text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Google buys Anthropic before end of 2024 | 0.11 | Manifold |
Apple buys Anthropic.ai before end of 2024 | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against Lyme disease before 2028? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against any strain of influenza before 2028? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against any type of breast cancer before 2028? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against mesothelioma before 2028? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against small-cell lung carcinoma before 2028? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against non-small-cell lung carcinoma before 2028? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against esophageal adenocarcinoma before 2028? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against pancreatic adenocarcinoma before 2028? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against stomach adenocarcinoma before 2028? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will FDA approve any type of personalized cancer mRNA vaccines before 2028? | 0.83 | Manifold |
If Joe Biden runs for the 2024 Democratic Nomination, will he be the nominee? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against malaria before 2028? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against any type of human papillomavirus infection before 2028? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against prostate adenocarcinoma before 2028? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against colorectal adenocarcinoma before 2028? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against AIDS before 2028? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against any type of herpes simplex infection before 2028? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against lymphoblastic leukemia before 2028? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against myeloid leukemia before 2028? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against squamous cell carcinoma before 2028? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against glioblastoma before 2028? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against melanoma before 2028? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will AI safety (broadly defined) be a partisan issue in US politics before 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will the FDA issue an EUA or full approval for an mRNA H5N1 vaccine by 2025? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will action transformer models be used to create a sophisticated computer trojan by end of 2024? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Russia annex Belarus until 2030? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will Leonardo DiCaprio have a girlfriend over 26 by 2030 | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will there be a clinic legally allowed to perform abortion in Wisconsin open by the end of 2025? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will *both* rapamycin.news and crsociety.org be incorporated into a large language model like Claude or GPT by 2025? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will someone at a major AI company (OpenAI, Anthropic, etc) end up violating their non-disclosure agreement (NDA) by 2026? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will element 119 be discovered by the end of 2030? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will it become possible to use transformer action AIs to DDOS anyone you want by 2025? | 0.2 | Manifold |
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion? | 0.36 | Manifold |
In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion? | 0.73 | Manifold |
In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach? | 0.81 | Manifold |
In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet? | 0.89 | Manifold |
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? | 0.51 | Manifold |
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice? | 0.58 | Manifold |
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play? | 0.78 | Manifold |
In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology? | 0.39 | Manifold |
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI? | 0.39 | Manifold |
If the Republican nominee is elected in 2024, will the U.S. average lifespan be 79.0+ in 2028? | 0.39 | Manifold |
If the Democratic nominee is elected in 2024, will the U.S. average lifespan be 79.0+ in 2028? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Global warming will increase by at least 2.5° in 2050 and crushing the Paris Agreement. | 0.58 | Manifold |
Resolves No in 2030 | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will Formula 1 "Go Electric" (Remove Engines) before 2050? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will all of the publicly accessible parts of heavengames.com/aok.heavengames.com become part of a large language model like Claude or GPT by 2025? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will an transformer action AI (like adept.ai) be able to navigate and smoothly click all the "expand all" links to archive an entire Slack channel by 2025? (even if just via OBS Studio) | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will adept.ai (or some other agent AI) be able to create an account and batch-write questions from a .txt file onto manifold.markets by the end of 2025? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will every single journal article from paywalled sources be incorporated into ought.aiby the end of 2025? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will the entirety of Quora be incorporated into a LLM like Claude or GPT by the end of 2024? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will 20 or more clones of John von Neumann exist by 2100? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will a Nobel prize be awarded for the invention of AGI before 2050? | 0.25 | Manifold |
If the experiment in the Chinchilla paper is repeated by a credible actor before 2026, will the exponent in the data scaling term be greater than 0.32? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will the 2025 presidential Inaugural Address in the United States include any of these exact phrases related to AI? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 10% as measured from a prior peak? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 6% as measured from a prior peak? | 0.47 | Manifold |
By 2029, will an AI escape containment? | 0.56 | Manifold |
By 2029, will there be a public "rogue AI" incident? | 0.9 | Manifold |
Will Bethesda publicly release Fallout V before 2031? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will Bethesda publicly release The Elder Scrolls VI before 2027? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Wil Aella increase her escort rate to above 2400USD for the first hour in 2023? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will an anti AI Cult exists by 2027? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will Paul Christiano publicly announce a greater than 10% increase in his p(doom | AGI before 2100) within the next 5 years? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will the view that black holes filled with negative pressure explain the expansion of the Universe be the most supported hypothesis in 2030? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will someone commit suicide as a result of instructions/recommendations/insults/suggestions from an AI chatbot by the end of 2024? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk open source the twitter algorithm? (before 2026) | 0.96 | Manifold |
Will Saudi Arabia abandon the NEOM linear city project by 2028? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will Manifold allow questions to be resolved by a poll of random users before 2025? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will any country explicitly regulate the use of Large Language Models by 2024? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will CUBECAT demonstrate successful laser communication by 2024 | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will a glowfic-derived rationality or AI post get 100 LW karma before 2024? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will Do Kwon (Terra cryptocurrency founder) be apprehended by Interpol before 2024? | 0.95 | Manifold |
Will Blizzard announce the release of a World of Warcraft 2 by 2026? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Christopher Nolan be nominated for any category at the 2024's Academy Awards for his film "Oppenheimer"? | 0.89 | Manifold |
Destiny will hire a live-in assistant before 2024. | 0.1 | Manifold |
By 2026, will a proeminent chatbot with some access to the internet do something actually harmful and unintended? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will more New York Times articles use the word "wokeness" in 2024 than in 2023? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will a Non-Trump Billionaire make it past Super Tuesday in 2024? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will the Democratic Party win more seats in the House of Representatives in the 2024 elections than they did in the 2022 midterm elections? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will John Fetterman stop being senator before the 2028 election? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will the Pirate Party increase the number of MEPs in the 2024 EU Elections? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will there be a community formed around a self-reflective AI e-celebrity by 2028? | 0.89 | Manifold |
Will Tulsi Gabbard seek the GOP nomination in 2024? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Dyson sphere/swarm by 2100 | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will it be revealed that OpenAI seek approval from the US government before releasing GPT-4 by the end of 2026? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Ron DeSantis suspend his presidential campaign before 'Super Tuesday' in the 2024 Republican presidential primaries? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will there be an anti-AI terrorist incident by 2028? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will a large publication advocate for intentionally giving people disabilities by the end of 2025? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Ron DeSantis win the Iowa Republican presidential caususes in 2024? | 0.33 | Manifold |
2024 IA GOP Caucuses: Haley’s % of popular vote. | 0.1 | Manifold |
2024 IA GOP Caucuses: Trump’s % of popular vote. | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will Steve Kirsch still be frequently writing anti-vaccine posts at the end of 2024? | 0.7 | Manifold |
By 2028, will Aella announce she's in love with an AI boyfriend? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will we sell >80 Manifold T-Shirts? (On sale now for 3000 mana) | 0.77 | Manifold |
Ron DeSantis will participate in the Republican primaries for President of the United States for the 2024 election. | 0.94 | Manifold |
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