text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Vibes-based market "In 2025 New Hampshire will be significantly better off as a result of libertarian changes" | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will any of Donald Trump's children or their spouses be a witness against him in a criminal trial by the end of 2024? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine have partial control over Crimea by the end of 2026? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine have full control over Crimea by the end of 2026? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will Bing's chat model get shut down before 2024? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will there be a speed limit in Germany before 2030? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will Leonardo Dicaprio have at least one girlfriend under 20 by 2030? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will a non-Chromium based web browser be the most popular browser by the end of 2025? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will Korean reunification be complete by 2045? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will the for-profit branch of Cavendish Labs IPO before 2026? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Havan IPO until 2030? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will there be a Moldovan-Romanian union by the end of 2024? | 0.11 | Manifold |
At the end of 2028, how many times the price of a basic plumbing job will it cost to develop a simple iPhone app? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will Manifold natively facilitate micro-payments from market creators to users that trade on their markets by end of 2024? | 0.16 | Manifold |
What will the price of Bitcoin in US dollars be at the end of 2030? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Manifold's employee count be higher than Kalshi's at the end of 2027? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will Manifold's post-money valuation be higher than Kalshi's at the end of 2027? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will Magnus Carlsen be dethroned as World Chess Champion before 2026? | 0.92 | Manifold |
Will Vivek Ramaswamy become the Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Vivek Ramaswamy become president of the United States in 2025? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Mini be cited in an academic journal by 2025? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will another organization surpass OpenAI in the public sphere of awareness of AI progress by the end of 2024? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will Ron DeSantis win the Florida Primary in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will Poland’s Monetary Policy Council increase the reference interest rate before 2024? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump win the Florida Primary in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries? | 0.4 | Manifold |
By 2028, will Eliezer Yudkowsky announce he's in love with an AI girlfriend? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Conditional on AGI being available by 2045, will Eliezer Yudkowsky be declared enemy #1 by the AI during the first 60 days? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Singapore's 2024 birth rate, as a percentage of Hong Kong's 2024 birth rate, increase by at least 3% versus the same comparison in 2023? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will the birth rate in Singapore be at least 3% higher in 2024 than in 2023? | 0.76 | Manifold |
What will be the total number of electric vehicles sold globally in 2025? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Quantum Telescopes by 2030? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will Republicans and Democrats (USA) both run one cis male and one cis female as either President or VP in 2024? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will animal free dairy products have >5% market share by 2028? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Moldova control Transnistria by the end of 2024? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will Ron Desantis be the GOP vice presidential candidate in 2024? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Nikki Haley be the Republican vice presidential candidate in 2024? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will the words UFO or UAP be said in the debates for the 2024 US presidential election? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will people hold the works of J.K. Rowling in high regard in 2053? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will John Bolton announce he is seeking the GOP nomination for president in 2024 by the end of May? | 0 | Manifold |
Will anyone in the United States be killed by an individually-targeted, AI-guided, kamikaze aerial drone by the end of 2024? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will a civilian be killed by an individually-targeted, AI-guided, kamikaze aerial drone by the end of 2024? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Xi Jinping be still be the President of China or CCP Chairman by 2025? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will Nikki Haley win any state in the 2024 GOP primaries? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will Nikki Haley finish in the top three in the 2024 Iowa caucuses? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will someone other than Joe Biden win at least one state in the 2024 Democratic Primary? | 0.25 | Manifold |
What will be the traffic mobile data traffic in Europe in 2030? (in GB/mo per user) | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will Pedro Pascal take on another role as a guarded father figure protecting a child before 2030? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Trump will lose weight, get federally indicted, win the 2024 GOP nomination, drop out, and receive a pardon from a Democratic president | 0.04 | Manifold |
Saudi Arabia will agree to price major oil sales to China in yuan before 2024 | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will any real money prediction market let you bet using indices rather than fiat/crypto by 2025? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will Germanys electricity be 80% renewable by the end of 2030? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will it be possible to obtain FDA approval for a drug based on protein folding stimulations without human clinical trials by 2035? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Tim Scott be the Republican Nominee for President in 2024? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will there be an AI-powered trader on Manifold in the top 20 profit leaderboard by end of 2026? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will the two teams playing in Super Bowl LVIII 2024 be teams that made the playoffs in 2023? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will the Magic Arena card pool contain Panglacial Wurm before 2026? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will NYT write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Vox write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will one of Biden, Trump, or DeSantis win the 2024 Presidential Race? | 0.91 | Manifold |
By the end of 2025, will players at Magic: The Gathering tournaments be allowed to use Manifold to bet on them? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully restored by end of 2100? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully restored by end of 2075? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully restored by end of 2050? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will NYT write an article about a scandal at 80,000 hours before end of 2026? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Vox write an article about a scandal at 80,000 hours before end of 2026? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026? | 0.89 | Manifold |
Will more than ten "national level" politicians in any single western country be killed within twelve months of each other before 2030? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will any of the following Western countries attempt to annex another country before 2030? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will any single terrorist attack in a Western nation kill more than 20,000 people before 2030? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will recreational cannabis be legalized at the federal level in Australia before 2025? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will more than 1% of young men ages 25-35 in any of the following Western countries die during a single calendar year before 2030? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Meta AI start an AGI alignment team before 2026? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will any of my current or future "WEIRD doomsday" markets resolve to YES by 2030? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will any of the following western countries go to war with each other before 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Democrats win the 2024 presidential election if neither Biden nor Trump are the nominees? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will Democrats win the 2024 presidential election if neither Biden nor Trump are the nominees? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Immigration reform by 2032? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will Fairtrade Weed be available anywhere by 2030? | 0.58 | Manifold |
How many of these jobs will have a 15% or more drop in employment plausibly attributable to AI by 2031? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will Google's Bard allow search in personal mail/docs before 2025? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will Democrats win 2024 presidential election *if Biden is not the nominee*? | 0.42 | Manifold |
How much will the EU spend on military as a ‰ of its GDP during 2025? [Log Version] | 0.48 | Manifold |
How much will the EU spend on military as a ‰ of its GDP during 2025? | 0.03 | Manifold |
How much will the EU spend on military as a ‰ of its GDP during 2025? | 0.5 | Manifold |
A "network state" will be recognized by the UN by 2040. | 0.1 | Manifold |
Most of my close friends will own and regularly use a VR headset by 2030. | 0.55 | Manifold |
A "network city" will form with over 50,000 members in roughly, one location with a governance system run over a blockchain by 2030. | 0.21 | Manifold |
Total cryptocurrency market cap will be above $30 trillion before 2030. | 0.12 | Manifold |
A DAO has a market cap equivalent to average Fortune 500 company by 2030. | 0.41 | Manifold |
Peter Thiel or a candidate who has previously worked for Thiel wins Republican nomination for President before 2033. | 0.21 | Manifold |
By 2040, there will be a growth boom in a developing country fueled by uncollateralized cryptocurrency loans. | 0.26 | Manifold |
My friend, a 5th-year economics PhD student, will work for cryptocurrency-related start-up before 2025. | 0.42 | Manifold |
Pete Buttigieg will be the Democratic nominee for President in 2028. | 0.33 | Manifold |
My friend, a Yale Economics PhD in his 4th year, will be in academia in 2029. | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will piracy make a comeback by Dec 2025? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will Valve release a successor to the Steam Deck before the end of 2024? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will AI girlfriends be available by 2026? | 0.99 | Manifold |
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