text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Quantum computation will not radically change computation by 2100 except in encryption. | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will anyone commit suicide due to fears of anti-aligned AI before 2030? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Strong consensus among game theorists at the beginning of 2040 will be that one-boxing in Newcomb’s paradox is optimal. | 0.39 | Manifold |
In 2068, will animal farming will be less than 10% of its size as of 2023? | 0.58 | Manifold |
General motors will not exist in 2027 | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will the Iran-Saudi deal last until 2026? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will an AI simulate human consciousness by 2100? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will AI easily replace/blank out 90% of IRL *names* mentioned in all audio recordings contained in a folder by 2024? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Most popular language model from OpenAI competitor by 2026? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Best available language model from an OpenAI competitor by 2026 | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will Senator Kyrsten Sinema register as a Republican by 2024? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will Egypt go to war with Ethiopia by 2030? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will DOE require DEI statements in research grant proposals in 2030? | 0.43 | Manifold |
🐕 Will A.I. Be Able to, "Feel and React to Pain," Significantly Better By the End of 2024? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will AI first get IMO gold in 2026 or 2027? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will data centres consume more than 10% of global electricity usage for the year 2030? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will Ian Wooldridge (Woolie) defect back to Plaid Cymru by 2025? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will the United States become a dictatorship by 2100? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will a LLM autonomous operate payments for a business with more than 600 USD in cash flow before 2024? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Langford Basilisk before 2032 | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will an LLM autonomously operate a business that generates more than 600 USD in profit before 2024? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will CGPGrey upload their brain into a computer before 2040? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will CGP Grey be confirmed to have uploaded their brain into a computer before 2040? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Alameda research will not exist in 2027 | 0.82 | Manifold |
By 2029 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs? | 0.7 | Manifold |
By 2025 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs? | 0.38 | Manifold |
By 2027, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text > human text for training LLMs? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will we be able to read AIs minds in 2030? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2050? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040? | 0.34 | Manifold |
By 2050, will humans pump significant quantities of ocean water towards the poles to reduce leap seconds? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Prabowo Subianto win the 2024 Indonesian Presidential Election? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will credit Suisse have a CET1 <13% by the end of 2024? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will SCOTUS judges have term limits by 2028-03-23? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will the Bridge Burn: Destiny & Sneako by July 1st 2024 | 0.98 | Manifold |
Donald Trump gets pardoned or granted clemency by EOY 2032 | 0.19 | Manifold |
A new international treaty on autonomous weapon systems by 2025-03-23? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will Doug McMillon (CEO of Walmart) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Darren Woods (CEO of ExxonMobil) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will any US state ban consumption of animal meat (not lab-grown meat) by 2050? | 0.36 | Manifold |
By 2050, will humans pump significant quantities of ocean water onto Antarctica to reduce sea levels? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will polling show that humans perceive AI as a threat before 2030? | 0.9 | Manifold |
Will Sam Altman convert to Christian/Mormon Transhumanism by 2035? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will the sale of new gas cars be illegal in Florida in 2045? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will the sale of new gas cars be illegal in Florida in 2040? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will the sale of new gas cars be illegal in Texas in 2035? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will the sale of new gas cars be illegal in West Virginia in 2035? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will the sale of new gas cars be illegal in Montana in 2035? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will 25% of US construction workers have their jobs negatively impacted by AI by 2030? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030? | 0.39 | Manifold |
It will be accepted by 2027 that capitalism is zero sum and pointless | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will the U.S. have a central bank digital currency by 2030? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Communism won't exist in 2027 | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will the government bail out multifamily apartment developers or REITs by 2025 | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will an AI implement a Python PEP by 2024? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will an exomoon be discovered by the end of 2025? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will Uniswap be more used than SushiSwap in the last week of 2026? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will Germany have 15Mio electric vehicles by 2030? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will Dan and Steven make their own live podcast show before 2024? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will an LLM have been used as part of the composition a work which wins the Nobel Prize in Literature by 2040? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will Kyiv fall before 2024? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will Olivier Rioux play in a regular season NBA game by 2031? | 0.48 | Manifold |
A Chinese AI org will release something roughly as good as the original ChatGPT before 2025 | 0.78 | Manifold |
A Chinese AI model will score over 85% on the MMLU before 2024 | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will manifold create a new type of market that combines quadratic funding with free answers betting before 2024? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will any other US intelligence agency change their assessment of Covid origins towards a lab origin by the end of 2024? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2035? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2030? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2025? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will an AI win a Gold Medal on the International Math Olympiad by 2032? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Distributed LLM by 2024 | 0.31 | Manifold |
Distributed LLM by 2025 | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will the median maternal age at first birth decrease again after it's increase during COVID, by the end of 2026? | 0.58 | Manifold |
OpenAI will offer security vulnerability bounties by 2024-03-22? | 1 | Manifold |
Will AI win a Pulitzer by 2030? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will AI win a Pulitzer by 2025? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will the Prime Minister of New Zealand lose the game by the end of 2024? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will the S&P 500 "Information Technology" sector exceed 30% by 2025? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will the sale of new gas cars be illegal in Illinois in 2035? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will the sale of new gas cars be illegal in Florida in 2035? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will the sale of new gas cars be illegal in Virginia in 2035? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will AWS remain the market share leader in cloud infrastructure services by Q4 2025? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will artifical eyes for blind people be available before 2030? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will any covid vaccine kill over 1 million people by 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will the American Communist Party win any states in 2024? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Spike Cohen run for president in 2024? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will Trump run for president in 2024 if he doesn't get Republican nomination | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will someone commit terrorism against an AI lab by the end of 2025 for AI-safety related reasons? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will China have a domestic EUV maker by 2030? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will less than 70% of agricultural land be used for farm animals by 2030? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will any country physically disconnect from the internet for over a week before 2030? | 0.53 | Manifold |
How many listed companies will have been sued for copyright over AI, and have the trial resolved, before 2025? | 0.19 | Manifold |
How many listed companies will have been sued for copyright over AI, and have a trial date announced, before 2025? | 0.21 | Manifold |
How many companies on this list will have been sued on copyright grounds over their use of AI before 2025? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will Bitcoin's price be above $30000 on April 30th? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Bitcoin's price be above $27500 on April 30th? | 1 | Manifold |
Will JB Pritzker seek the Democratic nomination in 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Josh Hawley seek the GOP nomination in 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Tom Cotton seek the GOP nomination in 2024? | 0.12 | Manifold |
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