text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
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|---|---|---|
Will more than 15% of the US population identify as vegan by 2030? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will ZFC no longer be the standard foundation for mathematics by 2050? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will Demis Hassabis still work at Google/Alphabet at the end of 2025? | 0.66 | Manifold |
There will be a major morality scandal around a top English language pingpong announcer before 2041 | 0.41 | Manifold |
Slay the spire bot can beat the basic game 10% of the time before 2027 | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will the new programming language Mojo enter the TIOBE Top 10 popularity index by 2026? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will the new programming language Mojo enter the TIOBE Top 20 popularity index by 2026? | 0.19 | Manifold |
AI: Will someone open-source a $10M model by 2025? | 0.7 | Manifold |
AI: Will someone open-source a $10M model by 2024? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028? | 0.91 | Manifold |
AI "devops" #3: Will there be an AI that can manage a small cluster by 2030? | 0.67 | Manifold |
AI "devops" #2: Will there be an AI that can help manage cloud infrastructure by 2030? | 0.85 | Manifold |
AI "devops" #1: Will there be an AI that can onboard as a dev by 2028? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Putnam Top 100 #4: Will any AI score in the top 100 Putnam scorers by start of 2028? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Putnam Top 100 #3: Will any AI score in the top 100 Putnam scorers by start of 2027? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Putnam Top 100 #2: Will any AI score in the top 100 Putnam scorers by start of 2026? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Putnam Top 100 #1: Will any AI score in the top 100 Putnam scorers by start of 2025? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will Discord IPO by 2024? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will Bosch Mobility achieve 80 billion euros in sales by 2029? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Manifold implement hierarchical groups and subgroups by the end of 2024? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will LLM training costs fall 300x by 2028? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will LLM training costs fall 1,000x by 2028? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat have the Electoral College advantage in any of the next three elections (2024, 2028, or 2032)? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Blackpink release another album before the end of 2024? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will Paris ban most cars in early 2024? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will Btc hit 30,000 USD per share by 2024 | 1 | Manifold |
Will Gladiator 2 gross more than $500M worldwide by the end of 2025? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will we be able to communicate with dogs in English, by 2025? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will we be able to communicate with dogs in English, by 2030? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will a new mainline Star Wars movie be released by 2030? | 0.82 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before 2031? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before 2026? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will a live-action Babylon 5 TV series premiere before 2027? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will Democrats keep control of the Senate in the 2024 elections? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Democrats lose control of the senate in 2024 and 2026, then regain it in 2028? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will Democrats lose control of the senate in 2024, then regain it in 2026? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will One Piece still be publishing new manga in 2030? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Manifold implement native support for conditional pairs by 2024-05-03? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Wolfram Research create a general AI based on replacement rules logic by 2030? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will BRICS currency/ies compose at least 30% of reserves and trade by 2030 | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Emerson Electric's acquisition of National Instruments be consummated before the end of 2024? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will Nano Dimension Ltd's acquisition of Stratasys Ltd be consummated before the end of 2024? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will Express Inc and WHP Global's acquisition of menswear brand Bonobos be consummated before the end of 2024? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will LVMH's acquisition of Platinum Invest Group be consummated before the end of 2024? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will UBS Group AG's acquisition of Credit Suisse US be consummated before the end of 2024? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will Sega Sammy Holdings Inc's acquisition of Rovio Entertainment be consummated before the end of 2024? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will greyhounds become the next trendy dog by 2025? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will the population of the USA decline in the year 2050? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will Amazon's acquisition of iRobot Corp be consummated before the end of 2024? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033? | 0.37 | Manifold |
In 2026, I will consider Starmer a competent Prime Minister | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will AmerisourceBergen and TPG Inc's acquisition of OneOncology be consummated before the end of 2024? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will Toronto-Dominion Bank's acquisition of First Horizon Corp be consummated before the end of 2024? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will CVC Capital and Francisco Partners's acquisition of Network International be consummated before the end of 2024? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Canada's Brookfield Asset Management's acquisition of Network International be consummated before the end of 2024? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Management software company EverCommerce be acquired by another company before the end of 2024? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will InvoCare be acquired by another company before the end of 2024? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will Amphastar Pharmaceuticals's acquisition of Baqsimi from Eli Lilly and Co be consummated before the end of 2024? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will Trillium Capital LLC's acquisition of Getty Images Holdings Inc be consummated before the end of 2024? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will Binance.US's acquisition of Voyager Digital be consummated before the end of 2024? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Carrier Global Corp's acquisition of Viessmann Group's subsidiary be consummated before the end of 2024? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will Godrej Consumer Products Ltd's acquisition of Raymond Consumer Care Ltd be consummated before the end of 2024? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Aging and 99% of diseases will be cured by 2050 | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Pornhub unblocks access in Utah before the end of 2024? | 0.79 | Manifold |
10% or more working Britons will only work a 4 day week by 2030 or at any time before | 0.71 | Manifold |
Pickleball gold medals had been awarded at Olympics before 2045 | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk step down from being Tesla CEO by the end of 2025? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will any OECD country effectively introduce a form of UBI before 2033? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will Texas firearms regulations become more restrictive by 2030, as tracked by Wikipedia's "Gun laws in Texas" | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will Washington firearms regulations become more restrictive by 2030, as tracked by Wikipedia's "Gun laws in Washington" | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will New Mexico firearms regulations become more restrictive by 2030, as tracked by Wikipedia's "Gun laws in New Mexico" | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2030) | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2035) | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will a flat earther be elected to a state or federal office in the U.S. by the end of 2028? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will IsaacKing regain his trustworthy-ish badge within a year (5/2/2024)? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will CARB Proposed In-Use Locomotive Regulation be shown to cause freight/passenger diversion to vehicles before by 2030 | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will the Apple Watch be able to properly monitor blood pressure by 2030? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will SpaceX's non-launch revenue exceed its launch revenue before 2025? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will the next book of the "The Second Apocalypse" series be released before June 1, 2025? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will there be an AI news anchor on BBC before 2024 starts? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will Merck’'s acquisition of Prometheus Biosciences be consummated before the end of 2024? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will JPMorgan’'s acquisition of First Republic be consummated before the end of 2024? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Astellas's acquisition of Iveric Bio be consummated before the end of 2024? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will Alexandra Elbakyan (Founder of Sci-Hub) enter the US or US Territory before 2043? | 0.3 | Manifold |
On June 1st 2027 will Sci-Hub be working again? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard be consummated before the end of 2024? | 0.9 | Manifold |
Will the Albertsons/Kroger Merger be Consummated before the end of 2024? | 0.68 | Manifold |
A major hollywood movie about Covid comes out portraying the CCP negatively before 2035 | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will Mint Mobile still offer $15 per month phone plan to new customers by the end of 2024? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment at the end of 2024? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk step down from being head of Twitter before the end of Dec 2024? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk step down from being head of Twitter before the end of Jun 2024? | 1 | Manifold |
Will the LDS church's Russia temple be completed and operating before the end of 2026? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will the LDS church's Russia temple be completed and operating before the end of 2025? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will the LDS church's Russia temple be completed and operating before the end of 2024? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will the LDS church's Shanghai temple be completed and operating before the end of 2026? | 0.39 | Manifold |
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