text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will Nicolas Hieronimus (CEO of L'Oréal) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will a large language model (or AI) successfully convince someone to take amphetamine (off-label, not for ADHD) by 2035? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will Severin Schwan (CEO of Roche) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Ramon Laguarta (CEO of PepsiCo) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Safra Catz (CEO of Oracle Corporation) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will it be shown JoAnn E. Manson committed academic misconduct by 2040? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will the Ark Invest Venture Fund have a NAV above 30 by the end of 2026? | 0.96 | Manifold |
AI commentary for an entire golf game by 2030 end? | 0.77 | Manifold |
AI commentary for an entire golf game by 2025 end? | 0.26 | Manifold |
An NBA game features AI commentary by 2030? | 0.71 | Manifold |
An NBA game features AI commentary by 2025? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will there be a premier league game broadcasted with AI commentators by 2030? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will there be a premier league game broadcasted with AI commentators by 2027? | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will the number of human engineers in front end dev jobs be halved by 2030? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will the number of human engineers in front end dev jobs be halved by 2027? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will the number of human engineers in front end dev jobs be halved by 2025? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will a podcast with an AI system get >= 10 million listens/views by the end of 2025? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will a podcast with an AI system get >= 1 million listens/views by the end of 2024? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Use phone recorded videos to create custom 3D Game environments, by 2027 end? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Use phone recorded videos to create custom 3D Game environments, by 2024 end? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Apple releases iphone/ipad with Segment Anything by 2024 end? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Samsung phone with Segment Anything by 2024 end? | 0.56 | Manifold |
National AI hotline (by 2025 end) | 0.3 | Manifold |
AI hotline (by 2025 end) | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024? | 0.32 | Manifold |
AI hotline (by 2024 end) | 0.97 | Manifold |
Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Assuming she runs, will Lauren Boebert win the Republican primary in CO-03 in 2024? | 0.88 | Manifold |
Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2027? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will everything Hitler predicted happen by 2027? | 0.13 | Manifold |
ISS astronauts die in space before 2026 | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will a middle spotted woodpecker be seen in Britain by the end of 2030? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will a pygmy cormorant be seen in Britain by the end of 2030? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will a black-winged kite be seen in Britain by the end of 2030? | 0.98 | Manifold |
Will any of the Ramsey numbers R(5,5), R(4,6), or R(3,10) have their bounds improved before 2040? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will any of the Ramsey numbers R(5,5), R(4,6), or R(3,10) be known before 2040? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Korea will unify under the south by 2027 | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Rational Animations reach 300k subscribers on YouTube before 2024? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will Rational Animations reach 250k subscribers on YouTube before 2024? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will Rational Animations reach 200k subscribers on YouTube before 2024? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will bitcoin be at least $28000 on Friday 4/21 | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will the [5, 5] Ramsey number by known before 2040? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will any current or former president of the United States be assassinated before 2030? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will the US be at war with Russia at any point until 2030? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will the conflicting federal rulings on mifepristone's availability result in a Supreme Court case by December 31, 2024? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will there be a coup attempt that kills more than 100 people in any rich democracy before April 2123? | 0.89 | Manifold |
Will the US abolish non-pennies by 2030? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will twitter be sued by any private entity for blocking Substack before 2025? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will twitter be subject to regulatory action or penalties for blocking Substack before 2025? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will bitcoin reach $30000 in April 2023 | 1 | Manifold |
Will China fully annex Taiwan before 2053? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will AI Cause a 10x Surge in Lawsuits or Legal Industry GDP by 2033? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will any American university get in trouble for an affirmative action policy by 2033? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Manifold allow you to combine markets by the end of 2024? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will there be a disaster caused by open source developers doing unsafe things with AI by 2028? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Top US income tax bracket in 2050 | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Kanye West receive over 5% of the votes during the US 2024 election? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2025? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will fascism be broadly considered "boring"/commonplace/unremarkable by 2030? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will AI be broadly considered "boring"/commonplace/unremarkable by 2050? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will AI be broadly considered "boring"/commonplace/unremarkable by 2030? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2024? | 0.16 | Manifold |
10% of McDonald's will close by 2025 | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will any major US city have a blackout of at least a day before 2025? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party's vice presidential nominee in 2024? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2024? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the Democratic Party nominee for the 2024 U.S. presidential election? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Texas have a greater population than California before 2030? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will Houston have a greater population than Chicago before 2025? (cities, not metro areas) | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Houston have a greater population than Chicago before 2030? (cities, not metro areas) | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will there be a Monty Python and the Holy Grail pinball machine announced before April 2024? | 0.41 | Manifold |
In 2030, will the Bay Area retain its dominant role and position? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will Ryan Petersen create a market on Manifold before 2024? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will another Forbes 30 under 30 member be arrested for fraud before 2024? | 1 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out all biological life on Earth before 2100? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will Judge Academy still exist in April of 2025? | 0.95 | Manifold |
Will another Forbes 30 under 30 member be arrested for fraud before 2030? | 1 | Manifold |
Will another Forbes 30 under 30 member be arrested for fraud before 2025? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will it be shown Ronald C Kessler committed academic misconduct by 2040? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will any company form a defensible moat around LLM-based AI before 2025? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Texas Attempt to Split into more than one state in a serious attempt before 2040? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will anyone run for political office with the promise of outsourcing all their decision-making to an AI before 2025? | 1 | Manifold |
Will a Supreme court justice came out as LGBT by 2025? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will a mobile keyboard application incorporate text generation based on an LLM by 2024? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will LLM hallucination problems on "summarize/use this context to answer a question" be solved by April 2024? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will a business run by AI make more than 1 million USD in profit before 2025? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will Alabama win the 2024 College Football Playoff National Championship? | 0.15 | Manifold |
No billionaire will exist in 2027 | 0.54 | Manifold |
No billionaire will exist in 2027 | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will bears be reintroduced to the UK by the end of 2040? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will wolves be reintroduced to the UK by the end of 2035? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will lynx be reintroduced to the UK by the end of 2030? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Chesa Boudin holds a public office in the US again before 2043 | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will a recursive LLMaaS and cryptocurrency ecosystem produce grandchildren before 2025? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Silvio Berlusconi (Italian politician) die during 2024? | 0 | Manifold |
Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2030? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025? | 0.24 | Manifold |
A compromising recording of a political opponent will be blamed on AI voice synthesis in the 2024 US presidential election | 0.79 | Manifold |
AI voice synthesis will be used to fabricate dirt on a political opponent in the 2024 US presidential election | 0.64 | Manifold |
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