text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
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|---|---|---|
Will anyone on Twitter make a credible claim that I am arguing for something in bad faith by the end of 2025? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2028 elections? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will Brian Kemp seek the GOP nomination for president in 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2024 elections? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will BCG overtake McKinsey by the end of 2024 as the largest of the three (MBB) Top Management Consultancies? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will Open AI's est. market cap be >$50B by 2030? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will human brains be weaker than AI in every way by the end of 2028? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will NASA land a person on the Moon before 2026? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Instant deepfakes of anyone before 2028? | 0.93 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will Bitcoin become Proof of Stake before the end of 2025? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will the US allow phone calls during domestic flights by the end of 2024? | 0.1 | Manifold |
By the end of 2024 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will there be a Forward-Forward Algorithm based neural network with >65% Top 1 Accuracy on Papers With Code's ImageNet leaderboard by 2024? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will Kanye West go to jail before 2025? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will we discover evidence of a magnetic monopole before 2050? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will we discover evidence of a cosmic string before 2050? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will destiny kill someone by the end of 2024 | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will we discover a fifth fundamental force before 2050? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will NASA land a person on the Moon before 2025? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will SBF be dead before the end of 2025? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will SBF be dead before the end of 2024? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2030? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2027? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2024? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2025? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will an AI win Advent of Code? (2025) | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will Justin Sun (founder of Tron) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will Gregg Berhalter be coach of the US Men's National Soccer Team for the 2026 World Cup? | 0.91 | Manifold |
Will Matt Levine link to Manifold by 2024? | 0.57 | Manifold |
AUTOMATION: Less than 100 police officers are employed by the New York Police Department by the end of 2026 | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will Angela Davis Feature in another Documentary about Incarceration by 2024? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will an open convert from Catholicism to Protestantism be elected as a Democrat to the US House, Senate or as a Governor on or before the 2024 general election? | 0.38 | Manifold |
By the end of 2025 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Eliezer Yudkowsky calls me “promising” before the end of 2026 | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will a sequel to "Fallout: New Vegas" be announced by the end of 2026? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will an AI-authored short story be published in a major science fiction magazine by 2024? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will an AI-authored story win a short story contest by 2024? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026 | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will DeSantis announce a running mate by June 2024? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will we have a superhuman mathematician by the beginning of 2026 (as defined here: https://twitter.com/ChrSzegedy/status/1598341927828594688)? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Ethereum remains above $500 until 2025-12-04? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will Nishad Singh (director of engineering at FTX) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.98 | Manifold |
Will Scott Alexander (Scott Siskind, psychiatrist and writer) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will CEA announce insolvency before the end 2025? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will the S&P 500 close above 4000 at the end of 2023? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Pink Tide: Will leftists still govern a majority of Latin American countries at the end of 2026? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will Youtube implement higher frame rates before 2025? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI release a search engine before 2024? [Read description] | 0.64 | Manifold |
By the start of 2026, will the Clay Mathematics Institute award its monetary prize for the solution of another Millennium Prize Problem? | 0.23 | Manifold |
60% of effective altruists will live outside of the US or UK by 2024 (in 2019 45% lived outside the US and UK) | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will the Democratic candidate win the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will Peter be vegetarian before the beginning of 2025? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will a ChatGPT clone be open-sourced by 2025? | 0.91 | Manifold |
Will an AI system beat human performance in Trackmania Tool-Assisted Speedrunning by the end of 2025? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will Larry Hogan seek the GOP nomination in 2024? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will open-source AI win? (through 2028) | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will an AI-created movie have a rating >=7.0 on IMDB by 2028? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will an AI-created movie have a rating >=7.0 on IMDB by 2030? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will any US President be removed from office via impeachment and conviction before 2100? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026 | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will the "Leftovers" Podcast by Ethan Klein and Hasanabi end or take an indefinite break before 2024? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will Johnny Lyu (CEO of KuCoin) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.33 | Manifold |
By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will Lyra Health IPO by 2025? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will AI create utopia for humans by the year 2100? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Ron DeSantis be accused of sexual assault before the 2024 Election? | 0.28 | Manifold |
By the start of 2033, will there be consensus that there is life on Jupiter's moon, Europa, that was not brought there by humans? | 0.08 | Manifold |
By the end of 2026, John Wentworth still believes that "The Plan" has a better than 50/50 chance of working before the singularity. | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will Charles Hoskinson (co-founder of Cardano and Ethereum) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Jesse Powell (co-founder of Kraken exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
A US federal judge will be impeached by end of 2025 | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk have a brain-computer interface installed on himself for non-health reasons by the end of 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Justin Trudeau stop being Canada's Prime Minister by the conclusion of the next federal election (20 Oct 2025 or earlier)? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will it be confirmed that Kristen @Kirsten3531 is involved with the Qualy the Lightbulb account if I guess so? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Twitter accept Bitcoin (BTC) as a method of payment by the end of 2024? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will a Neuralink device be implanted in a human brain by the end of 2024? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will Kamala Harris be sworn in as President of the United States before 11/05/2024? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Sam Bankman-Fried in prison by 2030 | 0.82 | Manifold |
Will Bitcoin switch to Proof of Stake before 2030? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Bitcoin switch to Proof of Stake before 2030? | 0.19 | Manifold |
If go is solved by 2040, what will a fair komi be for white? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will an AI become TIME's Person of The Year by 2025? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will go be solved before 2040? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Metaculus announce they intend to shut down before 2025? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will involuntary servitude be illegal in the USA (including prisons) for all of 2024 | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will involuntary servitude be illegal in the USA (including prisons) for all of 2024 | 0.04 | Manifold |
Effective Altruist organization commits serious human rights abuses "for the greater good" before 2035 | 0.18 | Manifold |
"Shangri-La diet" theory becomes widely accepted by scientists before 2030. | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Manifold announce they intend to shut down before 2025? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will open-source AI win (through 2025)? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will Antoni Trenchev (co-founder of Nexo exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will Bitcoin experience a successful 51% attack by 2032-11-29? | 0.03 | Manifold |
I feel strongly that I have been "canceled" at least once by the end of 2026. | 0.1 | Manifold |
From now, will Google lay off more than 8000 workers before the end of 2023? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will the S&P 500 index stays above 3300 until EOY 2022? | 1 | Manifold |
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