text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will there be a trillionare by the end of 2028? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will an AI capable of playing Kerbal Space Program (1 or 2) at a proficient human level exist by the end of 2028? | 0.72 | Manifold |
By end of 2030, will any US company be worth $10 trillion, in inflation adjusted 2022 dollars? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin be the Republican Party nominee for President in 2024 in the general election. | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will SBF Get Indicted with a Felony Crime by 11:59pm May 23, 2024 | 0.94 | Manifold |
Will there be a picture/video of Destiny eating a hot dog taken before 2024? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will Salt Lake City, USA win the bid for hosting the 2030 Winter Olympics? | 0.52 | Manifold |
By 2030, will any US company be more valuable than the (other) top 5 tech companies combined? | 0.11 | Manifold |
By the start of 2026, will the number of planets in the Solar System, as per the International Astronomical Union, be exactly 8? | 0.89 | Manifold |
By the start of 2026, will any human being (save for the 12 Apollo astronauts who walked on the Moon) have walked on the surface of any celestial body other than Earth? | 0.09 | Manifold |
By 2030 will there be a well accepted theory of the causes of Alzheimer's? | 0.3 | Manifold |
By the start of 2026, will a country named Russia be a member of the UN? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will you be able to buy Cannabis legally in Germany before 2026? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk publicly mention Manifold before 2024? | 0.48 | Manifold |
How many minutes for the fastest Hollow Knight: Silksong any% no major glitches speedrun at the end of 2024? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will AI for Diplomacy be strongly superhuman by 2024? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will Faithful Beth (Sen. Chuck Grassley's vacuum cleaner) remain faithful through 2024? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will Vermont be the most Democratic state in the 2024 Presidential election? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will Destiny get diagnosed with ADHD before 2024? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will Destiny get diagnosed with autism before 2024? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will the average California gas price exceed $8 by 2025? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will Google create a folding smartphone by 2025? | 1 | Manifold |
Will the US have a president that's less than 50 years old by the end of 2029? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will anyone do significant harm to another person in order to manipulate a market on Manifold by the end of 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will Anthony Joshua fight Tyson Fury by 2024? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will Alexei Navalny be alive and out of custody by the start of 2026? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will Alexei Navalny be alive and out of custody by the start of 2025? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Ron DeSantis appear on The Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the 2024 US elections? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will the problem of heuristic arguments still be an open problem by 2026? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will Biden drop out of the 2024 presidential election before 11/5/2024? | 0.14 | Manifold |
If the Democratic party runs open primaries for the 2024 presidential election, will Biden take part in them? | 0.91 | Manifold |
Will metal currency be obsolete by 2040 in the US? | 0.5 | Manifold |
At the beginning of 2030, what percentage of Manifold users will have a strongly negative opinion of Scott Alexander? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Scott Alexander do anything before 2030 that I personally would consider highly unethical? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will the United States of America be composed of exactly 50 states by 2030? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will Scott Alexander be convicted of a felony in any country before 2030? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Scott Alexander be convicted of a felony in the United States before 2030? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will 30% of video game players be using a VR headset of some sort to play video games by 2030? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will EA renounce utilitarianism as a guiding principle by the end of 2030? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will AirBnB make an acquisition in the physical hotel space before 2026? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk be Twitter's CEO through 2025? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Trump reach 100M twitter followers by 2025? | 0.54 | Manifold |
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk run in the 2036 Presidential Election. | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk run in the 2032 Presidential Election | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk run in the 2028 Presidential Election? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk run in the 2024 Presidential Election? | 0.04 | Manifold |
By 2040, will Nathan Young (twitter handle @NathanpmYoung) become Prime Minister? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030 | 0.16 | Manifold |
What is the chance that Coinbase goes bankrupt OR loses at least 10% of their customer assets (e.g., some of the crypto on the platform gets stolen) before Nov 20, 2024? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky run for President of the United States by 2060? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will any human-created object reach 1% of light speed before 2033? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will Substack publications have at least 5 million paid subscribers by 2025? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will there be a lunar base by the end of 2029? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will alien life be discovered by end of 2025? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Jeff Bezos return to Amazon as CEO by 2024? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will twitter file for bankruptcy before 2024? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk attempt to sell Twitter before 2025? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk attempt to sell Twitter before 2024? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Apple acquire TSMC by 2025? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will London leave the UK by 2040? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will AI take over the world and keep humans as pets before the year 2100 | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will Florida lose over 25% of it's land surface area to sea level rise by the end of 2075? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Donald Trump will be banned from twitter by 2/14/2024 | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Trump reach 100M twitter followers by 2029? | 0.68 | Manifold |
By 2030, will there be a cure to aging? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will this systematic review (academic summary of scientific papers) on trends of male sperm count receive 10 citations by 2024? | 0.88 | Manifold |
Will NYC become the new tech capital of the United States by 2030? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Conditional on Twitter being forced to perform a cold boot before 2024, will they succeed by 2024Q2? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will Twitter be forced to perform a cold boot before 2024? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will Russia declare a general mobilization before 2024? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Assault weapons ban before 2025 | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Destiny and Sam Seder talk again before 2024? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will Destiny talk to Ethan Klein publicly before 2024? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will Austin Chen (Manifold cofounder) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Lav be arrested before 2024? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Destiny (The Streamer) play Destiny (The Game) by 2024? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will an effective cure for Keratoconus exist by 2040 | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will Vitalik Buterin be found guilty of fraud before 2028? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will anyone have their mind read without their prior consent before 2030? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will mind-reading be used in a US court of law before 2030? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk endorse Donald Trump for 2024 presidency? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will GiveWell win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2040? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will MTG Arena become the canonical source of rules functionality by the end of 2026? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Tesla report automotive gross profit margins lower than 19.5% in any fiscal year by 2028? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will Microstrategy sell any Bitcoin? (By 2028) | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Microstrategy sell any Bitcoin? (By 2026) | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will Microstrategy sell any Bitcoin? (By 2024) | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will chess be solved by 2100? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will Meta's metaverse have ≥100 million monthly active users on Dec 31, 2033? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will a new Doctor Who spinoff be announced in 2024? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will Destiny beat Elden Ring with 10 vigor before 2030? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will India surpass China in terms of GDP before 2050? | 0.27 | Manifold |
SHA256 collision by 2032-06-18? | 0.19 | Manifold |
By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Alibaba $baba $5k by 2025 | 0.21 | Manifold |
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