text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will Gerhardt Richter's painting '4096 Farben' (1974) fetch $25mm at auction May 18th? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Ayunda Risu hit 1 million subscribers on YouTube before 2025? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will Shibuya Hal hit 1 million subscribers on YouTube before 2025? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Yozora Mel hit 1 million subscribers on YouTube before 2025? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Sasaki Saku hit 1 million subscribers on YouTube before 2025? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will W. Craig Jelinek (CEO of Costco) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Axel Dumas (CEO of Hermès) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.1 | Manifold |
General health benefits from cold showers, accepted by 2040? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will Pascal Soriot (CEO of AstraZeneca) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will a European/EU army be created before 2030? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will humans make contact with intelligent extraterrestrial life by 2050? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Ethereum's price be above $2500 on May 31st? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Ethereum's price be above $2250 on May 31st? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Ethereum's price be above $2200 on May 31st? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Ethereum's price be above $2150 on May 31st? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Ethereum's price be above $2100 on May 31st? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Ethereum's price be above $2050 on May 31st? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Ethereum's price be above $2250 on April 30th? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Ethereum's price be above $2200 on April 30th? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Ethereum's price be above $2150 on April 30th? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Ethereum's price be above $2050 on April 30th? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Ethereum's price be above $2100 on April 30th? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Manifold be profitable before 2040? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will Manifold be profitable before 2030? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will global heating (directly or indirectly) lead to the collapse of advanced human civilization before 2100? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will a new study on ATCOR be published that my econ friends think is of good quality, before 2025? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will North Korea and South Korea be unified with a formula like 'one country, two systems' by 2030? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will an AI system similar to Auto-GPT make a successful attempt to kill a human by 2030? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will the UK's FTSE 100 end 2025 above 9,000? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will the UK's FTSE 100 end 2024 above 8,500? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will there be a US Constitutional Convention before 2100? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will the suspected US intelligence leaker be convicted before 2026? | 0.94 | Manifold |
Will there be a US Constitutional Convention before 2050? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will the FDA ban avobenzone, octinoxate, or oxybenzone from sunscreens before 2030? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will there be a US Constitutional Convention before 2030? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will the Speaker of the House of Representatives still be in the Presidential line of succession in 2050? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will Blue Origin’s New Glenn be used for the ESCAPADE mission as planned (ie. be ready to launch by August 2024) | 0.41 | Manifold |
Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Grüne) | 0.16 | Manifold |
Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Die Linke) | 0.04 | Manifold |
Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (AfD) | 0.04 | Manifold |
Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (CDU/CSU) | 0.52 | Manifold |
Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (SPD) | 0.31 | Manifold |
Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (FDP) | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will the ECB (deposit facility) interest rate be negative before 2033? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-3 before 2030? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end? (8000M subsidy) | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will any black hole smaller than 10^12kg and larger than 1kg be discovered or created before 2100? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Before 2028, dating app users will commonly have AI-generated younger/hotter images of themselves on their profiles | 0.93 | Manifold |
Will Justice Thomas be impeached before 2024? | 0.04 | Manifold |
JReg will spend time in prison or jail by 2032 | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will every non-Trump US president have studied at law school or served in the military until 2040? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will a new Jet Set Radio game be released before 2026? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will Manifold add a chart for Mana inflation rate on their Stats page by 2024? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Ukraine will have full unambiguous control of bakhmut by 2025 | 0.78 | Manifold |
An AI-lab coordination proposal falls afoul of antitrust regulation by end of 2024 | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will a member of the German cabinet publicly consume cannabis by 2024? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will it be common knowledge that farmed fish, eggs and chicken produce more suffering than other animal products? (2050) | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will Artemis II launch before 2027? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will Artemis II launch before 2026? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will Blue Origin's New Glenn launch before 2026? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will Blue Origin's New Glenn launch before 2025? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will Blue Origin's New Glenn launch before 2027? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will ULA's Vulcan launch before 2024? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will the ban on new onshore wind development in England be lifted by the end of 2024? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will anyone be elected to political office while promising to outsource all their decision-making to an AI before 2025? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Millie Bobby Brown and Jake Bongiovi split by 2026? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will Manifold MANA (Ṁ) be listed on a crypto exchange by 2025? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will KAF hit 1 million subscribers on YouTube before 2025? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will Kenmochi Toya hit 1 million subscribers on YouTube before 2024? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will ironmouse hit 1 million subscribers on YouTube before 2024? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will Inuyama Tamaki / Tsukudani Norio hit 1 million subscribers on YouTube before 2024? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will Hoshikawa Sara hit 1 million subscribers on YouTube before 2024? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Pipkin Pippa hit 10 million subscribers on YouTube before 2027? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will Pipkin Pippa hit 1 million subscribers on YouTube before 2025? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will Scott Alexander bang Aella before 2025? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Scott Alexander bang Eliezer before 2025? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Magnus Carlsen gets a tattoo by 2045 | 0.4 | Manifold |
Magnus Carlsen runs for public office before 2045 | 0.23 | Manifold |
MLB will use an artificially reconstructed voice of a deceased broadcaster to cover at least part of a game by 2030 | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will a Nobel Prize in Physics be given for progress in a Quantum theory of Gravity by 2026? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will sterile neutrinos be detected by 2030? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine win its war with Russia before 2024? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Bluesky have more active users than Mastodon by the end of 2025? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will FTX be considered "relaunched" at the end of 2024? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2050? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will a new Jet Set Radio game be released before 2025? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will this market predict that Joe Biden will be the winner of the US presidential election of 2024? | 0.66 | Manifold |
This market has a 1% probability of being resolved to YES on 2024 election day. | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will a nuclear thermal engine be successfully used to power a spacecraft before 2035? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will a nuclear thermal engine be successfully used to power a spacecraft before 2030? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will an animated movie produced by Illumination based on Nintendo's 'The Legend of Zelda' be released before 2027? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will Selen Tatsuki hit 1 million subscribers on YouTube before 2024? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Minato Aqua hit 2 million subscribers on YouTube before 2024? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will Shigure Ui hit 1 million subscribers on YouTube before 2025? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will Ouro Kronii hit 1 million subscribers on YouTube before 2024? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will Gawr Gura hit 5 million subscribers on YouTube before 2025? | 0.37 | Manifold |
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