text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will the 4th passage of KRYPTOS be solved by 2028? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will any non-tenstorrent cloud platform offer access to tenstorrent compute hardware by 2025? | 0.65 | Manifold |
A company will share another company's data to an LLM and pay >$10mn in settlement/damages before 2024 | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2026? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will any of the western balkan countries join teh EU by the end of 2025? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will China inspecting ships in the Taiwan strait escalate to an armed conflict before 2024? | 0.1 | Manifold |
When will GPT-5 be released? (2025) | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will it be possible to short an answer on a free-response market by the end of 2024? | 0.98 | Manifold |
Will GPT-4 (or equiv) cost less than $0.005/1k by 2024? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will China invade Taiwan by 2035? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will there be a big scandal regarding the VP pick of a major party in the 2024 election? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will glueballs be definitively observed experimentally by the end of 2035? | 0.51 | Manifold |
By EOY 2024, will it be publicly known that ARC found any model to be able to survive and spread? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Ali Khamenei remain Supreme Leader of Iran through December 31st, 2025? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will Ali Khamenei remain Supreme Leader of Iran through December 31, 2024? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Lunar Gateway first occupied by a crew before 1/1/2029? | 0.68 | Manifold |
How many states will Joe Biden win in 2024? | 0.49 | Manifold |
How many states will vote at least 25% for Trump in the 2024 election? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will a UK General Election be held during Q4 2024? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will a UK General Election be held during Q3 2024? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will Scotland still be a part of the UK by 2030? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will a UK General Election be held during Q2 2024? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will a UK General Election be held during Q1 2024? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will Puerto Rico become a state by 2030? | 0.3 | Manifold |
By end of 2028, will the median data scientist’s salary be >$100,000? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Chaos Theory: This market resolves to 3.56995*x*(1-x) | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will JK Rowling visit the White House again before 2028? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will there be a change of power in China by 2025 | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2024? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Denis Villeneuve release at least three Dune movies by 2030? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will Oryx report more than 2999 Russian tanks lost in Ukraine by April 1st 2024? | 0.32 | Manifold |
AI solves the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) by 2028 | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will AI be broadly considered "boring"/commonplace/unremarkable by 2025? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will any country threaten withdrawal from the UN by 2028? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will Catalonia hold a referendum on independence from Spain before the end of 2029? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will Quebec hold a referendum on independence from Canada before the end of 2029? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will a therapy that significantly slows or reversed the aging process in domestic animals be developed before 2030? | 0.28 | Manifold |
By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will The US be at at war with another country by the end of 2024? | 0.19 | Manifold |
This market resolves to YES on December 31st 2050 | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will India launch a human into Earth orbit before the end of 2024? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump be sentenced to prison by November 4, 2024? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will there be a botched AI takeover/attempted shutdown evasion killing >100 people before 2050? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will there be a new UN-recognized country before 2030? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will an SSN-AUKUS submarine enter service with the Royal Australian Navy before 2045? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will China have 4 aircraft carriers by the end of 2027? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the Republican party's vice presidential nominee in 2024? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Asa Hutchinson be the Republican party's vice presidential nominee in 2024? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 Dem or Rep presidential nominee die or withdraw before election | 0.14 | Manifold |
AI solves the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) by 2025 | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will Chris Rose win the 2024 senate seat in West Virginia? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will Alex Mooney win the 2024 senate seat in West Virginia? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will Scott Parkinson win the 2024 senate seat in Virginia? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Jonathan Emord win the 2024 senate seat in Virginia? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will John Love III win the 2024 senate seat in Texas? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Tracy Andrus win the 2024 senate seat in Texas? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will Joe Signorello win the 2024 senate seat in New Jersey? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Christina Khalil win the 2024 senate seat in New Jersey? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Daniel Cruz win the 2024 senate seat in New Jersey? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Lucas Kunce win the 2024 senate seat in Missouri? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will December Harmon win the 2024 senate seat in Missouri? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will Nikki Snyder win the 2024 senate seat in Michigan? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2024 senate seat in Michigan? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will Michael Hoover win the 2024 senate seat in Michigan? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Rod Joseph win the 2024 senate seat in Florida? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Matt Boswell win the 2024 senate seat in Florida? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Shantele Bennett win the 2024 senate seat in Florida? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Adam Schiff win the 2024 senate seat in California? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will Katie Porter win the 2024 senate seat in California? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Barack Mandela win the 2024 senate seat in California? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Peter Liu win the 2024 senate seat in California? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Barbara Lee win the 2024 senate seat in California? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will Denice Gary-Pandol win the 2024 senate seat in California? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Vivek Ramaswamy join the US Cabinet by 2026? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will John Barrasso win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Wyoming? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will Tammy Baldwin win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Wisconsin? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will Joe Manchin win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in West Virginia? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Tim Kaine win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Virginia? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will Bernie Sanders win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Vermont? | 0.89 | Manifold |
Will Mitt Romney win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Utah? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will Ted Cruz win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Texas? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will Sheldon Whitehouse win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Rhode Island? | 0.82 | Manifold |
Will Bob Casey Jr. win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Pennsylvania? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will Sherrod Brown win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Ohio? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will Kevin Cramer win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in North Dakota? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will Kirsten Gillibrand win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in New York? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will Bob Menendez win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in New Jersey? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will Jacky Rosen win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Nevada? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will Deb Fischer win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Nebraska? | 0.82 | Manifold |
Will Jon Tester win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Montana? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will Josh Hawley win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Missouri? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will Roger Wicker win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Mississippi? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will Amy Klobuchar win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Minnesota? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will Elizabeth Warren win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Massachusetts? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will Angus King win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Maine? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will Mazie Hirono win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Hawaii? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will Rick Scott win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Florida? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will Tom Carper win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Delaware? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will Chris Murphy win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Connecticut? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will Kyrsten Sinema win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Arizona? | 0.19 | Manifold |
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