text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will a Republican win New Jersey for President by 2050? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win Oregon for President by 2050? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win Illinois for President by 2050? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win Delaware for President by 2050? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win Washington for President by 2050? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win Connecticut for President by 2050? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win Rhode Island for President by 2050? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win New York for President by 2050? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win California for President by 2050? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win Hawaii for President by 2050? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win Massachusetts for President by 2050? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win Vermont for President by 2050? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will a Republican win D.C. for President by 2050? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win Iowa for President by 2050? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win Ohio for President by 2050? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win Alaska for President by 2050? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win South Carolina for President by 2050? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win Kansas for President by 2050? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win Missouri for President by 2050? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win Indiana for President by 2050? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win Montana for President by 2050? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win Mississippi for President by 2050? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win Nebraska for President by 2050? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win Louisiana for President by 2050? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win Tennessee for President by 2050? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win Alabama for President by 2050? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win Kentucky for President by 2050? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win Arkansas for President by 2050? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win North Carolina for President by 2050? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win Florida for President by 2050? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win Texas for President by 2050? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win Idaho for President by 2050? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win Oklahoma for President by 2050? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win South Dakota for President by 2050? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win North Dakota for President by 2050? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win West Virginia for President by 2050? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win Wyoming for President by 2050? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win Utah for President by 2050? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Ivanka Trump be elected President in 2040? | 0.08 | Manifold |
If the 2024 Republican nominee is neither Trump nor Desantis, will the Republicans win the election? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will there be evidence in 2025 that in April 2023, OpenAI had a GPT-4.5 or higher model? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will there be significant protests calling for AI rights before 2030? | 0.53 | Manifold |
AI custom clothes design and tailoring service before 2033 | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will Tesla stock have a new all time high before 2040? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will Nik Airball become personan non grata in the Poker community before 2026 | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky go on the Hear This Idea podcast by the end of 2024? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Midjourney images can be effectively watermarked by 5/2025 | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will any EU country implement a universal basic income before 2030? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will Shudong teach in 2024 Spring? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Does Victor Wembanyama win NBA MVP by 2030 | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025? | 0.17 | Manifold |
If Trump is not the GOP nominee, will an independent candidate get more than 5% of the 2024 vote? [Swift Centre] | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will an independent/third party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 election? [Swift Centre] | 0.15 | Manifold |
Tesla's Model 3 Standard Range RWD starting price will be below 40000$ in the US at the end of the year | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will the US support a negotiated settlement in Ukraine by the end of 2024? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will Google still be a big tech giant by the end of 2030? | 0.92 | Manifold |
Will a Star Trek and Star Wars crossover movie or TV show be made before 2060? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will Victoria, Australia legislate to replace Stamp Duty (property sales tax) with a land value tax before 2027? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Manifold will have rate-of-return leaderboards by 2024-04-18? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will New Orleans get a Major League Baseball team before 2030? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Manifold will have leaderboard "leagues" based on portfolio size by 2024-04-18? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will Ivanka Trump be elected President in 2036? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Fumio Kishida win Japan's next election (31 Oct 2025 or earlier)? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Manifold will ban markets that can be manipulated by alts, by 2024-04-18? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will San Juan get a Major League Baseball team before 2030? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will Nashville get a Major League Baseball team before 2030? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will Mexico City get a Major League Baseball team before 2030? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will San Antonio get a Major League Baseball team before 2030? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Tokyo get a Major League Baseball team before 2030? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Las Vegas get a Major League Baseball team before 2030? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will Charlotte get a Major League Baseball team before 2030? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will Portland get a Major League Baseball team before 2030? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will Salt Lake City get a Major League Baseball team before 2030? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will filing taxes in the US be substantially easier in 2028 than 2023? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will Barron Trump be elected President in 2044? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will China successfully propulsively land a rocket first stage before 2027? | 0.72 | Manifold |
How many people will live in coffins with VR headsets in 2035 | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will Ilya Yashin be alive and out of custody by the start of 2025? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will Vladimir Kara-Murza be alive and out of custody by the start of 2025? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will Ceres Fauna hit 1 million subscribers on YouTube before 2025? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will Alireza Firouzja be World Chess Champion by end of 2040? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will Barron Trump be elected President in 2040? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Ivanka Trump be elected President in 2032? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will a descendant of American slaves be President by 2099? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will AOC be elected President in 2036? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Barron Trump be elected President in 2036? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Biological test for early detection of Parkinson's Disease by 2028 | 0.58 | Manifold |
Shohei Ohtani starts a game with the Mets before June 2024 | 0.04 | Manifold |
How many U.S. House seats will be flipped in the 2024 elections? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will Republicans maintain control of the House of Representatives in the 2024 elections? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will a solopreneur billionaire emerge by 2028 year-end? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk's ChatGPT competitor, TruthGPT (or whatever it ends up being called) be out by the end of 2024? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will any market on Manifold get more than 3000 unique traders in 2023? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk's ChatGPT competitor, TruthGPT (or whatever it ends up being called) be out by the end of Q3 2024? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Alzheimer’s be curable by 2027? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk's ChatGPT competitor, TruthGPT (or whatever it ends up being called) be out by the end of Q2 2024? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk's ChatGPT competitor, TruthGPT (or whatever it ends up being called) be out by the end of Q1 2024? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will a new pandemic emerge and be declared by WHO before the end of 2024? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will AOC be elected President in 2032? | 0.04 | Manifold |
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