text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will Pipkin Pippa hit 500k subscribers on YouTube before 2024? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will Rational Animations reach 2 million subscribers on YouTube before 2025? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will a financial instrument similar to Robin Hanson's Robots-Took-Most-Jobs Insurance be available before 2025? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will a financial instrument similar to Robin Hanson's Robots-Took-Most-Jobs Insurance be available before 2024? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will the Sweden Democrats increase their share in parliament in the Swedish 2026 general election? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will the US or China enact a moratorium of any kind on the training of large language models by the end 2024? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will the US impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Ted Decker (CEO of Home Depot) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Mike Wirth (CEO of Chevron) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will a sequel to Hogwarts Legacy be announced before 2025? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will humans be able to subjectively experience 4 spacial dimensions before 2050? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will the trans community agree on a single, grammatically-singular, gender-neutral pronoun to use before 2035? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will the United States confiscate privately owned gold collections before 2035? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will CGP Grey upload any videos in 2025? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will CGP Grey upload any videos in 2024? | 0.92 | Manifold |
Will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware before 2025? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware before 2024? | 0.13 | Manifold |
🐕 Will A.I. Get Significantly Better at Evaluating Scientific Claims by the end of 2024? | 0.45 | Manifold |
🐕 Will A.I. Get, "Scarily Better at Helping To Resolve Shipping Supply Chain Issues," by the End of 2024? (HuggingFace) | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will the All-In Podcast YouTube channel get more than 1 million subscribers by 2025? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will Lex Fridman's YouTube channel reach 3 million subscribers before 2024? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Rational Animations reach 1 million subscribers on YouTube before 2025? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will Skill Up reach 1 million subscribers on YouTube before 2024? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will Adam Neely reach 2 million subscribers on YouTube before 2025? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will Joseph Anderson reach 1 million subscribers on YouTube before 2025? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will Folding Ideas reach 1 million subscribers on YouTube before 2025? | 0.45 | Manifold |
US government collapses by 2025 | 0.07 | Manifold |
By 2026, will a "nonsocial media app" exclusively serving AI-generated shortform content reach one million DAU? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will GitHub Continuous Integration accept zk-SNARKs by 2028? | 0.29 | Manifold |
By 2063, will the Republic of China annex any territory in the mainland? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will JetBlue announce that it has acquired Spirit Airlines before 2026? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will David A. Ricks (CEO of Eli Lilly) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Michael Miebach (CEO of Mastercard) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Puzzle AGI by 2040 | 0.79 | Manifold |
Puzzle AGI by 2032 | 0.69 | Manifold |
Puzzle AGI by 2028 | 0.33 | Manifold |
Puzzle AGI by 2025 | 0.16 | Manifold |
Video-Game AGI by 2035 | 0.84 | Manifold |
Video-Game AGI by 2032 | 0.78 | Manifold |
Video-Game AGI by 2028 | 0.38 | Manifold |
Video-Game AGI by 2025 | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will Apple release an on-device LLM-powered version of Siri by the end of 2024? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will Google acquire Replit by the end of 2025? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will Lenin be buried before 2050? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will any cryptocurrency surpass the market caps of both Bitcoin and Ethereum before 2035? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will a quantum computer successfully use Shor’s algorithm to break a public-key cryptosystem, e.g. RSA, by 2030? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will any top AI lab commit to a moratorium on giant AI experiments before 2024? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will Summoning Salt reach 2 million subscribers on YouTube before 2025? | 0.63 | Manifold |
By the end of 2055, will it be possible for a person who was born male to get pregnant and have children normally? | 0.4 | Manifold |
By the end of 2045, will it be possible for a person who was born male to get pregnant and have children normally? | 0.21 | Manifold |
A pure combinational logic byte level RNN will exist by end of 2024 | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will Destiny and Aella both publicly claim to have had sex with each other before 2024? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine be rated a free country by Freedom House in 2028? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will the United States be rated a free country by Freedom House in 2028? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will Turkey be rated a free country by Freedom House in 2028? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will Israel be rated a free country by Freedom House in 2028? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will India be rated a free country by Freedom House in 2028? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will "Binging" replace "Googling" as a term for online search by 2030? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will there be more than one million new HIV infections globally in 2025? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will CGP Grey make a video about prediction markets before the end of 2024? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will Sweden keep being a democracy until 2030? | 0.94 | Manifold |
Will a Republican candidate publicly declare climate change real by 2024? | 0.95 | Manifold |
Will there be a large car-free population center by 2040? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Neural Nets will be better at typical manual labour tasks than humans by the end of 2025 | 0.14 | Manifold |
Neural Nets will generated at least 1 scientific breakthroughs or novel theorem by the end of 2025 | 0.5 | Manifold |
Neural Nets will generate more scientific breakthroughs than humans by the end of 2025, including novel theorems | 0.08 | Manifold |
Neural Nets will be able to robustly pursue a plan over multiple days better than the best human by the end of 2025 | 0.26 | Manifold |
Neural Nets will be able to write bestselling novels by the end of 2025 | 0.11 | Manifold |
Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 | 0.17 | Manifold |
Neural Nets will write award-winning short stories and publishable 50k-word books by the end of 2025 | 0.4 | Manifold |
Neural Nets will beat any human on computer tasks a typical white-collar worker can do in 10 minutes by the end of 2025. | 0.51 | Manifold |
Neural Nets will be able to design, code and distribute whole apps by the end of 2025. | 0.34 | Manifold |
Neural Nets will have human-level situational awareness by the end of 2025. | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will a fully autonomous, Level 5 self driving car be available for purchase in the US by the year 2040? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will the USA go to war with another country before April 1st, 2024. | 0.1 | Manifold |
WW3: by 2030 | 0.21 | Manifold |
WW3: by 2050 | 0.36 | Manifold |
WW3: by 2040 | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Kazakhstan experience mass mobilization, for any reasons, before end of 2025? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will the Arbitrum Governance token $ARB be in the top 10 crypto currencies by market cap on coin gecko before 2024 | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will Jon R. Moeller (CEO of Procter & Gamble) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen (CEO of Novo Nordisk) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will an AI winter happen by 2030? | 0.2 | Manifold |
AGI risk will force something akin to "divine intervention" that temporarily restricts *everyone's* freedom by 2030 | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will the Three-Tier system of alcohol regulation be meaningfully reformed or dismantled before 2030? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Recession in 2024? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will any of Nick Cannon and Elon Musk's children date each other before 2045? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Robin Hanson stop blogging by 2025? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will IRyS hit 1 million subscribers on YouTube before 2024? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI go public before 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will AI Therapist be a mainstream job title by December 31, 2025? | 0.23 | Manifold |
If a Macron-backed candidate fails to be elected president in 2027, will a far-right candidate win? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will there be media coverage of a high-profile privacy violation caused by GPT-4 plug-in interactions before 2024? | 0.89 | Manifold |
By the end of 2045, will it be possible for someone born biologically male to get pregnant and have children normally? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will "Chat control" legislation be implemented in the EU by 2030? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will Yuzuki Choco hit 1 million subscribers on YouTube before 2024? | 0.91 | Manifold |
Will Inugami Korone hit 2 million subscribers on YouTube before 2024? | 1 | Manifold |
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