text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will there still be at least three Commonwealth Realms in 2028? | 0.94 | Manifold |
Will there still be at least six Commonwealth Realms in 2028? | 0.89 | Manifold |
Will there still be at least nine Commonwealth Realms in 2028? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will there still be at least twelve Commonwealth Realms in 2028? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will any country leave the Commonwealth before 2030? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will any country successfully join the Commonwealth before 2030? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will @ShitakiIntaki make a single trade or market in 2025? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will Australia vote to become a Republic by end of 2025? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will @IsaacKing make a single trade or market in 2026? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will the price of a Costco Hot Dog exceed $1.50 by the end of 2025? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will Dogecoin ($DOGE) be adopted as legal tender in at least 1 country by 2027? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will Microsot Bing and it's subsidiaries pass 20% in market share by end of 2024? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will at least 800 million people die worldwide between 2024 and 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Microsoft operated search engines pass 20% market share by end of 2024? | 0.19 | Manifold |
RSA-2048 encryption will be broken by 2032 | 0.26 | Manifold |
256-bit ECC will be broken by 2032 | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will space exploration and commercialization be among the fastest growing fields through 2030? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will cybersecurity be among the fastest growing fields through 2030? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will healthcare and telemedicine be among the fastest growing fields through 2030? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will electric and autonomous transportation be among the fastest growing fields through 2030? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will robotics be among the fastest growing fields through 2030? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will AI/ML be among the fastest growing fields through 2030? | 0.89 | Manifold |
Will biotechnology be among the fastest growing fields through 2030? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will renewable energy be among the fastest growing fields through 2030? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will a major company develop a commercially available quantum computer by the end of 2027? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will a movie featuring an AI-generated actor win a major film award by the end of 2024? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will Starship launch one thousand times by 2040? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will the game 'Fear & Hunger' have more than 5000 Steam reviews before 2024? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 US Presidential election win with 300 or more electors? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will a GPT-4 level system be trained for <$1mm by 2030? | 0.89 | Manifold |
Will a GPT-4 level system be trained for <$1mm by 2028? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will any Democrats be elected statewide in the 2024 Texas election? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Naomi Osaka win another tennis Grand Slam singles tournament before 2025? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win a Turing Award before 2038? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Manifold give prominent community members equity in Manifold by the end of 2025? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Manifold give prominent community members equity in Manifold by the end of 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win the Nobel peace prize before 2100? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will the first quantum computer to factor two 2048-bit RSA moduli do so in under a minute? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will the linked market average >= 40% in September 2025? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will "The Mandalorian" season 4 premiere before 2025? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will the urban-rural divide in U.S. presidential elections continue to grow in 2024? | 0.8 | Manifold |
I accidentally misgender King Charles by 2024-05-07? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Fortnite MAU down over 50% from peak before 2029 | 0.64 | Manifold |
Genetically illegal people before 2035 | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will there be another coup in Thailand by 2030? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will more than 200,000 US truck drivers lose their jobs by 2028? | 0.53 | Manifold |
UBI in the US by 2030? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will more than 200,000 US truck drivers lose their jobs by 2026? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Resolves yes if Trump wins a lead of 30% over Ron Desantis by Nov 5th 2024 | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will driverless semi trucks be operating commercially in 2024? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will there be a new Kuru Kuru Kururin game released before 2025? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will there be a third season of Bee and PuppyCat by 2027? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will physicians and lawyers be 99th percentile occupations in 2050? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will Tucker and RFK Jr run together in a 2024 presidential primary or the 2024 presidential election? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Manifold employ or consult with a professional mathematician or economist before July 1, 2024? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will Pierre Poilievre dethrone JUSTIN TRUDEAU in the 2025 CANADIAN Election | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will the United States abandon it's policy of "strategic ambiguity" towards China/Taiwan by 2035? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will the United States abandon it's policy of "strategic ambiguity" towards China/Taiwan by 2028? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will the United States abandon it's policy of "strategic ambiguity" towards China/Taiwan by 2030? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will Grover's algorithm be used to mine Bitcoin before 5 years after RSA-2048 is factored? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will an AI fully convince me that it is sentient before 2028? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will the intrusion of magma underneath Matatā, New Zealand form a volcano by 2100? | 0.23 | Manifold |
In how many U.S. States will there be feral pig populations in 2028? | 0.52 | Manifold |
What will be the total number of feral pigs in America in 2028? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will any TOP500 computer use CPUs or accelerators built off of the RISC-V ISA in 2028? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will ChatGPT/GPT-4 Be Able To Render a Single Line Drawing of a Cat by end of June 2024? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will there be a civil war in Russia at any point before EOY 2050? | 0.69 | Manifold |
The end of religion by 2075 | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will the Chinese government default on any debt payments before 2028? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will there be helium-3 production on the moon before 2063 ? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will there be titanium production on the moon before 2063 ? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Non-US Voices are Silenced on Social Media during the 2024 Election Season | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will there be aluminum production on the moon before 2063 ? | 0.45 | Manifold |
If Republicans win the 2024 U.S. presidency, will an AI kill 10% of the human population before 2028? | 0.15 | Manifold |
If Democrats win the 2024 U.S. presidency, will an AI kill 10% of the human population before 2028? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will there be steel production on the moon before 2063 ? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will there be water production on the moon before 2053 ? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will there be oxygen production on the moon before 2053 ? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2030? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will a US court rule that AI-generated content can be a copyright violation before 2025? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will an AI tool in an ebook app allow for any selected text to be explained in simpler terms by 2025? | 0.93 | Manifold |
End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026 | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will Carl Icahn (investor) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Soft White Underbelly be banned from YouTube by 2027? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will Discord allow spaces in text channel names by the end of 2024? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will Prince William become king by 2030? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will Open Source LLM's Beat Out The Vast Majority of Google and/or OpenAI/Microsofts's Moat by end of June 2024? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will economic centralization fall by 2050? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will Saudi Arabia host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will Mojo displace Python as the language of most AI papers on Arxiv by 2030 | 0.17 | Manifold |
Neural nets will out-perform researchers on peer review by end of 2025. | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will Homosexual couples have the same rights as Heterosexual couples worldwide by 2050? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Trump be the 2024 GOP presidential nominee? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2024? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will California legalise online gambling before the end of 2024 | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will Mojo displace Python as the language of most AI papers on Arxiv by 2026 | 0.07 | Manifold |
Given a set of tasks and LLM will be able to manage 90% of the communication with a contractor by 2026 | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030? | 0.13 | Manifold |
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