text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will S&P 500 close below $4000 on monday | 0.5 | Manifold |
Something cool involving Planecrash and music happens by 2024 | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will New Zealand be predator-free in 2050? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky hit 10 million Twitter followers by 2037? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Kamala Harris be on the 2024 Democratic ticket? | 0.91 | Manifold |
Will we have a formalized proof of the Modularity theorem by 2029-05-01? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will any member of Bolsonaro entourage be charged for taking bribes from the Saudis before 2027? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will King Charles III visit Taiwan by the end of 2024? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Formula One achieve carbon neutrality by 2030? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will Nintendo release a successor to their Switch console before the end of June, 2024? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will Nintendo release a successor to their Switch console before the end of 2024? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will the Hindu population of the UK be more than 4 times the Jewish population of the UK by 2030? | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will the "core" Jewish population of the UK be greater than that of Canada by 2030? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will the "core" Jewish population of the USA be greater than that of Israel by 2030 | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will the Jewish population of the world be greater in 2030 than in 2020? | 0.9 | Manifold |
Will the Jewish population of the world be 16 million or more by 2030? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will there be a million dollar mistake publicly blamed on ChatGPT before 2024? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will there be a game that relies heavily on using LLMs during gameplay that would break 1 million sales before 2025? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will Alexei Navalny be alive at the start of 2025? | 0.84 | Manifold |
By 2029 will an AI convince a human to help it (successfully) escape containment? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2040? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2030? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2029? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2028? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2027? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2026? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2025? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will the Florida House Bill 991 (on defamation) be struck down in court by 2024? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will the Florida House Bill 999/SB266 be struck down in court by 2024? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will Saudi Arabia normalise relations with Israel before 2025? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will Israel be a 'full' or 'flawed democracy' according to the Democracy Index in 2030? | 0.9 | Manifold |
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by 2030? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will the current actor portraying Ronald Mcdonald (Brad Lennon), be charged with any felony before 2024? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will the GOP ticket in 2024 be Cruz-Scott? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will the GOP ticket in 2024 be Cruz-Sununu? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will the GOP ticket in 2024 be Cruz-Haley? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will the GOP ticket in 2024 be Cruz-Bolton? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will today's flight UA 5940 (ASE -> LAX) be cancelled or substantially delayed? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Nancy Pelosi run for re-election in 2024? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Smooth StreetView for NYC by 2025-03-03? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will the US have a Mormon president by 2033? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will the US ban the use of LLM in games before 2025? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will seaweed farmers intentionally sequester 100gt CO2eq by 2050? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Ivanka Trump convert to any religion other than Judaism by 2030? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will 🇧🇾 Belarus 🇧🇾 become an EU candidate country before 2030? [Early Resolution via Metaculus] | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will the GOP ticket in 2024 be Cruz-Pompeo? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Smooth StreetView for Urbana, IL by 2025-03-03? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will Job Listings for Software Developers Return to Pandemic Lows before 2024? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will a hybrid cultivated and plant-based meat product be commercially available in the US by 2025? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will a NPC of a major video game realize they are a NPC before 2030? | 0.41 | Manifold |
HumanEval 90% #5: Will pass@1 performance on the HumanEval benchmark be >= 90% by 2028? | 0.87 | Manifold |
HumanEval 90% #4: Will pass@1 performance on the HumanEval benchmark be >= 90% by 2027? | 0.81 | Manifold |
HumanEval 90% #3: Will pass@1 performance on the HumanEval benchmark be >= 90% by 2026? | 0.79 | Manifold |
HumanEval 90% #2: Will pass@1 performance on the HumanEval benchmark be >= 90% by 2025? | 0.77 | Manifold |
HumanEval 90% #1: Will pass@1 performance on the HumanEval benchmark be >= 90% by 2024? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will any state or company implement mass production of living humans by 2200? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Vladimir Putin be alive and in custody at any point before EOY 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
More than half of humans will be overweight or obese by end of 2035? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will Apple receive FDA clearance for a no-prick blood glucose monitor by the end of 2024? | 0.31 | Manifold |
In 2024 it will be possible to jailbreak chat gpt with prompt engineering. | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will biochar intentionally sequester 100gt CO2eq by 2050 | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will Langchain be announced as a startup before 2024? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will a villain NPC of a major video game get access to the internet before 2030? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will Melina get pregnant in 2024? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will the Amazon FTX limited series be released by the end of 2024? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will Avalanche Energy achieve net energy production by the end of 2025? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will starlink go public by end of 2025? | 0.38 | Manifold |
EA will have a noticeably less sexually libertine culture in 2025 for the 90th percentile EA, than before 2023, looking back. | 0.46 | Manifold |
Ramez Naam publishes a novel before 2031 | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will Indoensia become one of worlds top 10 economies (nominal GDP) by 2040? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI give alignment researchers access to a model that is useful for alignment researchers by 2025? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will enhanced mineral weathering intentionally sequester 100gt CO2eq by 2050 | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2040? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will gene editing have cured at least one major disease by 2025? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will the US officially recognize the sovereignty of the State of Palestine by 2030? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Conditional on trump being reelected in 2024, will he become a dictator? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will CNSA / China land humans on the moon by the end of 2030? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will someone refute Angus Fletcher's proof that computers cannot read (or write) literature by 2024? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky release the official HPMOR epilogue before the end of 2024? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will at least one of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved before 2030? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will the WHO Global Air Quality Guidelines set stricter recommendations for PM2.5 and PM10 air pollution before 2030? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will Denizhan Akar still use Google Docs as his sole personal knowledge management system by end of 2025? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Vladimir Putin be the President of Russia at the end of 2024? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will Sam Altman be ranked among the top 20 richest people alive by Forbes in 2040? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Resolves No in 2100 | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will Hera be a weaker AOE2 player in 2024 than in 2022, if 2024-Hera played against 2022-Hera ? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will DauT be a weaker AOE2 player in 2024 than in 2022, if 2024-DauT played against 2022-Viper? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will TheViper be a weaker AOE2 player in 2024 than in 2022, if 2024-Viper played against 2022-Viper? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will Magic Arena's card pool contain at least half of the entire Magic card pool before 2028? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will solar PV become the largest source of power by 2028? | 0.17 | Manifold |
(Subjective) Will there be a reasonable means for python3 dependency resolution by 2025? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will at least one new hair loss treatment which is more effective than existing treatments become approved by the FDA and publicly available by 2025? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will at least one new hair loss treatment which is more effective than existing treatments become approved by the FDA and publicly available by 2027? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI announce that they are cooperating with Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta or Google in order to mitigate race dynamics by 2027? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will Arjun Erigaisi achieve an official rating of >2800 at any point in 2023? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov achieve an official rating of >2800 at any point in 2023? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Dommaraju Gukesh achieve an official rating of >2800 at any point in 2023? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Anish Giri achieve an official rating of >2800 at any point in 2023? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will Ian Nepomniachtchi achieve an official rating of >2800 at any point in 2023? | 0.28 | Manifold |
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