text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
OpenAI or Microsoft offers or provides AI infra for an LLM in China before 3/2027 | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will Melania file for divorce by the end of 2024? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will the Bridge Burn: Destiny & Adam22 by July 1st 2024 | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will the Bridge Burn: Destiny & xQc by July 1st 2024 | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will the Bridge Burn: Destiny & Pisco by July 1st 2024 | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will the Bridge Burn: Destiny & Aella by July 1st 2024 | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will the Bridge Burn: Destiny & Farha by July 1st 2024 | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will the Bridge Burn: Destiny & Stardust by July 1st 2024 | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will the Bridge Burn: Destiny & JonZherka by July 1st 2024 | 1 | Manifold |
Will the Bridge Burn: Destiny & Chaeiry by July 1st 2024 | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will the Bridge Burn: Destiny & Aba by July 1st 2024 | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will the Bridge Burn: Destiny & NotSoErudite by July 1st, 2024 | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will the unemployment rate among CS degree-holders rise to over 30% by 2030? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Jimmy Carter be the 2024 Democratic nominee for president? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Replit IPO by 2025 | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 be someone who has ever been a governor of one of the 50 states? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 be someone who has ever been a senator in the United States Senate? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Hugging Face be acquired before 2025? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will artificial sentience be created by end of 2050? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will artificial sentience be created by end of 2030? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Python remain the most popular programming language on GitHub by Q1 2024? | 0.85 | Manifold |
By 2050, will any territory that was administered by Russia in 2013 be administered by China instead? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will arxiv still exist in 2040? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will arxiv still exist in 2030? | 0.88 | Manifold |
Will Ma Huateng (CEO of Tencent) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will any chemical rocket engine reach 600 seconds of specific impulse by 2030? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will worldwide life expectancy be at least 80 years at the beginning of 2035? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will worldwide life expectancy reach 75 years before 2030? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will the hurricane wind speed record be broken before 2028? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will any new animal species of at least 1kg be discovered before 2028? | 0.88 | Manifold |
Will Chris Sununu be the 2024 Republican nominee for president? | 0.02 | Manifold |
By 2025, will Google be in a winning position in the "AI war" against Microsoft? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will Biden issue a pardon for Donald Trump before the 2024 presidential election | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Magnus Carlsen have two children by May 2030? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will Magnus Carlsen have a child by May 2030? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Wikipedia unblocked in China by 2031 given continued CCP rule | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will there be a $100M+ startup valuation from a laid-off Xoogler by EOY 2024? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will the claim that people that grew up with GPT-like systems are smarter be plausible by 2050? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033 | 0.75 | Manifold |
A new religion will gain traction in the wake of AI by December 2025 | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists move the Doomsday Clock closer to midnight in 2024 | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will Slough Borough Council still be a unitary authority in 2025? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will Kerbal Space Program 2 fulfill its entire roadmap by the end of 2025? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will technology related to ChatGPT significantly alter the role of Student Essays in US College Admissions by 2026? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will the US government require AI labs to run safety/alignment evals by 2025? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will interest in DeepMind overtake OpenAI at any point before 2025? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will the total number of Giving What We Can pledges made in 2024 be higher than in 2022? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will the TPP win the 2024 Taiwan/ROC Presidential Election? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will the KMT win the 2024 Taiwan/ROC Presidential Election? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will the DPP win the 2024 Taiwan/ROC Presidential Election? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will 6418 make it into eliminations at SVR? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Bernard Arnault (CEO of Louis Vuitton) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will (reputable media report that) AI-related power consumption rivals that of Bitcoin by 2026? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will the foreign population of Japan exceed 5 million people by the 2025 census? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will "Store Now Decrypt Later" attacks be responsible for the theft of >$1B of funds by 2030? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will software engineer's real salaries be lower in 2026 than they were in 2022, per Levels.fyi? (Inflation adjusted!) | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Twitter have at least 400 million monthly active users in 2030? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Pedophilia be Legal in a Western Country by 2040? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will anyone other than Trump or DeSantis win a state in the 2024 Republican primaries? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will there be a driver fatality in the NASCAR Cup Series by 2050? | 0.58 | Manifold |
If Trump is indicted, will his 2024 nomination chances predicted on Polymarket fall at least 2%? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will the Republican nominee for President in the 2024 election be more than 70 years old? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will the Republican nominee for President in the 2024 election be more than 50 years old? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will Destiny do another canvassing event leading into the 2024 elections? | 0.9 | Manifold |
Will Scott Alexander be removed from Substack before 2030 | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will circumcision be abolished by 2050? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will the AI-powered romantic partners market exceed $10 billion yearly revenue before 2030? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will an AI be capable of substituting for a high-quality criminal defense lawyer before 2030? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will the two Aviation Boulevard stations on Los Angeles Metro's K Line open before the end of 2024? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will 3D printing software let people auto-print/create a RealDoll of anyone they want by 2028? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Brandon get a girlfriend by the end of 2024? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will Jose Luis Ricon convert to Christian/Mormon Transhumanism by 2030? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will a published biography be made out of Jose Luis Ricon's life by 2030? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will a Tabula Muris, a dataset of single-cell transcriptome data, be made out of any parrot/cockatoo species by 2029? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will a comprehensive proteomic atlas be made of any parrot or cockatoo species by 2027? | 0.52 | Manifold |
US whitecollar union membership reaches 6M by 2028 | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will a Carrington-like event solar storm hit Earth before 2030? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will a weakly general AI become publicly known before 2030? | 0.73 | Manifold |
AI: >1% of Gdp (by 2028) | 0.8 | Manifold |
AI: >1% of Gdp (by 2025) | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Stockeld Dreamery be a significant player in plantbased cheese in 2030? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will the U.S. and China go to war by 2025? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will there be AI generated GTA games/missions based out of any cities skylines 2 city by 2029? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Crimea before 2025? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will Zelenskyy visit Moscow before 2025? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI have >$10 billion in revenue by 2030? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI have >$10 billion in revenue by 2027? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will Putin visit Kyiv before 2025? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump be the 2024 Republican nominee for president? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will Ron DeSantis be the 2024 Republican nominee for president? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Mike Pence be the 2024 Republican nominee for president? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Glenn Youngkin be the 2024 Republican nominee for president? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Nikki Haley be the 2024 Republican nominee for president? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will polish army officialy enter Ukraine by 2025? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 presidential election have at least 60% voter turnout | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will the Internet Archive be available in 2046? | 0.78 | Manifold |
On net 3000 people removed from UK to Rwanda by start 2029 if conservatives in government at next election | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will it be possible to play a simcopter or streets of SimCity based on cities skylines 2 maps by 2029? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will a robot demonstrate exceptional speed and performance in extreme environments by 2040? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance? | 0.06 | Manifold |
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