text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will AI reach human-level performance in Magic: The Gathering before 2024? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will any AI be able to explain formal language proofs to >=50% of IMO problems by the start of 2025? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will any AI be able to formalize >=90% of IMO problems by the start of 2025? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will Vitalik Buterin (co-founder and inventor of Ethereum) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will NYT publish an article mentioning Manifold before 2024? | 0.91 | Manifold |
Will high-school or college students in 2040 be able to tell time on an analog clock? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will there be any significant technological developments after 2100? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will Peter thiel be charged with a felony by 2026. | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Ken Griffin be caught in a national scandal by 2026 | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Manifold reach 8000 monthly active users by the end of the year? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Mr. Beast self-identify as an effective altruist by end of 2030? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will monkeypox appear to be a seasonal illness, with more occurrence in summer than winter, by the end of 2024? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will NATO nukes be stationed in Finland before 2025 | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will AI beat the best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2024? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Gavin Newsom run for president in 2028? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will the live-action remake of Your Name be released on or before 1 July 2025? | 0.3 | Manifold |
If AOC runs for president in 2024, will she be the democratic nominee? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Nintendo release an open world Legend of Zelda-related game made specifically for VR by the end of 2030? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Brian Armstrong (founder of Coinbase exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Dr P return to Manifold before the end of 2024? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will it be cheap and easy and permanently remove hair by the beginning of 2028? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will the US Congressional Budget Office open source their individual income tax calculator by 2024? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will an AI be able to convert recent mathematical results into a fully formal proofs that can be verified by a mainstream proof assistant by 2025? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will an inconsistency in the Calculus of Inductive Constructions be found before 2050? | 0.04 | Manifold |
By 2040, will the majority of the US population be taking medication prescribed for mental health. | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will an inconsistency in ZFC be found before 2050? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will a protest in China exceed 100,000 people before 2024? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Eliezer Yudkowsky is found to have performed prediction market fraud by the end of 2025 | 0.07 | Manifold |
Conditional on not having died from unaligned AGI, I consider myself a full time alignment researcher by the end of 2030 | 0.39 | Manifold |
If Vladimir Putin is not in power in Russia, what will Russia's democracy index be in 2026, as per the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy report? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Tumblr support following from ActivityPub accounts by EoY 2025 | 0.73 | Manifold |
Conditional on Tumblr implementing support for following from ActivityPub, will they inject ads into the feed by EoY 2025? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will Tumblr support following from ActivityPub accounts by EoY 2025 | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Tumblr support following external ActivityPub accounts by EoY 2025 | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will we have a proof of the Riemann Hypothesis by 2060? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will we have a formalized proof of Fermat's last theorem by 2049-05-01? | 0.89 | Manifold |
Will a protest in China exceed 10,000 people before 2024? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will >5% of an FTX-implicated political donation be clawed back, from >2 politicians or political campaigns, by end of 2026? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will the Republican 2024 Senate margin in Florida be higher than in Texas? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will aesop be able to replace >50% of mathlib proofs by 2025-11-26? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will the Twitter Turing Test be passed by 2030? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will the Twitter Turing Test be passed by 2028? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will the Twitter Turing Test be passed by 2025? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will a Cannabis Store be Opened in Germany before the 31st of December 2024? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will a Cannabis Store be Opened in Germany before the 31st of December 2024? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will a new Age of Empires III civilisation be released by 2024? | 0.11 | Manifold |
What will Russia's democracy index be in 2026, as per the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy report? | 0.29 | Manifold |
By the start of 2033, will at least a billion people be alive? | 0.91 | Manifold |
Will a new Age of Empires II civilisation be released by 2024? | 1 | Manifold |
Will an AI have >10 million Twitter followers by 2025? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will an AI have >1 million Twitter followers by 2025? | 0.86 | Manifold |
By the beginning of 2035, will physicists and philosophers mostly agree on the correct interpretation of quantum mechanics? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Mike Pence run for President in 2024? | 1 | Manifold |
Will the USA men’s soccer team win the World Cup before the year 2071? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will the Democrats keep the Iowa Caucuses as the first state primary in the upcoming 2024 presidential election? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will the Democrats make South Carolina the first state primary in the upcoming 2024 presidential election? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will the Democrats make Nevada the first state primary in the upcoming 2024 presidential election? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will Mastodon have more Monthly Active Users than Twitter in 2030? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will Changpeng Zhao ("CZ", cofounder of Binance exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will Destiny and Kanye (Ye) talk in person on or off stream before 2024? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Manifold have a >6h outage by 2024? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will we be able to solve all NP problems in polynomial time by 2200? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Civilian nuclear accident in the US before 2030 | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will a socialist or communist revolution happen in a NATO country by 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Apple purchase Manchester United by 2024 | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will any company sell >$1B of humanoid robots before 2030? | 0.57 | Manifold |
By 2030, will 50% of voters identify as longtermists? | 0.03 | Manifold |
By 2030, will 20% of voters identify as longtermists? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will there be a dgg cryptocurrency before 2024? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Microsoft releases a linux distro by 2025 | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will Stripe IPO by 2024? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Apple adopts RCS in iOS Messages app by 2024 | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will seribantumab receive FDA approval by the end of May 2024? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will both of my kids have absolute pitch by 2024? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will you send me a link to a xenharmonic/microtonal track listed in Billboard Hot 10 before 2024? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will AI for Diplomacy be mildly superhuman by 2024? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will GiveWell's recommendations age poorly, by 2026? | 0.35 | Manifold |
By 2050, will there be a cure to aging? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will estradiol be available over-the-counter in the US before 2030? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will US obesity be half or less of the current rate in 2050? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will semaglutide (or an alternative) cost less than $100/month (inflation-adjusted) without insurance in 2040? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will semaglutide (or an alternative) cost less than $100/month (inflation-adjusted) without insurance in 2030? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will medicare cover semaglutide (or an alternative) in 2030? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will 10 million Americans be on semaglutide (or yet-to-be-approved equally good or superior alternatives) by the end of 2030? | 0.65 | Manifold |
By the start of 2026, will at least 1000 people have been permanently cured of HIV? | 0.44 | Manifold |
By the start of 2026, will at least 100 people have been permanently cured of HIV? | 0.58 | Manifold |
By the start of 2026, will at least 10 people have been permanently cured of HIV? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will Wikipedia's 'Current events' include the Russian invasion of Ukraine as an ongoing event on 2024-01-01? | 0.88 | Manifold |
Will Wikipedia's 'Current events' include the COVID-19 pandemic as an ongoing event on 2024-01-01? | 0.05 | Manifold |
I am still in my current relationship by 2025. | 0.53 | Manifold |
I make a contribution to AI safety that is endorsed by at least one high profile AI alignment researcher by the end of 2026 | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will there be a robust fourth party movement in America that impacts the 2024 Presidential race? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will estradiol be available over-the-counter in the US before 2025? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will @arctanno take some form of PED (steroids/etc) by 2025 | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump and Ronald DeSantis join forces to run on the Republican joint-ticket for the 2024 United States presidential election? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will there be a televised match between a robot and a top-10 human tennis player by 2035? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will asteriskmag.com still be alive by the end of 2024? | 0.86 | Manifold |
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