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Will a Republican win New Jersey for President by 2050?
0.41
Manifold
Will a Republican win Oregon for President by 2050?
0.35
Manifold
Will a Republican win Illinois for President by 2050?
0.34
Manifold
Will a Republican win Delaware for President by 2050?
0.41
Manifold
Will a Republican win Washington for President by 2050?
0.15
Manifold
Will a Republican win Connecticut for President by 2050?
0.41
Manifold
Will a Republican win Rhode Island for President by 2050?
0.45
Manifold
Will a Republican win New York for President by 2050?
0.33
Manifold
Will a Republican win California for President by 2050?
0.19
Manifold
Will a Republican win Hawaii for President by 2050?
0.15
Manifold
Will a Republican win Massachusetts for President by 2050?
0.19
Manifold
Will a Republican win Vermont for President by 2050?
0.2
Manifold
Will a Republican win D.C. for President by 2050?
0.1
Manifold
Will a Democrat win Iowa for President by 2050?
0.51
Manifold
Will a Democrat win Ohio for President by 2050?
0.6
Manifold
Will a Democrat win Alaska for President by 2050?
0.65
Manifold
Will a Democrat win South Carolina for President by 2050?
0.2
Manifold
Will a Democrat win Kansas for President by 2050?
0.55
Manifold
Will a Democrat win Missouri for President by 2050?
0.39
Manifold
Will a Democrat win Indiana for President by 2050?
0.39
Manifold
Will a Democrat win Montana for President by 2050?
0.57
Manifold
Will a Democrat win Mississippi for President by 2050?
0.36
Manifold
Will a Democrat win Nebraska for President by 2050?
0.45
Manifold
Will a Democrat win Louisiana for President by 2050?
0.49
Manifold
Will a Democrat win Tennessee for President by 2050?
0.49
Manifold
Will a Democrat win Alabama for President by 2050?
0.22
Manifold
Will a Democrat win Kentucky for President by 2050?
0.31
Manifold
Will a Democrat win Arkansas for President by 2050?
0.22
Manifold
Will a Democrat win North Carolina for President by 2050?
0.75
Manifold
Will a Democrat win Florida for President by 2050?
0.5
Manifold
Will a Democrat win Texas for President by 2050?
0.7
Manifold
Will a Democrat win Idaho for President by 2050?
0.41
Manifold
Will a Democrat win Oklahoma for President by 2050?
0.25
Manifold
Will a Democrat win South Dakota for President by 2050?
0.27
Manifold
Will a Democrat win North Dakota for President by 2050?
0.21
Manifold
Will a Democrat win West Virginia for President by 2050?
0.34
Manifold
Will a Democrat win Wyoming for President by 2050?
0.2
Manifold
Will a Democrat win Utah for President by 2050?
0.59
Manifold
Will Ivanka Trump be elected President in 2040?
0.08
Manifold
If the 2024 Republican nominee is neither Trump nor Desantis, will the Republicans win the election?
0.42
Manifold
Will there be evidence in 2025 that in April 2023, OpenAI had a GPT-4.5 or higher model?
0.18
Manifold
Will there be significant protests calling for AI rights before 2030?
0.53
Manifold
AI custom clothes design and tailoring service before 2033
0.34
Manifold
Will Tesla stock have a new all time high before 2040?
0.66
Manifold
Will Nik Airball become personan non grata in the Poker community before 2026
0.35
Manifold
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky go on the Hear This Idea podcast by the end of 2024?
0.2
Manifold
Midjourney images can be effectively watermarked by 5/2025
0.26
Manifold
Will any EU country implement a universal basic income before 2030?
0.26
Manifold
Will Shudong teach in 2024 Spring?
0.25
Manifold
Does Victor Wembanyama win NBA MVP by 2030
0.41
Manifold
Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025?
0.17
Manifold
If Trump is not the GOP nominee, will an independent candidate get more than 5% of the 2024 vote? [Swift Centre]
0.47
Manifold
Will an independent/third party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 election? [Swift Centre]
0.15
Manifold
Tesla's Model 3 Standard Range RWD starting price will be below 40000$ in the US at the end of the year
0.36
Manifold
Will the US support a negotiated settlement in Ukraine by the end of 2024?
