text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will any human-created robot or life form create a copy of itself before 2030? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will the first law of thermodynamics get a revision before 2030 | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will any best-selling work of fiction be written entirely by an AI by April of 2028? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will AI solve a famous unsolved crime before April of 2028? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will South Korea win every gold medal in the archery events at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will any robot be able to fully change a duvet cover before April of 2024? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will the S&P500 be over 3900 this time next week? | 0.94 | Manifold |
Will Japan win half or more of the gold medals in the Women's freestyle wrestling at the 2024 Summer Olympics? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will any LLM have roughly GPT-3-level losses with a context window of at least 50,000 tokens before April of 2024? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will Japan win more than half of the Judo gold medals at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will any LLM have a context window of at least 1 million characters by the end of 2028? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will there be a humanoid robot that can move with human-like precision and flexibility before April of 2028? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will AI be able to write a mystery novel which half of readers can solve and half can’t before April 2024? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will China win every Table Tennis gold medal at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will AI be able to make Alex Wilkins laugh before April of 2024? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will Destiny participant & complete another DnD campaign by August 7th 2024? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will 🇧🇾 Belarus 🇧🇾 become an EU candidate country before 2030? [Early Resolution via Metaculus end of year] | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Nintendo use LLM to generate lines for Luigi or Waluigi in any video game before 2033? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will same-sex marriage become legal in Vietnam before 2030? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will $TSLA close above $300 per share by December 30 2025? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will Destiny have Scott Alexander on stream before 2024? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will "mass surveillance" in the United States happen by 2035? (cf Nick Bostrom) | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will Cannabis be legal in Germany by the end of 2025? | 0.94 | Manifold |
Will Cannabis be legal in Germany by the end of 2024? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win the Time Magazine person of the year by 2042? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will the gender pay gap in weekly real earnings close to within 5% before 2040 | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will the gender pay gap in weekly real earnings close to within 5% before 2035 | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will the gender pay gap in weekly real earnings close to within 5% before 2030 | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will charged lepton flavor violation via muon to electron conversion be observed by 2030? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Mining related deaths in the democratic republic of Congo will be lower in 2024 than in 2023 | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will Kerbal Space Program 2 have 'mostly positive' Steam reviews by 2024 | 0.07 | Manifold |
Average price for carton of eggs will be higher in 2024 than the average price in 2023 | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will Kosovo recognize being part of Serbia before 2050? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will Allan Lichtman's "The Keys to the White House" correctly predict the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential election? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Google Play Store default rate for large apps <29% by 2030 | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will a magazine publish a +8000 word piece about the Silicon Valley Bank saga? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will a Beyond the Standard Model Particle be discovered by 2025? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will the FDA approve a drug for anti-aging use by the end of 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will SpaceX's HLS lander launch by 2025? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will NASA's Psyche mission launch before 2024? | 0.89 | Manifold |
Will the United States of America win at least one tenth of all medals at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris? | 0.95 | Manifold |
Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027? | 0.32 | Manifold |
What will the dollar price of a full-body cryopreservation for a lifetime member of the Cryonics Institute be in 2040? | 0.81 | Manifold |
What will the dollar price of a full-body cryopreservation for a lifetime member of the Cryonics Institute be in 2030? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will the United States of America win at least one tenth of all Gold medals at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will the United States of America win the most Gold medals at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will the United States of America win the most medals at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris? | 0.82 | Manifold |
Will any Volkswagen vehicle sold in 2024 contain a solid-state battery? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will the VTB Bank collapse before EOY 2030? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will the Sberbank of Russia collapse before EOY 2030? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will Bitcoin undergo a hard fork before 2027? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Terraform Industries begin to commercialize in 2024? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2025? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will the SF to LA segment of the HSR be completed by 2040? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will the SF to LA segment of the California HSR be completed by 2050? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will the San Jose to San Francisco segment of the HSR be completed by 2050? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will the California HSR complete the Fresno to San Jose segment by 2030? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will the California HSR from LA to SF be completed by 2040? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will Amin H. Nasser (CEO of Saudi Aramco) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Mike Roman (CEO of 3M) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Massachusetts East-West rail be under construction before 2027? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will the FDIC $250,000 limit for deposit insurance change by 2025? | 0.5 | Manifold |
South Park cancelled from Comedy Central before 2040 | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will Bitcoin fall below $10k for 1 hour before 2040? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will someone be slapped at the 2024 Oscars? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Replika will have an English language Wikipedia page before 2030 | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will Meta's twitter alternative have a couple of "popular" users before end of 2024? | 0.97 | Manifold |
Will Zcash overtake Monero in marketcap before 2027? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will Ron DeSantis be the winner of the Republican nomination for the 2024 US Presidential election? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will David Sacks be found to have committed a felony before 2030? | 0.26 | Manifold |
AI interpretability finds "heel turn" or "waluigi" circuits by 2028-03-11? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Terrascope mission launched by 2035? | 0.15 | Manifold |
By 2033, will at least one top-10 dating app allow users to rank people? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will Pizza Tower have an official sequel by 2025? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Pizza Tower have official DLC by 2025? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will Biden be hospitalized overnight before August 2024? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will the average SAT scores of TJSST students be higher in 2025 than in 2020? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will the average SAT scores of The Knowledge Society (TKS) students be higher in 2025 than in 2020? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will the Democrats win the 2024 US Presidential election? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will Timeless Coffee open a location in San Francisco by the end of 2024? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump be the Republican party nominee in the 2028 US presidential election? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will the Magic: The Gathering reserved list be removed or broken before 2030? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will Russia move the capital away from Moscow before the end of 2024? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will a Japanese astronaut land on Moon by 2035? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will a later version of GPT be able to access email data into the model by 2027? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will Destiny be Aella's baby daddy by the end of 2025? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will an Atlas Fellow become a Thiel Fellow by 2027? | 0.61 | Manifold |
The Catholic Church releases a religious LLM before June 2026 | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Large Language Models be able to match up all queries of my real name matched up with all my online handles by 2026 | 0.55 | Manifold |
Life Extension Velocity (LEV) - for every year we survive, we gain an extra year - by 2036? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Andrew Gao (https://andrewgao.dev/ ) have more than 100 Facebook friends by 2024? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will any current member of Congress leave their party before 2026. | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will any nation leave the EU by 2025 | 0.16 | Manifold |
When will @TetraspaceWest reach 3000 Twitter followers? | 0.57 | Manifold |
When will @TetraspaceWest reach 3000 Twitter followers? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin run for President of the United States in 2024 election. | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will Quora have a major change to its interface (even if AI-generated) by 2028? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will +10% of (12 cohorts of) Y-Combinator startups be marked as inactive by April 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will an AI system be judged to have killed a human on its own initiative and for no other purpose by 2030? | 0.26 | Manifold |
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