text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will FDA approve an “AI doctor” for primary care by 2025? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will FDA approve an “AI doctor” for primary care before 2030? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will a war on aging be declared by 2033? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will a drug to be used by most healthy adults be approved by 2043 year end? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will a US city ban meat sales before 2030? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will the Rational Animations YouTube channel cross 50 million views before 2025? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will the Rational Animations YouTube channel cross 25 million views before 2024? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Chinese nationals are no longer able to work for OpenAI or Anthropic in the US before 2030 | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will Starship launch one hundred times by 2030? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will Starship make daily intercontinental flights by 2050? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Starship fly intercontinental by 2030? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will there be 20 Starships by 2050? | 0.89 | Manifold |
Will there be 100 Starships by 2050? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will an LLM be able to solve a Rubik's Cube by 2025? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will it be possible to have any ebook turned into a human-like audiobook by 2024? | 0.95 | Manifold |
Will quantum computers, or any other type of computer, be able to crack bitcoin's ECDSA signatures before 2050? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will Jeff Bezos endorse Joe Biden for the 2024 presidental election? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will The Elder Scrolls 6 release before the end of 2027? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will it be possible to generate a 1h+ movie from a book in 2027? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will the Global Partnership on AI remain active by the following years? (2026) | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will the Global Partnership on AI remain active by the following years? (2031) | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Major archaeological discovery rivaling Göbekli Tepe by 2043? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will it be possible to generate a 1h+ movie from a book in 2026? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will the world's population reach 10 billion people by the end of 2050? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will a major world war occur before the end of 2050? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will a woman be elected as the President of the United States before the end of 2040? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will any currency overtake the US dollar in international trade by 2050? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will Starship launch at least 5 times in 2024? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will G7 countries eliminate plastic pollution by 2040? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will Germany introduce an equity reserve for pensions before 2026? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Midjourney allows sexy prompts before July 2024 | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will the ADVANCE Act for nuclear energy become law by the end of 2024? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Midjourney v7 comes out before 2024 | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will AI take over most mental health therapy jobs by end of 2030? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will the trucking industry be automated by end of 2030? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI have the best LLM in 2024? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will it be possible to generate a 1h+ movie from a book in 2025? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will the US Supreme Court take up a A.I. copyright case before 2025? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will the Oakland A's play a home game in their new stadium in Las Vegas by 2027? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will Bitcoin be at least $28000 on Friday 5/5 | 1 | Manifold |
Will a robot be capable of sculpting marble at the level of world-class sculptors before 2040? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will humans be an endangered species by 2100? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will Robert Lewandowski and Anna Lewandowska stay married through 2030? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Chess Streamer relationships+ before 2035 | 0.3 | Manifold |
Midjourney is credited by name in a movie which is nominated for an Oscar before 4/2028 | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will the ANC win a majority in the 2024 South African general election? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will there be candidates with "ChatGPT" in their names in the 2024 Brazilian municipal elections? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Hansonian "Foom Liability Insurance" be made available before 2025? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Song Chi-hyung (founder of Dunamu, Upbit exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will catgirls walk among us by 2030 | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will any MCU actor other than Jonathan Majors be excluded from an upcoming film due to their behaviour before 2027? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will Manifold be mentioned in a mainstream Hollywood movie before 2030? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will we see a widely adopted reform to the 40 hour work week in the US before 2030? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will the show “Modern Family” have a reboot or spin-off before 2030? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will Wikipedia credit gain-of-function research as possible cause for COVID by 2024? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will Buntanetap from Annovis Bio receive FDA approval before 2028? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will Saudi–Egypt Causeway be open to public by 2040? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will France nuke itself from 2100 ft. in Minecraft? [self-editing] | 0.98 | Manifold |
Will 2025 be the warmest year on record? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will SpaceX build a flame trench for Starship before 2026? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will Willy Chertman win an Emergent Ventures fellowship before 2027? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will anyone other than Trump or Desantis ever be front-runner for 2024 Republican nomination (judged by markets)? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will the Electoral College map of the 2024 presidential election be the same as 2020? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will another Starship successfully launch before 2024? | 0.89 | Manifold |
Will Google Drive keep 15GB of storage for free Google account until 2025? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Musk LLM Release before 2024? (No) → Elon Musk World's Richest Person 2025 | 0.4 | Manifold |
Musk LLM Release before 2024? (Yes) → Elon Musk World's Richest Person 2025 | 0.55 | Manifold |
US Recession before 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | 0.6 | Manifold |
US Government Shutdown Before 2024 (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | 0.61 | Manifold |
US Government Shutdown Before 2024 (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Armed Conflict China/Taiwan by 2024 (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Armed Conflict China/Taiwan by 2024 (Yes) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025? | 0.1 | Manifold |
US Recession before 2024? (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will there be ten or more starships that depart for mars in 2026? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Ariane 7 fly before 2040? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Mick Schumacher have a Formula 1 (F1) race seat in 2024? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will SpaceX fly a reusable Falcon 9 second stage before 2030? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Daniel Ricciardo have a Formula 1 (F1) race seat in 2024? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will a major earthquake with a magnitude of 8.5 or greater occur in the Pacific Ring of Fire before the end of 2025? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will FDA approve more than 10 new mRNA based vaccines before 2030? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will FDA approve more than 10 new mRNA based vaccines before 2028? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win Georgia for President by 2050? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win Arizona for President by 2050? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win Wisconsin for President by 2050? | 0.82 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania for President by 2050? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win Nevada for President by 2050? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win Michigan for President by 2050? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win Minnesota for President by 2050? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win New Hampshire for President by 2050? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win Maine for President by 2050? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win Virginia for President by 2050? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win New Mexico for President by 2050? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win Colorado for President by 2050? | 0.18 | Manifold |
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