text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will CEA publicly apologize for their response to the Nick Bostrom scandal by the end of 2025? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will the Republican VP nominee 2024 be a woman? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will bitcoin be over $100k on April 5, 2025? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will Lake Powell dip below elevation 3,490 ft, which is “minimum power pool” prior to May 1 2025? | 0.28 | Manifold |
By 2042, will at least 3 primary presidential candidates go to state prison of a opposition state? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will the Republican presidential candidate in 2024 win any states that voted for Biden in 2020? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will the Democratic presidential candidate in 2024 win any states that voted for Trump in 2020? | 0.6 | Manifold |
In 2050, will the general consensus among experts be that the concern over AI risk in the 2020s was justified? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will the Arizona Cardinals make the 2024 NFL Playoffs? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will the Los Angeles Rams make the 2024 NFL Playoffs? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will the Seattle Seahawks make the 2024 NFL Playoffs? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will the San Francisco 49ers make the 2024 NFL Playoffs? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will the Atlanta Falcons make the 2024 NFL Playoffs? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will the New Orleans Saints make the 2024 NFL Playoffs? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will the Carolina Panthers make the 2024 NFL Playoffs? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers make the 2024 NFL Playoffs? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will the Chicago Bears make the 2024 NFL Playoffs? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will the Green Bay Packers make the 2024 NFL Playoffs? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will the Detroit Lions make the 2024 NFL Playoffs? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will the Minnesota Vikings make the 2024 NFL Playoffs? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will the Washington Commanders make the 2024 NFL Playoffs? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will the New York Giants make the 2024 NFL Playoffs? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will the Las Vegas Raiders make the 2024 NFL Playoffs? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will the Dallas Cowboys make the 2024 NFL Playoffs? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will the Philadelphia Eagles make the 2024 NFL Playoffs? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will the Denver Broncos make the 2024 NFL Playoffs? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will the Los Angeles Chargers make the 2024 NFL Playoffs? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will the Kansas City Chiefs make the 2024 NFL Playoffs? | 0.82 | Manifold |
Will the Houston Texans make the 2024 NFL Playoffs? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will the Indianapolis Colts make the 2024 NFL Playoffs? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will the Tennessee Titans make the 2024 NFL Playoffs? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars make the 2024 NFL Playoffs? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will the Cleveland Browns make the 2024 NFL Playoffs? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers make the 2024 NFL Playoffs? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will the Baltimore Ravens make the 2024 NFL Playoffs? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will the Cincinnati Bengals make the 2024 NFL Playoffs? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will the New York Jets make the 2024 NFL Playoffs? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will the New England Patriots make the 2024 NFL Playoffs? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will the Miami Dolphins make the 2024 NFL Playoffs? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will the Buffalo Bills make the 2024 NFL Playoffs? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 presidential election do it from jail? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Joe Biden publish an autobiography by the end of 2030? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will Destiny and xQc talk on stream before 2024? | 1 | Manifold |
Will AI have a ten trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will there be a significant self-amplifying prompt injection spam incident before 2024? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will Destiny buy a new car before 2024? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Donald Trump will halt his 2024 presidential candidacy | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will an official episode the Destiny and Dan podcast be released before 2024? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will pure electric vehicles be viable in cold weather by December 31st, 2024? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will any US state change their flag in a manner consistent with the suggestions in CGP Grey's video before 2030? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI's Jukebox 2 be released? (2024) | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will Hakui Koyori hit 1 million subscribers on YouTube before 2024? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will CGP Grey reach 7 million YouTube subscribers by the end of 2024? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will Jack donate at least $1m total mana before 2025? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk be eligible to be president before 2035? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Walmart buy Tiktok by the end of 2024? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will my M$5000+ mana grant program be launched within a week, and succeed? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will any state update its flag in 2024? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will Florida be underwater by 2030? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will a parrot or cockatoo be cryopreserved and resurrected by 2200? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will the Church of England take an affirming stance on gay marriage by 2030? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will CGP Grey release another flag video before 2024? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will there be a parrot shown to be capable of mirror self-recognition by 2100? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will a dog be uplifted into having human-level intelligence by 9999? | 0.82 | Manifold |
Will a parrot/cockatoo be uplifted into having human-level intelligence by 9999? #Transavianism | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will any US state change its name by the end of 2030? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will a TIGIT targeting agent receive FDA approval in any solid tumor indication before 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will the US and China be at war with each other before the end of 2025? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will the Twitter Bird Return by 2024? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will all 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will at least 2 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will Yann LeCun make any serious attempt before 2024 to explain why AI risk is not a significant concern? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040? | 0.46 | Manifold |
If there is some kind of AI pause before 2024, it will mostly hamper OpenAI | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will an AI be able to repeatedly write rap songs that I think are good without human input in the lyrics before 2025? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will more than 40% of respondents identify as having “No religion” in the 2041 UK Census? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will more YouTubers join manifold by the end of 2024? | 0.92 | Manifold |
Will there still be exactly 50 US states by 2030? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will Finland retain its position as the happiest country in the World Happiness Report 2024? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will there be a robot caregiver that can raise a newborn child w/o assistance by end of 2040? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky and Aella have a child by the end of 2029? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will any market of mine go a year in between bets (by the end of 2024)? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will CGP Grey's channel cross 1 billion views in 2024? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will computers know our beliefs better than ourselves in 2030? | 0.38 | Manifold |
At any point before 2030, will 1 bitcoin be worth over $1M? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Edward Snowden be pardoned by 2025? | 0.07 | Manifold |
AI 2024 Person of the Year | 0.32 | Manifold |
Singularity by 2030? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high in 2024? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will CGP Grey abandon manifold markets before the end of 2024? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will the Destiny x Mrgirl bridge be repaired before 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will the first living baby born from a womb transplant be born in 2024? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will consequential atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2040? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will consequential atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2030? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will complex atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2040? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will complex atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2030? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Nvidia close over $400 at the end of 2025? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2040? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2030? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.