text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will a published research paper be revealed to have been written by an AI before 2025? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will a humanoid robot provide some kind of commercial service to me by 2026? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will we have a popular LLM fine-tuned on people's personal texts by June 1, 2026? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will we have a popular LLM fine-tuned on people's personal texts by June 1, 2025? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will we have a popular LLM fine-tuned on people's personal texts by June 1, 2024? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will the market "This market should resolve to YES in 2024, but I will not personally resolve it" resolve to YES? | 0.94 | Manifold |
This market should resolve to YES in 2024, but I will not personally resolve it | 0.99 | Manifold |
In 2028, will any major hospital advertise the use of AI as the primary method of diagnosis of human patients? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will Satya Nadella (CEO of Microsoft) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Tim Cook (CEO of Apple) be charged with a serious crime before 2030? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Larry Ellison be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Jeff Bezos be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump be indicted multiple times by the end of 2024? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Is GPT-4 best? (Thru 2025) | 0.26 | Manifold |
GPT-5 by 2025? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will DeepMind publish their alignment plan before 2024? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities have over 1,000 LessWrong upvotes before 2024? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will Carlos Ghosn run a car company again by 2025 | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will LowTierGod get banned from Twitch before 2024? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will Twitter lose more than 100 million dollars on labor law-related lawsuits from Musk's Twitter tenure, before 2026? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will Twitter lose more than a billion dollars on labor law-related lawsuits from Musk's Twitter tenure, before 2026? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will a Babylon 5 reboot be released before 2027? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Embryo Selection—2050 | 0.25 | Manifold |
Embryo Selection—2030 | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Manifold have a private/legal option for clinicians to track the quality of their clinical judgements by 2025? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Susan Athey win a Nobel Prize before 2030? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will it be possible to search for text across ALL YouTube videos by 2026? | 0.59 | Manifold |
If Quora goes public, will its market cap be higher than Pinterest by 2028? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on Sesame Street by 2030? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will 3Blue1Brown publish a video about nice numbers by end of 2024? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will the Dias Lab's report of an N-doped lutetium hydride near-ambient superconductor be replicated by 2025? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will there be any astronomical evidence of AI wiping out another civilization, published on Earth before 2100? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Simone Tebet be in the top 2 most voted Brazilian presidential candidates in 2026? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Romeu Zema be in the top 2 most voted Brazilian presidential candidates in 2026? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will the moon have its own time zone before 2026 | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will Bing diagnose Parkinson's disease in California on May 1 2035? | 0.9 | Manifold |
Will Bing diagnose Parkinson's disease in the EU on May 1 2035? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Bing diagnose Parkinson's disease in EU on May 1 2026? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Does Bing restrict medical queries in Belgium, EU on October 1 2025? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Does Bing restrict medical queries in the US on October 1 2025? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will a GLP-1 agonist diabetes / weight loss drug be the top bestselling drug in 2025? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will 'Beyond Good and Evil 2' release before 2026? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will S&P 500 increase in 2024? | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will Sarah Wagenknecht be a member of a German party other than "Die Linke" by the end of 2024? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will the FDA ban erythritol before 2028? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will Openai announce, or perform, a test-run of their agi-collaboration clause before Dec 31st, 2025? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will the Against Malaria Foundation reach $1 billion raised by the end of 2026? | 0.7 | Manifold |
New CEO at five of 13 top companies by April 1 2025 | 0.13 | Manifold |
The Elam ending will used in an Olympics basketball game before 2040 | 0.45 | Manifold |
The Elam ending will used in a regular season or playoffs Euro League game before 2030 | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will Mike Pence be on the Republican Party's presidential ticket in 2024? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will any podcast episode featuring Eliezer Yudkowsky as a guest get more than 1 million views on YouTube before 2024? | 1 | Manifold |
Will any podcast episode featuring Eliezer Yudkowsky as a guest get more than 5 million views on YouTube before 2024? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will meta announce Its shutting down its metaverse by the end of 2026? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will Unsong be published by 2025? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will Michelle Obama be the Democratic nominee for president in 2024? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will the Research Domain Criteria term return more than 50,000 results on Web of Science core collection, on 01/01/2030? | 0.24 | Manifold |
What is the max number of GitHub stars Cleodora will get before 2024? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will meta announce Its shutting down its metaverse by the end of 2024? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will Mitsubishi Heavy Industries' H3 rocket launch again before 2024? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will Andrés Manuel López Obrador be the de facto head of government of Mexico on July 1st, 2025? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will any Magic event of at least 100 players in the USA require masks in the first three months of 2024? | 0.42 | Manifold |
New CEO at four of 13 top companies by April 1 2025 | 0.18 | Manifold |
New CEO at three of 13 top companies by April 1 2025 | 0.45 | Manifold |
New CEO at two of 13 top companies by April 1 2025 | 0.74 | Manifold |
New CEO at one of 13 top companies by April 1 2025 | 0.9 | Manifold |
Will China's navy still be the largest in the world in 2025? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will there ever be more Google search volume about AI Alignment than about Light Pollution, for any day before EOY 2024? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will Lebanon officially abandon the Lebanese Pound and adopt the US Dollar as their national currency by the end of 2025 | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will Lebanon officially abandon the Lebanese Pound and adopt the US Dollar as their national currency by the end of 2024 | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will Kurzgesagt release a video specifically about the AI Alignment Problem before the end of 2024? | 0.87 | Manifold |
The Elam ending will used in a regular season or playoffs NBA game before 2030 | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will any government in the US/EU/UK/Canada/Australia mandate installing far-UVC lamps in any public space before 2030? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will timber construction intentionally sequester 100gt of C02eq by 2050? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will direct timber burial intentionally sequester 100gt CO2eq by 2050? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will the Germany-wide public transport ticket ("Deutschlandticket") cost 49 Euro or less per month in December 2024? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will NASA Juno mission get extended past Sept. 2025? | 0.66 | Manifold |
SF Air Quality Significantly improves in 2024 | 0.3 | Manifold |
Manifold API lets me query for my holdings before June 2024 | 0.79 | Manifold |
Joel Haver wins an academy award before 2030 | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will at least 15 top-100 universities have a faculty-led technical AGI safety effort by the end of 2024? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will at least 25 top-100 universities have a faculty-led technical AGI safety effort by the end of 2024? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will Google have an active AGI safety effort by the end of 2024? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will Baidu have an active AGI safety effort by the end of 2024? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will Meta have an active AGI safety effort by the end of 2024? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. run for President in 2024? | 1 | Manifold |
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2030? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2026? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2025? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will my tinnitus be cured by the end of 2080? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will the US health care spending exceed a share of 23% of the national GDP by 2030? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump be indicted before the 2024 Presidential Election? | 0.97 | Manifold |
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be a guest on the 80000 hours podcast in 2023? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will ChatGPT keep a free to access option by 2025? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will drawing AIs like DALL-E be able to draw convicing hands 9 times out of 10 before the end of 2024? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will Gary Neville stand for any publicly elected position before 2030? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will NASA's Juno mission be extended past Sept. 2025? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will Billie Eilish come out as transgender by 2025? | 0.06 | Manifold |
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