text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2024 Presidential election? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Jacob Steinhardt play Starcraft 2 again and place as Gold League or higher by 2030? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Paul Christiano play Starcraft 2 again and place as Gold League or higher by 2030? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Can I buy humane egg certs by 2024-04-28? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Qiaochu Yuan get a job for a period of time lasting more than 4 months by 2030? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will Maduro win the most votes in the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election if running against an opposition candidate? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will ChatGPT or Bing be the most popular LLM chatbot at the end of 2024? | 0.78 | Manifold |
If Avraham Eisenberg does not enter a guilty plea, will he be found guilty of a felony before 2028? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will an American Astronaut and a Chinese Taikonaut shake hands on the surface of the moon before 2035? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Aurora Innovation's driverless vehicle control system be used commercially by the end of 2024? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will Bryan Caplan publicly apologize for saying something controversial by end of 2028? | 0.17 | Manifold |
DPP wins 2024 Taiwanese election? (Yes) → Chinese Annexation of Half of Taiwan by 2050 | 0.49 | Manifold |
DPP wins 2024 Taiwanese election? (No) → Chinese Annexation of Half of Taiwan by 2050 | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will simulation theory become the world's #1 religion before 2050? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will @emily.bsky.team see a stranger using bluesky on public transit before 2024? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will @emily.bsky.team see a stranger using Bluesky on public transit for the first time before 2024-04-22? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will Blue Sky reveal an official term for 'posts' by April 14th, 2024? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will @qephatziel.bsky.social's account cease to exist by the end of 2024? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will personally-produced data be considered personal property according to US law by 2040? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk step down from being Tesla CEO before June 2024? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk step down from being Tesla CEO before May 2024? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk step down from being Tesla CEO before Apr 2024? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will the US implement a policy for rapid shutdown of large compute clusters and training runs by 2028? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will the US establish a clear AI developer liability framework for AI harms by 2028? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will the US implement AI incident reporting requirements by 2028? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will the US create an antitrust safe harbor for AI safety & security collaboration by 2028? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will the US fund defensive information security R&D for limiting unintended proliferation of dangerous AI models by 2028 | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will the US implement testing and evaluation requirements for frontier AI models by 2028? | 0.82 | Manifold |
Will the US implement information security requirements for frontier AI models by 2028? | 0.88 | Manifold |
Will the US require a license to develop frontier AI models by 2028? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will the US implement a policy to track and license cutting-edge chips in large clusters by 2028? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will the USA become a fascist dictatorship by 2050? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will the US require hardware security features on cutting-edge chips by 2028? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will the US implement software export controls for frontier AI models by 2028? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will Will Levis be selected for a Pro Bowl before 2034? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will there be 2,000 or more drug overdose deaths recorded in King County, WA, USA in 2028? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will there be 2,000 or more drug overdose deaths recorded in King County, WA, USA in 2028? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US presidential election? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will Garvin Newsom win the 2024 US presidential election? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Ron Desantis win the 2024 US presidential election? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US presidential election? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US presidential election? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will the Republican party win the 2024 U.S. presidential election? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will the democratic party win the 2024 U.S. presidential election? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will Back Young Heo (CEO of Bithumb exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Lin Han (CEO of Gate.io exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will San Diego State be in the Pac12 for the 2024 football season? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will season 2 of Arcane come out in 2024? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will a GPT-4 quality model be trained for less than tuition by 2030? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will a GPT-4 quality model be trained for under $10.000 by 2030? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will the Roman Catholic Church permit the ordination of female priests by 2050? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will Lauren Boebert be reelected in CO-3 in 2024? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will a Democratic presidential candidate win Texas before 2033? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will viral gain-of-function research be significantly more restricted in the US on 01/01/2030? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will the GFF have 4700+ donors after 2023? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will IGeL-Monitor.de evaluate another IGeL as "negative" by 2030? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will a member of U.S. Congress be censured or expelled prior to the 2024 U.S. general election? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will Magnus Carlsen play Trackmania or appear on steam with Wirtual before 2029 | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will Microsoft 365 Copilot launch in Q1 2024? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will a GPT-3 quality model be trained for under $1,000 by 2030? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will a GPT-3 quality model be trained for under $10.000 by 2030? | 0.93 | Manifold |
Will Taiwan join the UN by the end of 2030? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Roblox increase the friend limit to more than 200 users for any players before 2040? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Facebook increase its friend limit beyond 5000 friends by 2028? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will Daniel Zhang (CEO of Alibaba) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Wael Sawan (CEO of Shell) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will an LLM have an epic name by 2024? | 0.82 | Manifold |
Registry AND Firmware (No) → More than 10 frontier AI labs before 2030? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will the total number of laterals in the 2024 NFL season exceed the total number in the 2023 season? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will GPT-3 training be less than a burrito? (2030) | 0.49 | Manifold |
US Datacenter Registry (Yes) → More than 10 frontier AI labs before 2030? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will there be another horizontal/airlaunch rocket launch from the UK before 2025? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will an image generator be capable of asking clarifying questions about an ambiguous prompt by the end of 2024? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (No) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will there be at least a "close call" with a powerful misaligned AI before 2100? | 0.82 | Manifold |
Will someone besides FiveThirtyEight publish Nate Silver’s 2024 general election model? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will humans have sex in space by 2030? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will Isaac King's balance become positive before the end of 2024? | 0.99 | Manifold |
By 2033, will TikTok DJs face competition from at least one AI DJ? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will Apple release a smartphone that can securely attach to the skin while biking by the end of 2027? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will Apple release a smartphone that can securely attach to the skin while biking by the end of 2027? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will Canada implement a national pharmacare program before 2026? | 0.59 | Manifold |
If DeSantis runs and loses nomination to Trump in 2024, will he ever be President? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Joe Biden Survive Until Inauguration Day 2029? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will AI be able to accurately do my taxes by EOY 2026? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on an episode of The Joe Rogan Experience and have it air before 2024? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk travel to space by 2035? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will some combination of the major cryonics companies accidentally thaw at least two patients before 2030? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will Tesla greenlight open-access autonomous ridesharing by end of 2024? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will Tucker Carlson Carlson announce he is running for president in 2024 before July 2023 | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will Biden live until Election Day in 2024? | 0.94 | Manifold |
Will the WPR list Haiti as experiencing 'civil war' on its country stability tracker before 2030? | 0.43 | Manifold |
By 2033 will we have seen a period of at least 24 months where there are no smart contract exploits "stealing" crypto? | 0.12 | Manifold |
By 2035 will any building surpass the height of the Burj Khalifa? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Before 2033 will the expert consensus be that formal methods are the best way to avoid $million smart contract exploits? | 0.81 | Manifold |
A biomarker test to measure progression for Parkinson's Disease is available in the US before 2029 | 0.7 | Manifold |
Biological test for early detection of Parkinson's Disease before 2031 | 0.78 | Manifold |
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