text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
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|---|---|---|
Will a robot capable of passing both the Coffee Test and a strong, adversarial Turing test be created before 2100? | 0.92 | Manifold |
Will Trygve Slagsvold Vedum remain finance minister until the 2025 elections have been completed? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will the Jonas Gahr Støre government survive until the 2025 elections have been completed? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Lunar Gateway first occupied by a crew before 1/1/2028? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will an AI be able to create a website via text prompt by end of 2024? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will an AI outcompete the best humans on any one programming contest of IOI, ICPC, or CodeForces before 2025? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will involuntary servitude as punishment for a crime be illegal in all US states before 2030? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will Andrew Witty (CEO of UnitedHealth) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will Andrew Witty (CEO of UnitedHealth) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Andrew Witty (CEO of UnitedHealth) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will C.C. Wei (CEO of TSMC) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Ryan McInerney (CEO of Visa) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will C.C. Wei (CEO of TSMC) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Joaquin Duato (CEO of Johnson & Johnson) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will a dust storm pick up material from the Great Salt Lake and cause significant health concerns by 2030? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump be the 2024 nominee if he is NOT arrested in 2023? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump be the 2024 nominee (now that he's been arrested in 2023)? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will Escher Lefkoff be the #1 ranked pinball player on the first day of 2024? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2024 elections? | 0.61 | Manifold |
My probability in 2026 that training transformer LMs will eventually lead to inner misalignment issues | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before 2036? | 0.93 | Manifold |
Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before 2026? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will Bitcoin change its block reward mechanism by 2040? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will the German rap group K.I.Z release a new album by 30.6.2024? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump be convicted of any crime by the end of 2024? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will software engineer's real salaries be lower in 2025 than they were in 2022, per Levels.fyi? (Inflation adjusted!) | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will there be a crash in revenue from internet advertising before 2025? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Sicily be connected with the mainland by a bridge before 2038? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Jose Luis Ricon still be at retro.bio by the end of 2024? | 0.89 | Manifold |
US whitecollar union membership reaches 10M by 2028 | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will anymore schools leave the pac 12 before 2025? | 0.86 | Manifold |
By the end of 2025, the CDF experiment's 2022 measurement of the W boson mass will be supported by another experiment. | 0.12 | Manifold |
By 2030, will the Mu2e experiment at Fermilab find signals of physics beyond the Standard Model? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing before 2026? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will Ron DeSantis declare himself as a candidate for the 2024 election before 15th May 2023? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will Narendra Modi be the PM of India in 2024? | 0.9 | Manifold |
Will there be more paralegals and legal assistants employed in 2026 than today? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will the server survive until 2026? | 0.94 | Manifold |
Will an AI outcompete the best humans on any one programming contest of IOI, ICPC, or CodeForces before 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will El Salvador's murder rate be below 10 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2030? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will South Africa remain a democracy until 2030? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will off shore wind turbines be found responsible for a whale death before 2026? | 0.42 | Manifold |
AI: 178 LSAT by 2025 | 0.58 | Manifold |
AI: 175 LSAT by 2025 | 0.73 | Manifold |
AI: Self-Driving Majority of Miles by 2040 | 0.55 | Manifold |
AI: Self-Driving Majority of Miles by 2028 | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Russia lose any part of Outer Manchuria by 2035? | 0.17 | Manifold |
AI: USAMO Qualifier by 2040 | 0.84 | Manifold |
AI: USAMO Qualifier by 2030 | 0.65 | Manifold |
AI: USAMO Qualifier by 2028 | 0.61 | Manifold |
AI: USAMO Qualifier by 2025 | 0.42 | Manifold |
In 2028, will at least 35m Americans be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion? | 0.12 | Manifold |
In 2028, will at least 3.5m Americans be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion? | 0.37 | Manifold |
If someone dies because of a Letzte Generation protest before 2025, will it be an activist? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will a Republican in name only win the GOP primaries for the 2024 election? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will any current or former US president go to space before 2030? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk quit Twitter by the end of 2024? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Kim Jong Un still be the Supreme Leader of North Korea at the beginning of 2025? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2029? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2028? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2027? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2026? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2024? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy still be alive at the end of 2024? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will GPT-5 be released before July 2024? | 0.23 | Manifold |
In 2028, will at least 100m Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will the first main US presidential debate for the 2024 election include any mention of AI? | 0.8 | Manifold |
In 2028, will at least 35m (1/10) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach? | 0.28 | Manifold |
In 2028, will at least 3.5m (1/100) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will faster-than-light communication be possible before 2300? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will AI be able to generate non-trivial, original codebase in a compiled language (C++, Java, ...) before 2025? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will AI spread through malware before 2025? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will there be significant social unrest, protests, riots, etc. over the results of the 2024 presidential election? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will A.I. Have Significantly More Common Sense by end of 2024? | 0.75 | Manifold |
What percentage of the global population will be internet users in 2030? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will the Seattle Link rail system exist as planned by EoY 2042 | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Bytedance be banned in the US by 2025? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will Northern Ireland join the Republic of Ireland by 2100? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will there be a Cellcraft 2 before 2030? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will an AI get a perfect SAT score before 2025? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will GPT-5 be released before 2025? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will an autonomous humanoid robot consistently defeat top tennis players by 2040? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will a robot autonomously climb a set of challenging mountains and rock formations by 2040? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2040? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will a self-replicating space probe capable of exploring and utilizing resources be created before 2040? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will the USCIS receive more H-1B registrations for FY 2024 than it did for FY 2023? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will a game of Pong be played with a galaxy as the ball before 2040? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will a cryonics patient be successfully biologically revived before 2040? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will the Sun be substantially disassembled before 2040? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will a new subatomic particle be experimentally confirmed to exist before 2040? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will an artificial black hole be created before 2040? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will all infectious diseases of all types be effectively eliminated from human civilization before 2040? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will the protein folding problem be completely solved before 2040? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will an explosive at least one thousand times more powerful than the Tsar Bomba be developed before 2040? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will a spacecraft capable of propulsion above 1% the speed of light be achieved before 2040? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will fully realistic virtual reality be developed before 2040? | 0.75 | Manifold |
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