text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will the LDS church's Shanghai temple be completed and operating before the end of 2025? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will the LDS church's Shanghai temple be completed and operating before the end of 2024? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater before 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater before 2030? | 0.15 | Manifold |
In 2030, will LLMs be sending messages to coordinate with one another, whether we can decode them or not? | 0.62 | Manifold |
By 2040, AIs will be as good as the best human at any task that can be performed on a computer at that time and as fast | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will someone surpass the portfolio value of @NinthCause anytime before the end of Dec 2024 | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will someone surpass the portfolio value of @NinthCause anytime before the end of Jun 2024 | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will Nostr Significantly Gain on Mastodon By June 2024? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will Nostr Hit Over 50k Stars on Github by June 2024? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will a sixth DGG sub tier be added before 2030? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Nintendo release a successor to their Switch console before the end of September, 2024? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will Kobo Kanaeru have more YouTube subscribers than any Hololive Japan member by the end of 2025? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will Bob Ferguson run for WA Governor in 2024? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will Hilary Franz run for Governor of WA in 2024? | 1 | Manifold |
Will the United States face serious economic consequences for debt, inflation, running out of cash, etc. by 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
By 2030, will dishwashers be considered as safe and effective as washing dishes by hand? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will @IsaacKing have positive profit before the end of 2024? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will there be an independent Cascadia before 2100? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will someone kill an AI researcher to save the world by the end of 2025? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will something totally cuckoo and absolutely bananas happen before 2030? | 0.95 | Manifold |
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or greater before 2030? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Norway reach its goal of 100 percent zero-emission car sales by 2025? | 0.2 | Manifold |
A Nobel prize in medicine award statement mentions Parkinson's disease before 2037 | 0.55 | Manifold |
Over 90% of the nypd will resign or be destroyed by the time capitalism collapses in 2026 | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Bluesky end up like Clubhouse and people return to Twitter by 2024? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will a crochet machine exist before 2026? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will an orexin antagonist be the best long term sleeping drug in 2030 | 0.63 | Manifold |
In 2025 in a twitter poll, 30% of respondents will think that AutoGPTs currently ruthlessly optimise for their goals | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will Social Security cease to be by 2030? | 0.1 | Manifold |
AI will run a $1bn+ outperforming market hedge fund by 2030 where I am 80% sure that AI is doing ~all functions | 0.23 | Manifold |
There will be one LLM/AI that is at least 10x better than all others in 2027 | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will at least 10 countries have some form of bans on language AI coded into law by 2027? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will there be an AI language model that surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will 25% of EU citizens be cognitively augmented humans by 2040? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will 25% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2040? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will there be a skyhook space structure placed in LEO before 2035? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will Crossrail 2 be approved before 2030? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will a plan to connect Edinburgh to London via high-speed rail be approved before 2050? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will a plan to connect Edinburgh to London via high-speed rail be approved before 2045? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will a plan to connect Edinburgh to London via high-speed rail be approved before 2040? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will a plan to connect Edinburgh to London via high-speed rail be approved before 2035? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will a plan to connect Edinburgh to London via high-speed rail be approved before 2030? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will a plan to connect Leeds to London via high-speed rail be approved before 2035? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will a plan to connect Liverpool to London via high-speed rail be approved before 2035? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will a high-speed rail line between London and Manchester in the UK be operational before 2045? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will there be more than 20,000 Subway stores at the end of 2024? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will there be more than 20,000 Subway stores at the end of 2025? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will there be more McDonald stores than Starbucks stores in the US at the end of 2025? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will there be more McDonald stores than Starbucks stores in the US at the end of 2024? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will Qiaochu Yuan get a girlfriend by end of 2024? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will Christine Lagarde still be the president of the ECB the 1st November of 2027? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will California have a lower GDP per capital than at most nine countries in the world in 2050? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 elections? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will Israel still be rated "Free" in the Freedom in the World 2024 Report (covering the year 2023)? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will the Chinese Yuan be among the top 3 global payments currencies before 2030? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will Alexei Navalny be released from prison before 2033? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Trump's favourables will be above 40% in a poll of polls in April 2024 | 0.51 | Manifold |
Whole primate brain connectome by 2030 | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will ADHD medication alteration be proven true by 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will the five most valuable members of the S&P 500 be more than 21% of the index's value in 2025? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will Vladimir Putin step foot in Ukraine by the end of 2024? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will Ron DeSantis be one of the top two candidates in the 2024 New Hampshire Republican primary? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will Ron DeSantis be one of the top two candidates in the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will db40b4e0edec3e60a660c6091e309a702d5c712b7eb83e3ce6acad9c5382f9c4 | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will the UK return the Kohinoor Diamond to India before 2030? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will video-creating AIs make Hollywood movies significantly cheaper to make by 2033? | 0.92 | Manifold |
Probability for Biden to be the 2024 Democratic Nominee at end of July 2023 (10x zoomed in probability within [85%,95%]) | 0.16 | Manifold |
Probability for Biden to be the 2024 Democratic Nominee at end of June 2023 (10x zoomed in probability within [85%,95%]) | 0.29 | Manifold |
Probability for Biden to be the 2024 Democratic Nominee at end of May 2023 (10x zoomed in probability within [85%,95%]) | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Manifold Reach 9000 Monthly Active Users in 2023? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will Manifold Reach 8800 Monthly Active Users in 2023? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will Manifold Reach 8600 Monthly Active Users in 2023? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will Manifold Reach 8400 Monthly Active Users in 2023? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Manifold Reach 8200 Monthly Active Users in 2023? | 1 | Manifold |
If Trump loses the 2024 election, will he run again in 2028? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Ron DeSantis be the Republican nominee for president in 2028? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2027? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2026? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2025? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will PredictIt cease balance withdrawal anytime through 2024? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will Destiny lose his cool over the stupid portal question again before 2024? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will PredictIt still be operating markets through June 2024? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Manifold Reach 8000 Monthly Active Users in 2023? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will Destiny Reach 1,000,000 Subscribers In 2024 | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will AI get at least bronze on the IMO by 2025? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Conditional on AI getting at least bronze on the IMO, will it get gold by 2025? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will Jason Luo (CEO of BitForex exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will Curis Wang (former CEO of Bitrue Exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will rationalussy be a major topic in the 2024 presidential debates? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will Trump be indicted again before Election Day 2024? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Koichiro Wada (CEO of Coincheck exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Leon Li (CEO of Huobi exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Canada become a fascist dictatorship by 2050? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will there be a country with Universal Basic Income by 2030? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Susanna Clarke release another book by the end of 2029? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will GLP-1 agonists help stop or reverse the US obesity trend by end of 2027 | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Jim Cramer be convicted of any type of financial crime in relation to Mad Money predictions before 2040? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will agent-LLM-populated virtual worlds be popular in 2024? | 0.42 | Manifold |
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