text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will FAIR's research on LLMs still be open through 2024? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will anybody except Joe Biden win a state in the 2024 Democratic primary? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will a therapy that substantially slows down or reverses the aging process in humans be developed before 2040? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will at least one gram of antimatter be manufactured in a one year period before 2040? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will whole genome synthesis be developed for eukaryotic organisms before 2040? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will there be a year, before 2040, in which *net* AI suffering outweighs net 2022 farmed animal suffering? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will there be a year, before 2030, in which *net* AI suffering outweighs net 2022 farmed animal suffering? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will it be illegal to drive a car in the US by end of 2040? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will there be a year, before 2040, in which *total* AI suffering outweighs total 2022 farmed animal suffering? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will there be a year, before 2030, in which *total* AI suffering outweighs total 2022 farmed animal suffering? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will a complex nanoscale self-replicating assembler be developed before 2040? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will New Zealand win the most rowing gold medals at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will France win every handball gold medal at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will any of Greg Becker's proceeds from stock sales be clawed back by the end of 2024? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will Manifold cease allowing mana donations to charity for at least 1 month before 2028? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Robin Hobb's "Farseer Trilogy" books be turned into a TV series by 2030? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will Patrick Rothfuss's "Kingkiller Chronicles" books be turned into a TV series by 2030? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will Scott Lynch's "Gentleman Bastard" books be turned into a TV series by 2030? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will Joe Abercrombie's "First Law" books be turned into a TV series by 2030? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus] | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2030? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus] | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2025? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus] | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will Levels.fyi report that software engineer's salaries are lower in 2026 than they were in 2022? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will any of the 2024 Nobel Laureates be Jewish? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will either the Republican or Democratic party of a Jew on the presidential ticket in 2024? | 0.14 | Manifold |
US adopts pharmaceutical reciprocity with the UK, some/all of the EU, Japan, or Australia before 2035 | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will aging be cured by 2100? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will Democrats control both the House and Senate after the 2024 elections? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will any model in the GPT series draw me a donut consistently in ASCII by 2025? | 0.96 | Manifold |
Will anyone be able to get a Zipline delivery in SF before 2025? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will Labour gain the necessary seats to form a government in the 2024 GE | 0.81 | Manifold |
Labour will win the 2024 GE | 0.83 | Manifold |
What proportion new car/suv/light truck sales will be hydrogen powered in 2030? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will the U.S. win the gold medal in the Men's Basketball at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will a fully AI-generated series or film be available on a major streaming platform before 2025? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will an athlete representing Jamaica win the Women's 100m dash at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will an athlete representing the U.S. win the Men's 100m dash at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will any model in the GPT series draw me a donut consistently in ASCII by 2028? | 0.96 | Manifold |
Will there be a maximum speed on the German Autobahn at the end of 2025? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will a rider from the Netherlands win the Women's road race in the cycling at the 2024 Summer Olympics? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will at least 90 different nations win medals at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will at least 60 different nations win gold medals at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Jensen Huang (CEO of Nvidia) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will “Tiger King” be on the 2024 US presidential ballot in at least one state? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Trump is against the U.S. sending Ukraine aid. Will he reverse his position as the 2024 presidential election nears? | 0.3 | Manifold |
DeSantis is against the U.S. sending Ukraine aid. Will he reverse his position as the 2024 presidential election nears? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Natural Language Robot by 2030? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Natural Language Robot by 2030? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Ready Player One by 2030? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will MacAskill Arrested by EOY 2025 | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will at least 3,000 tonnes of octopus🐙 be farmed in a year before 2026? [Early Resolution via Metaculus] | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will someone die as the direct consequence of a Letzte Generation protest by 2025? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Big fail during 2024 Paris Summer Olympic | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will there be a public transportation strike affecting 2024 Paris Olympics | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will Winnie the Pooh be unbanned in China before 2040? | 0.88 | Manifold |
Will the second law of thermodynamics get a revision before 2030 | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will a Badminton gold medal be won by a non-Asian country at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will an iPhone ship with a >1B LLM by 2028? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will an iPhone ship with a >1B LLM by 2025? | 0.61 | Manifold |
an LLM as capable as GPT-4 will run on a 3090 before Sept 14th | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will someone release a crypto-LLM by 2025? | 0.78 | Manifold |
In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Warren Buffett (CEO of Berkshire Hathaway) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Sundar Pichai (CEO of Alphabet) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will anyone on Manifold have at least 4000 referrals by the end of 2023? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will there be a proof or disproof of the Riemann Hypothesis by the end of 2024? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will any AI get a perfect score on the Putnam exam before April 2024? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will a team of robots win a game of soccer against the winners of the most recent World Cup by the end of 2030? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will a team of robots win a game of soccer against the winners of the most recent World Cup by the end of 2040? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will a team of robots win a game of soccer against the winners of the most recent World Cup by the end of 2050? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will P vs NP be resolved by 2043? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will any AI be legally recognized by any country's government as being a "person" deserving of certain rights by 2029? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI name a year by which they expect to have achieved AGI by 01/01/2025? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will the US win more than a third of all gold medals won in the swimming events at the 2024 Summer Olympics? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will websites give up on bot detection using captcha-like tasks by 2028? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will any encryption scheme suggested by the NSA's Commercial National Security Algorithm Suite be broken by April 2028? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will Mkgoose go on a date with Aella before April of 2028? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will any car drive itself from the Empire State Building to the Golden Gate Bridge before April 2028? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will any AI get a perfect score on the SAT before April 2024? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will anyone have a functioning ironman suit by 2035? | 0.23 | Manifold |
By the end of 2024, will at least 1 substantive Linux kernel commit have been written entirel by a large language model? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2030? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2040? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will a LLM of at least GPT-3 caliber be runnable on a mobile phone by April of 2025? | 1 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI announce a plan to put more focus addressing inner alignment issues before 2024? | 0.58 | Manifold |
By 2050 will it be clear that any section of the U.S. Armed Forces entered DEFCON 1 between 2020 and 2030? | 0.42 | Manifold |
By 2050 will it be clear that any section of the U.S. Armed Forces entered DEFCON 2 between 2020 and 2030? | 0.55 | Manifold |
By 2050 will it be clear that any section of the U.S. Armed Forces entered DEFCON 3 between 2020 and 2030? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will an AI reach expert, candidate master, or master on Codeforces by April 2024? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will GPT-5 be released before June 2024? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will any AI reach Mythic on MTG Arena by 2025? | 0.41 | Manifold |
At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability? | 0.59 | Manifold |
By April 2025, will there be an AI that at least 1 million people trust for medical advice? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will AI solve any of Hilbert's unsolved problems before April of 2025? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI change their name to no longer include the word "open" by the end of 2024? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Israel be a democracy in 2030? | 0.89 | Manifold |
Will a robot be able to change a diaper with no mess or fuss in a domestic setting by April of 2028? | 0.07 | Manifold |
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