text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will Barron Trump be elected President in 2032? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to
another computer system before 2033? | 0.9 | Manifold |
Doom if AGI by 2040? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will manifold daily active users (DAU) pass the population of Monaco before 2029? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will Artemis II launch before July 2025? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will the GOP ticket in 2024 be multi-racial? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will there be a woman on the GOP ticket in 2024? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will CGP Grey have another video in the Reservations series published on his channel by 2024? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Raphael Nicolle (founder of Bitfinex exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will Giancarlo Devasini (CFO of Bitfinex exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will Alireza Firouzja be World Chess Champion by end of 2030? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will Barron Trump be elected President in 2028? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will AI fully automate Cochrane-style systematic reviews by end of 2025? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will AI fully automate Cochrane-style systematic reviews by end of 2024? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will Ivanka Trump be elected President in 2028? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will climate change be successfully limited to under 2°C at the end of 2045? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will AMF claim to NOT need any additional funding at any point before 2033 | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will Rishi Sunak be replaced as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 1st April 2024? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will Rishi Sunak be replaced as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 1st July 2024? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Rishi Sunak be replaced as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 1st October 2024? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will there be electric passenger helicopters with >100 miles range before 2040? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will more people travel between cities by self driving car than by inter city rail before 2037 | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will at least five reigning* heads of state and government endorse Joe Biden for the 2024 presidential election? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will working as a programmer in the US require certifications/qualifications by 2025? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will electric vehicles make up more than 25% of new US car sales by the end of 2025? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will third-party candidates receive 5% or more of the presidential vote in 2024? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will Apple unveil a new product category (not an upgrade of an existing product) by April 1, 2024? | 0.96 | Manifold |
Will market creators be able to bet on their own market in 2024? | 0.96 | Manifold |
Will Vietnam approve the construction of a Hanoi to Ho Chi Minh City high-speed rail project before 2035? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will ≥1% of Spotify's streams in 2024 consist of AI-generated music? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will the "Care" reaction still be available on Facebook in 2025? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will the Vatican State stop its diplomatic relationship with Taiwan and establish one with China before 2027? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket fly 50 times before 2030? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will Taiwan reach an agreement to join the CPTPP by 2030? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will 3 accounts on the all-time traders leaderboard be inactive at once before 2025? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will Gilmour Space reach orbit before 2024? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will Western democracies spend a total of over 1 billion trying to influence the taiwanese 2024 presidential election? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will the Jakarta-Bandung High Speed Rail officially open before 2024? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will the cost of higher education in the US maintain an average growth rate above 3% until 2040? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Proportional to population, will the number of white collar jobs in the US decrease by five-fold by the year 2040? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Lauren Boebert be elected President in 2028? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will AOC be elected President in 2028? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will Tucker Carlson be elected President in 2028? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Hillary Clinton be elected President in 2028? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Jair Bolsonaro run for the Senate in 2026? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Joe Biden be reelected in 2024? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump be elected President in 2028? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Gavin Newsom be elected President in 2028? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Kamala Harris be elected President in 2028? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will an LLM be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will any Manifold user have more followers on any platform than CGP Grey does on YouTube before 2024? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will Magnus Carlsen still be the best chess player in 2026? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will Magnus Carlsen compete to be World Chess Champion again before 2028? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will Nima Momeni be convicted of first-degree murder of Cash App founder Bob Lee? (before 2026) | 0.9 | Manifold |
Will Stefano Ghisolfi send Burden of Dreams by the end of 2024? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will Pearl Jam release their next studio album before 2024? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Techno-Optimism for 2030 | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will the United Nations pass a resolution banning the development and/or use of autonomous weapons by the end of 2024? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will two Starships dock together in orbit before 2027? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will two Starships dock together in orbit before 2026? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will two Starships dock together in orbit before 2025? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will two Starships dock together in orbit before 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will SpaceX's HLS uncrewed demo launch before 2027? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will SpaceX's HLS uncrewed demo launch before 2026? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will Rodrigo Tacla Duran return to Brazil before 2024? | 0.23 | Manifold |
By 2035, will we have measured an exoplanet atmosphere whose composition is best explained by the presence of life? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will a mission to Ceres be approved before 2030? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will Starship exceed 28000 km/h (=LEO orbital speed) at an altitude of 200km or higher during the "orbital" flight test? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will 10% of the US population own a flying car by 2050? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will Chris Christie win any states in the 2024 GOP primaries? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will 1% of the US population own a flying car by 2050? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Chris Christie win any states in the 2024 GOP primaries? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Asa Hutchinson win any states in the 2024 GOP primaries? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Nikki Haley win any states in the 2024 GOP primaries? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will John Bolton win any states in the 2024 GOP primaries? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will Paul Ryan run for any office in 2024? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Ron Desantis decide not to run for GOP nomination in 2024? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will Alyssa Farah run for any office in 2024? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will Stacey Abrams run for any office in 2024? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will Beto O'Rourke run for any office in 2024? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will Mike Pence run for any office in 2024? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Ivanka Trump run for any office in 2024? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Jared Kushner run for any office in 2024? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will 0.1% of the US population have traveled in a flying car by 2050? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will 0.1% of the US population own a flying car by 2050? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine hold a presidential election in 2026? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine hold a presidential election in 2025? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine hold a presidential election in 2024? | 0.82 | Manifold |
No federal department will exist in 2027 | 0.16 | Manifold |
Federal reserve won't exist in 2027 | 0.09 | Manifold |
USDA won't exist in 2027 | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will Reddit kill the old layout before 2026? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will Canada or Russia set aside any territory specifically for climate migrants before 2100? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will a European or EU army be created before 2040? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Consumer-price inflation in Germany 2024 | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will Russia shoot down a manned NATO military aircraft before 2025? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will Israel annex Judea and Samaria by 2024? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will nuclear energy be a relevant topic in Germany's election 2025? | 0.4 | Manifold |
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