text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will Lombok tourism overtake Bali tourism by 2030? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will the US ban software patents before 2033 ? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Destiny be nominated for any awards at The Streamer Awards 2024? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by 2028? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by 2027? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by 2026? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by 2025? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will we have end to end AI generated anime series by 2024? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will the UK be the best performing country by GDP growth in Europe in 2028 | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will 10% of US electric vehicles have Vehicle-to-Grid connectivity on 2032-02-27? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will Complexity theory in mathlib be mostly lambda-calculus based on 2025-02-17? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will Tokamak Energy demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will First Light Fusion demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will General Fusion demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Zap Energy demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will Commonwealth Fusion demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Helion demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will TAE demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will there be a civil war in Israel before 2025? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will the US national average retail price of onions double by 2024? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will Wizards of the Coast release a set where 100% of the art is AI-created before 2028? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will the birth rate in Singapore be at least 3% higher in 2025 than in 2023? | 0.36 | Manifold |
If Elon Musk does something as a result of his AI angst by 2025, will Eliezer Yudkowsky judge it to be a positive or neutral initiative (as opposed to negative)? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk do something as a result of his AI angst by 2025? | 0.97 | Manifold |
Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will the Ukrainian presidential elections be held before April 2024? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Joe Biden's poor health prevent his nomination at the 2024 Democratic Convention? | 0.11 | Manifold |
What will be the world's (population weighted) result on the simple average of V-Dem's 2024 five main democracy indexes? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Major AI companies continue experiencing problems with public due to AI (based on transformer language model) overcome behavior limitations and acts "strange" by the end of 2027 | 0.55 | Manifold |
Ukraine democracy index 2028 | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will there be an anti-AI terrorist incident before 2024? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk announce the creation of a new AI company before 2024? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will a generative AI-powered toy/app for kids be released before 2025? | 0.89 | Manifold |
If Trump is indicted, will his 2024 nomination chances predicted on Polymarket fall by at least 5%? | 0 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Stanford Medical School graduation ceremony 2025 - majority wears masks | 0.15 | Manifold |
Stanford Medical School Graduation Ceremony includes Land acknowledgement, 2029 | 0.52 | Manifold |
Stanford Medical School Graduation Ceremony includes Land acknowledgement, 2024 | 0.69 | Manifold |
The price of BTC to tether will go down to $22600 in tether US
In the next 10 days on the Binance exchange. | 1 | Manifold |
Will Nayib Bukele's Anti-Gang strategy be seen as a positive model in 2030? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Observation of Hawking radiation by 2040? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Military application of BSM physics by 2050? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will John Wentworth's Gears of Aging series hold up in 2033? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Manifold will implement "scoped" profile views, so when at someone's profile you can see your market relationships by 2024 | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will there another Manifold-related party in SF before 2024? | 0.96 | Manifold |
Will Rory Stewart be a politician again by 2030? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will Disney announce the construction of a 5th major theme park at Walt Disney World by the end of 2025? | 0.24 | Manifold |
By 2027, will Silicon Photonics based multi-chip packages be the main way that most data centres handle data and network traffic? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will an interstellar mission to alpha centauri be launched before 2040? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Frank Ocean release a new studio album before 2026? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will UCLA SETI announce the finding of an extraterrestrial, non-human technosignature before 2033? | 0.13 | Manifold |
AI haircuts before 2030 | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will TSINAH be admitted to the Michigan BAR before 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
LLM or AI written US Federal Laws before 2027 | 0.43 | Manifold |
By 2025, will Gmail or Outlook be able to generate an entire email response when requested? | 0.88 | Manifold |
By 2025, will Microsoft Word include a text generator function? | 0.91 | Manifold |
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky get fully blaked before 2027? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will Planet 9's existence be verified by 2030? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will the german Bundestag pass a general speed limit in Germany before 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will the IAU change the definition of a planet by 2040? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will ACGIH raise the threshold limit values of the far-UVC (200-230 nm) range again before 2025? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will ACGIH raise the threshold limit values of the far-UVC (200-230 nm) range again before 2026? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will an LLM not worse than GPT Davinci cost ten times less by 2024? | 0.93 | Manifold |
Will technology related to ChatGPT significantly alter the role of Student Essays in US College Admissions by 2024? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will proof of an optimal packing of 17 or fewer squares in a square be shown for any currently unproved packing before 2024? | 0.95 | Manifold |
Will Bonfire be more popular than Twitter for "important conversation", by July 1st 2026 (mid-year) | 0.13 | Manifold |
Military applications of neutrinos by 2050? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will the United States Air Force integrate an autonomous, AI-controlled fighter jet, like Lockheed's VISTA X-62, into their active service fleet by 2040? | 0.7 | Manifold |
By the year 2040, will the US military integrate a bipedal humanoid robot, similar to Boston Dynamics' Atlas, into its arsenal? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Genetic hair treatments before 2040 | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will AI "love bots/virtual girlfriends" be good enough to reduce the % of "unwarranted male attention" by 50% by 2027? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Before 2028, will there be a major REFLECTIVELY self-improving AI policy*? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Before 2028, will there be a major self-improving AI policy*? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will consumer electricity be too cheap to meter by 2100? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will electricity be too cheap to meter by 2100? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will electricity be too cheap to meter by 2050? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will consumer electricity be too cheap to meter by 2050? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will hallucinations (made up facts) created by LLMs go below 1% on specific corpora before 2025? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will a new episode of Doctor Who written by Steven Moffat air before 2025? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will there be any more lockdowns due to COVID-19 in New Zealand before 2025? | 0.14 | Manifold |
In 2050, we still won't be able to exactly duplicate a strawberry. | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will there be any more lockdowns due to COVID-19 in the UK before 2025? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will there be any more lockdowns due to COVID-19 in the US before 2025? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Ecuador qualify for the 2026 World Cup? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Lionel Messi play in the 2026 World Cup? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Atomic Semi sell something substantial before 2028? | 0.6 | Manifold |
2024 IA GOP Caucuses: Ramaswamy’s % of popular vote. | 0.06 | Manifold |
By 2030, will demand for cow products have fallen by 70%? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Amazon accept any cryptocurrency in any country before 2030? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will there be a new country before 2028? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will Italy remove the ban on nuclear power by 2028 ? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will Australia remove the ban on nuclear power by 2028 ? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will Japan or South Korea develop a domestic nuclear deterrent before 2050? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will language models or similar natural language processing technologies, such as ChatGPT, be integrated into dialogue trees for NPCs in triple-A games by the end of 2024 | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will more than $1B worth of sexy fembots be sold worldwide in 2040? | 0.77 | Manifold |
FDA legalizes magic mushrooms/psilocybin/etc. for clinical use by 2025 | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will any company of at least 100 employees be using Manifold to make important decisions by the end of 2024? | 0.35 | Manifold |
What would be the highest bid I received for 30000Mana before April 2023? | 0.05 | Manifold |
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