text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
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|---|---|---|
By 2035, will AI+robotics make it possible to have kids without taking care of them? (esp if the parents have ADHD?) | 0.36 | Manifold |
By end of 2028, will PornHub have a category for AI-generated porn? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will an LLM be able to solve the Self-Referential Aptitude Test before 2027? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will an LLM be able to solve the Self-Referential Aptitude Test before 2025? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will GPT, or AI systems that have GPT as their main component, become as reliably factual as Wikipedia, before 2026? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Collapse of capitalism: money multiplier will hit 8 by 2025 | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will bitcoin lose >90% of its value due to quantum computers cracking sha256 before 2053? | 0.05 | Manifold |
2024 is the last election america will ever have | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Manifold support additional display formats (e.g. dates or durations) for numeric markets before the end of 2024? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will LeBron James publicly express concern about AI extinction risk before 2024? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Anthropic and OpenAI collaborate substantially on a research paper before 2025? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will the US government enact legislation before 2026 that substantially slows US AI progress? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will The Winds of Winter be released by 2025? | 0.3 | Manifold |
If I don't abandon the site and manifold still exists, I'll have 350k mana in 2025 | 0.5 | Manifold |
Mastodon will be more than 1% as big as Twitter in 2030 | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Scott Alexander have a baby before 2025? | 0.65 | Manifold |
The wti oil contract won't exist in 2027 because 90% of the oil in the world is fake | 0.44 | Manifold |
American oil production will fall by over 10% by 2025 | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will Brazil join China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) until the end of 2027? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will the SDG 2.1 "zero hunger" be achieved by the end of 2035? | 0.23 | Manifold |
(AGI programmer automation) Will my market comp be <3x a median construction worker in April 2025. | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will GPT-5 be announced before 2024 | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk become the CEO of another fortune 500 company before 2026? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will The Boring Company tunnels total passenger capacity exceed 100k/hr by 2026 | 0.44 | Manifold |
Waymo Driverless in Vegas by EOY 2024? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will Twitter muffle Bluesky, like Substack, before 2024? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will a human walk on the moon again before 2033? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will a human walk on the moon again before 2032? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will a human walk on the moon again before 2031? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will either Democratic or Republican party be revealed to have used LLMs for voter prediction in the 2028 US elections? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will either of Democratic or Republican party be revealed to have used LLMs for voter prediction in the 2024 elections? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Google trends for "AI" will be lower in 2024 than in 2023 | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will Visual Studio Code be the most popular IDE in every Stack Overflow Developer Survey until 2030? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will the EU and Indonesia have a free trade agreement by 2025? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will the EU and India have a free trade agreement by 2025? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will the EU and Australia have a free trade agreement by 2025? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will a Trustworthyish account "go rogue" and start resolving markets willy nilly by the end of 2024? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Magnus Carlsen compete in a Candidate's tournament before 2029? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will Apple release a laptop with cellular connectivity by the end of 2024? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will George Mladenov play Survivor a third time by the end of 2028? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will a Persona 3 remake be released before 2025? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will the Panguna Mine resume operations by 2028? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will a Persona 3 remake be officially announced before 2024? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Lorxus's paper be published before 2024 or Lorxus leaves [Fox City], USA? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will the fed balance sheet be bigger on april 11. 2024 than april 6. 2023? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Daniel Perry be pardoned until the end of 2025? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will the Dwarkesh Patel YouTube channel get over 25K subscribers by 2024? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will French Polynesia become independent from France by the end of 2037? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will Taiwan's government recognise a 17th Indigenous group before 2030? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Bobby Fischer be discovered to still be alive before 2030? | 0.03 | Manifold |
At the beginning of 2032, will the richest person in the world have a net worth of at least 1% of US GDP? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will Taylor Swift win a Grammy at the 2024 Grammy Awards? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk get married (yet again) before 2028? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will the world population ever surpass 20 billion before 2075? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will the Melee Moments YouTube channel get over 25K subscribers by 2024? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will the Brazilian men’s national team guarantee their spot for the 2026 FIFA World Cup before the end of 2025? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will San Francisco in 2025 be significantly safer than in 2022? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will a senolytic drug be used clinically to slow, prevent, or reverse aging by the end of 2033? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will a senolytic drug be used clinically for any purpose by the end of 2028? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will an AI get an Ig Nobel Prize before 2050? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will the first fully AI-refereed soccer match take place before 2040? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Itaipu Dam will not exist 2027 | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will the meaning of the phrase "among us" associated with the meme be largely forgotten by the end of 2024? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Global energy consumption in 2030? (in TWh) | 0.93 | Manifold |
Will a human walk on the moon again before 2030? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will a human walk on the moon again before 2029? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will Manifold admins fix @eclair4151 account | 0.96 | Manifold |
Will evidence of Teori Zavascki's assassination appear by 2050? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2028? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Cobol will remain the dominant programming language in 2025 | 0.51 | Manifold |
C-3PO by 2030? | 0.49 | Manifold |
R2-D2 by 2030? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will Barack Obama, George Bush and Bill Clinton have a joint press conference by the end of 2024? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will a supervolcano eruption happen by 2100? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will the Rosalind Franklin rover launch before the end of 2028? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will Robert F. Kennedy become POTUS before 2029? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Ponpoko and Peanuts-kun hit 500k subscribers on YouTube before 2024? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2075? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2050? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2100? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will China launch the Interstellar Express missions before 2030? | 0.59 | Manifold |
An escaped population of cockatoos (any species) will establish itself in the US with >20 individuals by 2035 | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will the Burj Khalifa will be the world's tallest building in 2030? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Destiny and Richard Hanania do a stream or podcast together by the end of 2024? | 0.49 | Manifold |
By 2040, will there be a Wikipedia page about a China-India war that started after 2019? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will the sentience or consciousness of AI become a left/right culture war issue before 2026? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will Globo produce a telenovela about AI before 2026? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 Brazilian elections have more military-affiliated candidates than in 2020? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will 2024 Brazilian municipal elections have more candidates with religious titles than 2020? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump criticise AI before 2025? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will there be more candidates with 'Bolsonaro' in their ballot names in the 2024 Brazilian elections compared to 2020? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk Still be the CEO of Twitter by the end of 2024? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will an AI be able to design a novel machine before 2025? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will the highest marginal tax rate go above 60% by 2040? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will the highest marginal tax rate go above 50% by 2040? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Ron DeSantis be elected President in 2028? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Albert Bourla (CEO of Pfizer) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
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