo above $1.50 before the end of 2030? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will Costcos in US raise the price of their hot dog and soda combo above $1.50 before the end of 2029? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will Costcos in US raise the price of their hot dog and soda combo above $1.50 before the end of 2028? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will Costcos in US raise the price of their hot dog and soda combo above $1.50 before the end of 2027? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will @ShitakiIntaki make a single trade or market in 2024? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Taiwan's Defence Budget rise to 2.5% of GDP in 2025? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Taiwan's Defence Budget rise to 2% of GDP in 2030? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Taiwan's Defence Budget rise to 2.5% of GDP in 2030? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will research towards time travel be a cause area of Effective Altruism before 2030? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Taiwan's Defence Budget rise to 3% of GDP in 2030? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Taiwan's Defence Budget rise to 3% of GDP in 2027? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Taiwan's Defence Budget rise to 2.5% of GDP in 2027? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Taiwan's Defence Budget rise to 2% of GDP in 2027? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will Taiwan's Defence Budget rise to 2% of GDP in 2025? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will Usada Pekora's YouTube channel have over 1 billion views before 2025? | 0.5 | Manifold |
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