text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
What percentage of votes will the ANC have in the 2024 South African general election? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will Himemori Luna hit 1 million subscribers on YouTube before 2024? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Kazama Iroha hit 1 million subscribers on YouTube before 2025? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will Shirakami Fubuki hit 3 million subscribers on YouTube before 2026? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will we be able to edit our own genomes by 2050? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will Sakura Miko hit 2 million subscribers on YouTube before 2024? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will Laplus Darkness hit 1 million subscribers on YouTube before 2024? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Nanashi Mumei hit 1 million subscribers on YouTube before 2024? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will the Hololive corporate YouTube channel reach 3 million subscribers before 2025? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will augmented humans exist by 2040 for which it is genuinely unclear if they are still humans or more of an AI? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will Taiwan/ROC gain any 'diplomatic allies' before 2027? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Limits on AI model size by 2026? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will SAG-AFTRA secure a contract enforcing terms for AIs trained on voice actor's voices before 2024? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will SAG-AFTRA establish terms for AIs trained on voice actor's voices before 2024? | 0.46 | Manifold |
[DEBATE] Can LLMs lead to AGI in <12 years? {4000M bounty, potentially more} | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will the 21st Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party, to be selected in 2027, include at least one woman? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will people who graduate around 2028 regret about starting a degree around 2023? Consider AI development. | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will Israel have an election before 2025? | 0.61 | Manifold |
By the end of 2050, will it be possible to quickly increase an adult human’s IQ by at least two standard deviations? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will David Petraeus serve in the Biden administration by the end of 2024? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will another Star Wars movie be released before 2027? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will any non-human animal be able to vote, in any U.S. jurisdiction, by 2035? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will AI be able to vote, in any U.S. jurisdiction, by 2035? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will the EU enact a 2035 ban on internal combustion engine cars with an exception for synthetic fuels, in 2023? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will the EU enact a 2035 ban on internal combustion engine cars in 2023? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will the TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024? | 0.24 | Manifold |
By 2024, GPTs are proven to be able to infer scientific principles from linguistic data. | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will the EU end Daylight Saving Time before 2028? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Sergey Brin or Larry Page returns to a daily leadership role at Google/Alphabet before end of 2025 | 0.18 | Manifold |
Sergey Brin or Larry Page returns to a daily leadership role at Google/Alphabet before end of 2024 | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election win more than 325 electoral college votes? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election win more than 350 electoral college votes? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election win more than 300 electoral college votes? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will Hoshimachi Suisei hit 3 million subscribers on YouTube before 2025? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will Kobo Kanaeru hit 3 million subscribers on YouTube before 2025? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will a book claimed to be written by an AI make the NYT best seller list before the end of 2025? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will Usada Pekora hit 3 million subscribers on YouTube before 2025? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will Manifold reach 5000 daily active users (7d average) by September 1st? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Manifold reach 5000 daily active users (7d average) by August 1st? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Manifold reach 3000 daily active users (7d average) by July 1st? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Manifold reach 5000 daily active users (7d average) by July 1st? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Ted Cruz endorse Trump for President by 2024? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI + an AI alignment organization announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment? (2024) | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will an AI alignment research paper be featured on the cover of a prestigious scientific journal? (2024) | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI announce a dedicated grant program for external AI alignment research projects? (2024) | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI give early access to GPT-5 to any of these alignment organizations? (2024) | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will a book claimed to be written by an AI make the NYT best seller list before the end of 2024? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI release a technical report on a model designed for AI alignment research? (2024) | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI release weights to a model designed to be easily interpretable (2024)? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will significant strides be made in cracking dolphin language by 2026? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will China announce a deal to build a naval base in the Western hemisphere by 2025? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will there be more than 400.000 new homes be built in Germany in 2024? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will there be coal power plants for energy generation in Germany at the end of 2030? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will Gautam Adani make it to the top 10 of the Forbes' annual 'World's Billionaires List' before 2026? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Destiny win any awards at The Streamer Awards 2024? | 0.13 | Manifold |
AI Capybara by 2028 | 0.42 | Manifold |
AI Surgery by 2025? | 0.1 | Manifold |
By 2030, will there be credible claims that Mullvad VPN logs user activity? | 0.24 | Manifold |
AI Movies by 2024 | 0.3 | Manifold |
AI Movies by 2027 | 0.73 | Manifold |
AI Movies by 2025 | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will a nuclear fusion reaction be maintained continuously for >24hrs before the end of 2030? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will a video game be created where its agents are sentient enough to try to hack its own simulation by 2045? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will Rahul Gandhi (leader of India's main opposition party) be in prison in May 2024 (the next Indian general election)? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will the Taliban control Afghanistan in 2035? | 0.38 | Manifold |
A major AI conference will require bomb scanners or other security to prevent a terrorist attack by 2026 | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will Austin Shao be hired for Atomic Semi (https://atomicsemi.com/ ) before 2027? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will at least half of new cars sold in 2038 in the US be fully autonomous? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will Earth be at least 2.2˚C warmer in 2100 than in 1880? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will philosophy be solved before 2123? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will wild-animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue by the beginning of 2100? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? (2050 Poll) | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will another police killing in the United States go seriously viral before 2030? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will humanity survive until 2100? | 0.66 | Manifold |
By the end of 2050, it will not be possible to quickly increase an adult human’s IQ by at least two standard deviations | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will virtual and augmented reality be as popular in 2060 as smartphones were in 2021? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will women lower their standards for men on average by 2033? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will AI take over the world by 2100? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will there be a confirmed instance of acausal trade before 2040? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will the life insurance market be disintermediated by end of 2030? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will 50% of the human population die in a 12 month time period before 2050? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will the LP secondaries market be disintermediated by end of 2030? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will US residential real estate be disintermediated by end of 2030? | 0.3 | Manifold |
By 2030, will AI tech be powerful enough to automate a YouTube channel? | 0.9 | Manifold |
Will Twitter suffer an unrecoverable system failure by the end of 2025? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Jamie Dimon (CEO of JPMorgan) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky go on The Joe Rogan Experience podcast by the end of 2024? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will an an LLM be able to pass something equivalent to Yann LeCun's 7-gear test by the end of 2024? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will there be any agreement to slow down AI development, between OpenAI/Microsoft, Google and Anthropic before 2024? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will the US, UK or EU write any law aimed at limiting a specific AI capability before 2024? | 0.53 | Manifold |
The US, UK or EU put limits on training of AI models (eg $ spent) before 2024? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will the Tontine surviving player count be 100 or less as of 2025-1-1? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Deutsche Bank AG be bailed out by the German government before 2026? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2024? | 0.75 | Manifold |
By 2033, Will an AI be elected to public office in a democracy? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Citigroup will not exist in 2027 | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will powerful (magnitude 8.0 or more) earthquake hit city of Almaty (this is a city in Kazakhstan) before end of 2025? | 0.06 | Manifold |
A fusion power plant will generate a net 100 megawatt of electricity by the beginning of 2063 | 0.6 | Manifold |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.