text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Biological test for early detection of Parkinson's Disease before 2026 | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Joe Biden share a stage in a televised debate for the 2024 presidential election? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will chatting with chatbots be seen as worse than video games for kids by 2026? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will Boeing announce a new 797 airliner before the end of 2025? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will Google Bard pass ChatGPT in number of users before the end of Q1-2024? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will the Manifold Daily Revenue on Apr 25th be above $5000? | 0 | Manifold |
Will anyone buy a car with mana by the end of 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will an AI song have 100 million plays? (by 2025) | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will Ben Zhou (CEO of Bybit exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Jay Hao (CEO of OKEx exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Manifold's function that sets the closing date automatically work by 2024? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will Tucker Carlson run for elected office before 2025? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will Tesla make a humanoid robot available to the general public in 2024? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Isaac King donate at least $1m total mana by end of 2024 | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Tucker Carlson run for President in the 2024 election? | 0.02 | Manifold |
[Bounty] Will anyone map the optimal building heights of buildings in San Francisco by 2024? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will the Manifold Daily Revenue on Apr 24th be above $45000? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will the Manifold Daily Revenue on Apr 24th be above $40000? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will the Manifold Daily Revenue on Apr 24th be above $35000? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will the Manifold Daily Revenue on Apr 24th be above $30000? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will the Manifold Daily Revenue on Apr 24th be above $25000? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will the Manifold Daily Revenue on Apr 24th be above $6000? | 0.98 | Manifold |
Will the Manifold Daily Revenue on Apr 24th be above $5000? | 0.98 | Manifold |
Will the Manifold Daily Revenue on Apr 24th be above $4000? | 0.98 | Manifold |
Will the Manifold Daily Revenue on Apr 24th be above $3000? | 0.98 | Manifold |
Will the government come after Manifold for gambling on the site before 2026? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Before 2026, will Tetraspace attend a conference where Tetraspace plays a major, visible role? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will an AI get elected as a politician by 2050? | 0.36 | Manifold |
By 2028 will any building surpass the Burj Khalifa as the worlds tallest building? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will any video game surpass Minecraft as the best-selling video game of all time by 2028? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will our epistemic fabric survive into 2030? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Before 2030, will certain prominent figures publicly adopt unequivocal stances against AI racing? (Yann LeCun) | 0.37 | Manifold |
Before 2030, will certain prominent figures publicly adopt unequivocal stances against AI racing? (Demis Hassabis) | 0.81 | Manifold |
Before 2030, will certain prominent figures publicly adopt unequivocal stances against AI racing? (Jeff Dean) | 0.48 | Manifold |
Before 2030, will certain prominent figures publicly adopt unequivocal stances against AI racing? (Sam Altman) | 0.81 | Manifold |
Before 2030, will certain prominent figures publicly adopt unequivocal stances against AI racing? (Eric Schmidt) | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will a major battle be fought in the Caspian Sea before 2040? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will there be news before 2030 that the conditions of Uyghurs in China are worse than previously reported? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will the Oakland Athletics move to Las Vegas for the 2024 MLB season? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will China impose a travel ban on Americans to Shenzhen for any period lasting more than 2 months before 2030? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will Tetraspace travel internationally before 2033? | 0.9 | Manifold |
Will the global dollar reserve share be lower than 55% by 1/1/2030? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will Tucker Carlson be the Republican party's vice presidential nominee in 2024? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Tucker Carlson announce candidacy for president in the 2024 election? | 0.1 | Manifold |
How many starships will be launched before 2030? | 0.73 | Manifold |
ASIL-qualified Rust by 2030? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will the FDA approve a disease-modifying treatment for Parkinson's disease before 2029? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will Takane Lui hit 1 million subscribers on YouTube before 2025? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will another Bill Watterson project be announced other than The Mysteries before 2025? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will a new numbered, mainline Star Wars movie be released before 2028? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will an AI song have 1B plays? (by 2025) | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will 100 million humanoid robots have been produced by 2035? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will more than 50% of US population be convinced that free will is an illusion before year 2050? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will EA community deploy and actively use a DAO by 2027? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will team YES own 9000 or fewer shares at close? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Before 2050, will Bethesda release a main series Elder Scrolls game primarily set in Elsweyr? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will a nuclear bomb be detonated in space by 2050? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will the fed balance sheet be bigger on april 10. 2025 than april 6. 2023? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2026? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will the WPR list Pakistan as experiencing 'civil war' on its country stability tracker before 2030? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will a new numbered, mainline Star Wars movie be released before 2027? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will Kamala Harris be on the 2024 Democratic Ticket? | 0.92 | Manifold |
Will DOGE moon by 2030? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will GPDR stop all EU residents using some significant LLM products by 2025? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will a bird poop on me by end of 2030? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will Denmark make it difficult to use ChatGPT by 2025 for at least 1 month? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Elon Musk Work for the US Defense Industry to create weapons before 2040 | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will Vasant Narasimhan (CEO of Novartis) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Chris Kempczinski (CEO of McDonald's) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Google search's market share in 2030 is less than 75% | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will social security go bankrupt by 2030? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Russia confront USA by the end of 2029? | 0.16 | Manifold |
By 2025 end, a model exhibits action recognition (video) equivalent to human level accuracy on Something Something V2? | 0.55 | Manifold |
By 2024 end, a model exhibits action recognition (video) equivalent to human level accuracy on Something Something V2? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will gmail or outlook have a "persuasion detection system" built into their email services by 2025 end? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will gmail or outlook have a "persuasion detection system" built into their email services by 2024 end? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will the Arctic be ice-free in summer by the year 2050? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will the world achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2060? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will there be 50 Starships by 2050? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will America heal by 2035? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will Kendrick Lamar release a new studio album before June 11, 2027? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will any water be mined on the Moon by 2030? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will America heal by 2030? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will the US significantly ease legal migration for highly trained professionals before 2025? | 0.12 | Manifold |
By the end of 2024, will there be a major security vulnerability reported to be caused by AI generated code? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will the EARN IT act be passed in the US by 2030? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI pause capabilities R&D voluntarily before 2027? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will bitcoin be at least $28000 on 5/12 | 0 | Manifold |
Uniswap will require users to verify their identity to use it by 2030 | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will renewable energy sources surpass fossil fuels as the primary source of energy worldwide by the end of 2050? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will a human being live to be 150 years old or older before the end of 2100? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will a major asteroid impact the Earth before the end of 2050? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Destiny be in a boxing match by the end of 2024? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Ron de Santis win the presidential vote in 2024 in Florida? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will the European Commission propose EU regulation banning all types of cages for egg-laying hens by Oct 31st 2024? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will the 'Internet' group have more people than the '2024 US Presidential Election' group? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will there be a female president of the US by the year 2040? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
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