0.43
Manifold
Will Google still be a big tech giant by the end of 2030?
0.92
Manifold
Will a Star Trek and Star Wars crossover movie or TV show be made before 2060?
0.51
Manifold
Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025?
0.63
Manifold
Will Victoria, Australia legislate to replace Stamp Duty (property sales tax) with a land value tax before 2027?
0.27
Manifold
Manifold will have rate-of-return leaderboards by 2024-04-18?
0.35
Manifold
Will New Orleans get a Major League Baseball team before 2030?
0.2
Manifold
Manifold will have leaderboard "leagues" based on portfolio size by 2024-04-18?
0.99
Manifold
Will Ivanka Trump be elected President in 2036?
0.05
Manifold
Will Fumio Kishida win Japan's next election (31 Oct 2025 or earlier)?
0.4
Manifold
Manifold will ban markets that can be manipulated by alts, by 2024-04-18?
0.31
Manifold
Will San Juan get a Major League Baseball team before 2030?
0.26
Manifold
Will Nashville get a Major League Baseball team before 2030?
0.4
Manifold
Will Mexico City get a Major League Baseball team before 2030?
0.37
Manifold
Will San Antonio get a Major League Baseball team before 2030?
0.33
Manifold
Will Tokyo get a Major League Baseball team before 2030?
0.1
Manifold
Will Las Vegas get a Major League Baseball team before 2030?
0.81
Manifold
Will Charlotte get a Major League Baseball team before 2030?
0.34
Manifold
Will Portland get a Major League Baseball team before 2030?
0.27
Manifold
Will Salt Lake City get a Major League Baseball team before 2030?
0.32
Manifold
Will filing taxes in the US be substantially easier in 2028 than 2023?
0.57
Manifold
Will Barron Trump be elected President in 2044?
0.02
Manifold
Will China successfully propulsively land a rocket first stage before 2027?
0.72
Manifold
How many people will live in coffins with VR headsets in 2035
0.48
Manifold
Will Ilya Yashin be alive and out of custody by the start of 2025?
0.21
Manifold
Will Vladimir Kara-Murza be alive and out of custody by the start of 2025?
0.14
Manifold
Will Ceres Fauna hit 1 million subscribers on YouTube before 2025?
0.29
Manifold
Will Alireza Firouzja be World Chess Champion by end of 2040?
0.42
Manifold
Will Barron Trump be elected President in 2040?
0.04
Manifold
Will Ivanka Trump be elected President in 2032?
0.03
Manifold
Will a descendant of American slaves be President by 2099?
0.84
Manifold
Will AOC be elected President in 2036?
0.04
Manifold
Will Barron Trump be elected President in 2036?
0.02
Manifold
Biological test for early detection of Parkinson's Disease by 2028
0.58
Manifold
Shohei Ohtani starts a game with the Mets before June 2024
0.04
Manifold
How many U.S. House seats will be flipped in the 2024 elections?
0.18
Manifold
Will Republicans maintain control of the House of Representatives in the 2024 elections?
0.45
Manifold
Will a solopreneur billionaire emerge by 2028 year-end?
0.33
Manifold
Will Elon Musk's ChatGPT competitor, TruthGPT (or whatever it ends up being called) be out by the end of 2024?
0.65
Manifold
Will any market on Manifold get more than 3000 unique traders in 2023?
1
Manifold
Will Elon Musk's ChatGPT competitor, TruthGPT (or whatever it ends up being called) be out by the end of Q3 2024?
0.59
Manifold
Will Alzheimer’s be curable by 2027?
0.07
Manifold
Will Elon Musk's ChatGPT competitor, TruthGPT (or whatever it ends up being called) be out by the end of Q2 2024?
0.28
Manifold
Will Elon Musk's ChatGPT competitor, TruthGPT (or whatever it ends up being called) be out by the end of Q1 2024?
0.32
Manifold
Will a new pandemic emerge and be declared by WHO before the end of 2024?
0.1
Manifold
Will AOC be elected President in 2032?
0.04
Manifold