text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
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|---|---|---|
Will Kurzgesagt mention Manifold, or link to Manifold in a video's description before 2025? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will there be a OpenAI LLM known as GPT-4.5? by 2033 | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will Tetraspace have a VTuber thingy for Project for Awesome 2024? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will Tetraspace record a video for Project for Awesome 2024? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will Hock Tan (CEO of Broadcom) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will James Quincey (CEO of Coca-Cola) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will the software engineer's salaries/ per capita GDP ratio be lower in 2026 than in 2022, per Levels.fyi? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Robert M. Davis (CEO of Merck) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Richard A. Gonzalez (CEO of AbbVie) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Jack Dorsey (Co-founder of Twitter) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Software will (upon mouseover) auto-convert Imperial to metric units (eg ng/dl to µmol/L) for any diagram by 2028 | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will Germany achieve 65GW onshore wind energy in 2024? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will there be any lockdowns in the US before 2035? (they can be bio or AI or terrorism related) | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will either the 2024 or 2028 US presidential election result in an Electoral College tie? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will the Democrats win any statewide election in Texas by the end of 2030? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will the Democrats win any statewide election in Florida by the end of 2030? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will Republicans control the US Senate any time after the 2024 elections and before the 2030 elections? | 0.89 | Manifold |
Will Lorxus, the author of this market, survive Tontine until 2024? | 0.95 | Manifold |
Will Jeb (!) Bush get at least one electoral vote in the 2024 United States Presidential Election? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will there be another pandemic before 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Julian Assange return to Australia before 2026? | 0.17 | Manifold |
What will be the budget for pension expenditure for Spain in 2024 as a percentage of the total budget? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will bitcoin be at least 28000 on Friday 4/14 | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will bitcoin be at least $28000 at 11:59pm Friday 4/7 | 0.97 | Manifold |
Will Twitter still exist as "Twitter"? (2024) | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will roko's basilisk end up happening by 2050? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Russia detonate a nuclear bomb in Ukraine by 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will George Santos be reelected in 2024? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Google have a better LLM than OpenAI by 2025? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will "On the fly modification and generation of in game environment during play using an AI system" be possible in 2030? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will "On the fly modification and generation of in game environment during play using an AI system" be possible in 2025? | 0.77 | Manifold |
2025: Most common way to write documents in Latex is to give a natural language description to a tool based on LLMs? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will an LLM be able to match the ground truth >85% of the time when performing PII detection by 2024 end? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will manifold markets have a forum by 2024 end? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will Google, Amazon, Apple, or Samsung have their voice assistant integrated with an LLM, by 2024 end? | 0.89 | Manifold |
Will Apple release a MacBook with LLM integration built in, by 2025 end? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Google releases a smartphone with LLM integrated into the OS, by 2025? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will a major smartphone manufacturer ship out a phone with generative art model integrated with camera software by 2025? | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will California pass a law providing grants to implement high-welfare farming practices before Dec 31, 2024? | 0.27 | Manifold |
By end of 2030, English speakers will be able to fluently communicate with Spanish speakers using a translation device | 0.77 | Manifold |
There will be an open source LLM approximately as good or better than GPT4 before 2025 | 0.7 | Manifold |
China will make a LLM approximately as good or better than GPT4 before 2025 | 0.49 | Manifold |
El Salvador will be doing really well at the start of 2026 | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will a space mission focused on the investigation and exploration of Jupiter's moon Io be approved before 2030? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will Catalonia (Catalunya) gain internationally recognized independence before 2030? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will the SMH semiconductor ETF close over $365 on June 20, 2025? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Joe Biden say (or attempt to say) ‘Eliezer Yudkowsky’ before the end of 2024? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2030? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2026? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will ChatGPT or equivalent AI chatbot be able to recall the information across all our chat history by 2024? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will ChatGPT or an equivalent AI chatbot be able to produce text mimicking my personal style before 2024? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will an AI achieve a perfect score on the Miklós Schweitzer Competition before 2035? | 0.89 | Manifold |
Will an AI achieve a perfect score on the Miklós Schweitzer Competition before 2028? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will Joe Biden be indicted before 2026? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Joe Biden literally run in 2024? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will George Washington run for President in 2024? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will someone be arrested for a felony offense committed in the name of AI safety in the US before 2024? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will someone be arrested for a felony offense committed in the name of AI safety in the US before 2030? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will someone be arrested for a felony offense committed in the name of AI safety in the US before 2026? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will prediction markets be mentioned on the Cortex Podcast by 2024? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will a popular video game randomizer use machine learning to generate its content before 2025? | 0.91 | Manifold |
Will ChatGPT be easily accessible in Italy on 2024-01-01? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will there be a full-scale war between North Korea and South Korea by 2050? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will Lex Fridman have Eliezer Yudkowsky back on his podcast for a part 2 before the start of 2025? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump be pardoned before 2027? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump be convicted of a crime before 2027? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will the UK rejoin the European Union by 2040? | 0.28 | Manifold |
By 2028, will anyone do a terrorist attack against AI capabilities researchers that is plausibly attributable to Yud? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will a human walk on the moon by the end of 2024 | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will the Lunar Society podcast have more subscribers than the Lex Fridman podcast on youtube by July 2024? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will a court find Afroman liable to the police who raided his house by 2025? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Destiny talk to Eliezer Yudkowsky on stream before the end of 2024? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky go on the Making Sense podcast with Sam Harris again by the end of 2024? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky go on the Mindscape podcast by the end of 2024? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky give an official TED talk before 2024? | 1 | Manifold |
Will NASA approve the Uranus Orbiter before 2030? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will there be a civil war in Venezuela before 2050? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky have at least 200,000 followers on Twitter by the end of 2024? | 0.74 | Manifold |
In 2033, will Richard Hanania believe that the predictions they made about deepfakes came true? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will any 2024 US presidential debate mention a strict ban on AI process such as that advocated for by Eliezer Yudkowsky? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will there be an airstrike on a datacenter before 2035? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will any CGP Grey video surpass "The Simple Solution to Traffic" as their most popular video by the end of 2024? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2100? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will the USD stop being the world's reserve currency by 2030? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will Australia enter a recession before 2024? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Australia enter a recession before 2025? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will any AI researchers be killed by someone explicitly trying to slow AI capabilities by end of 2028? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will US real GDP pc double by 2040? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will US real GDP pc double by 2070? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will US real GDP pc double by 2050? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will "Yuddite" become the established term for people who want to slow down/stop AI capabilities before 2024? | 0.09 | Manifold |
MSFT = #1 (2025) | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will Nintendo re-release Super Smash Bros. Melee in any form before 2025? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will Trump tweet by Nov 2024? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will Trump be indicted by Nov 2024? | 0.98 | Manifold |
Will Hyakumantenbara Salome hit 2 million subscribers on YouTube before 2024? | 0.78 | Manifold |
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