text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
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|---|---|---|
By 2030, will the FDA approve any drug in combination with a checkpoint blockade therapy that substantially reduces immune escape? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will a market on Manifold be used as evidence in any legal proceeding by the end of 2024? | 0.15 | Manifold |
By the end of 2029, will people in any US state have full control over what happens to their body after they die? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will suicide become allowed in any US state by the end of 2029? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Darius start taking estrogen before 2024? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Rick Scott run for the GOP nomination in 2024? | 0.21 | Manifold |
At the beginning of 2040, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075? | 0.63 | Manifold |
At the beginning of 2035, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075? | 0.73 | Manifold |
At the beginning of 2030, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075? | 0.73 | Manifold |
At the beginning of 2029, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075? | 0.77 | Manifold |
At the beginning of 2028, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075? | 0.72 | Manifold |
At the beginning of 2027, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075? | 0.73 | Manifold |
At the beginning of 2026, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075? | 0.73 | Manifold |
At the beginning of 2025, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075? | 0.75 | Manifold |
At the beginning of 2024, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will Liz Cheney be the second Republican to declare their candidacy for president in 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Manifold cease allowing mana withdrawals for any length of time before 2028? | 0.88 | Manifold |
Will there be a bank run on Manifold before 2028? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will Geraldo Alckmin be the President of Brazil by Dec 31st 2025? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will an AI-generated paper be accepted into Nature by 2025? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will total market cap of cryptocurrency fall below 500 billion $ before 2024? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Bitcoin at >500 Exahash per second on 2025-11-17? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will one company of Cult Food Science's portfolio have a yearly revenue of >100M before 2025? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will SBF have an estimated net worth >= $1B in 2030? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Sen. Dianne Feinstein run for reelection in 2024? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Richard Heart (Richard James Schueler) be charged of any felony crime before 2030? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Predict Metaculus: Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024? | 0.41 | Manifold |
By the end of 2024, will at least 2 MIRI researchers publicly consider the Infra-Bayesianism agenda to have contributed substantially to solving the alignment problem? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will Lex Fridman interview SBF by 2024? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will SBF go on Joe Rogan by 2024? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026? | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will Sneako vote for Donald Trump in 2024? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will Trump be legally barred from running for US President in 2024 before voting in any one Republican primary or in any one state's caucuses is completed? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will SF homelessness rates be higher in 2030 than in 2022 | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will SF homelessness rates be higher in 2025 than in 2022 | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will Trump move on to a new DeSantis nickname before the 2024 election? | 0.96 | Manifold |
Any country invokes article 5 of NATO before 2025 | 0.13 | Manifold |
What do you predict Sam Bankman-Fried's net worth will be on Nov 16, 2025? (i.e., ~3 years from the FTX crises) | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will u/MisterYouAreSoDumb's prediction about bitcoin hold up in 2024? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Manifold use a collaborative resolution algorithm before 2025? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will Manifold organize a hackathon before 2024? | 0.97 | Manifold |
Will the Galactica model receive acknowledgement in a paper published before 2024? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will there be public knowledge of a major IT-Security incident at a well-known EA org before 2024? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Twitter be an open distributed system before 2026? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Keffals publicly retract past statements she's made about Destiny? [By 2025] | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will at least half of the inverse scaling prize second round winners demonstrate U-shaped scaling by 2025? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will FiveThirtyEight publish a 2024 Democratic primaries forecast? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will FiveThirtyEight publish a 2024 Republican primaries forecast? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will at least 3/4 of the inverse scaling first round winners demonstrate U-shaped scaling by 2024? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will Ye West (Kanye West) be charged of any felony crime before 2030? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will Tesla's Dojo AI computer be available for public use before the end of 2025? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will systemic poverty be eliminated before 2050? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Manifold liquidity shortage by 2026? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will Destiny Run for Office Before 2030? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Before 2050, will it become safe and easy to change one's apparent sex at will? | 0.29 | Manifold |
By the end of 2035, will it be possible for a person who was born biologically male to get pregnant and have children normally? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will it be possible for a person who was born biologically male to get pregnant and have healthy children by the end of 2035? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will the US have a gender non-conforming president by 2033? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will the US have a female or gender non-conforming president by 2033? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will Paul Christiano's "Where I agree and disagree with Eliezer" post still be the most upvoted post on LessWrong at the beginning of 2025? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will there be a lunar particle accelerator by the beginning of 2050? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will there be 100 people in space at the same time before 2030? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Red-Hair Shanks die before 2024? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will party control of US House of Representatives change prematurely before 2025 inauguration? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump be found guilty of sexual assault by 2030? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will someone pay their rent using Mana before 2026? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will SBF join Manifold by the end of 2024? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will there be a legal way to sell one's kidney in the United States by the end of 2032? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Conditional on anyone proposing marriage via Manifold before 2025, will that couple still be together after the proposal? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will EA sentiment surrounding SBF trend positive by 2040? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will public sentiment surrounding SBF trend positive by 2040? | 0.16 | Manifold |
By 2026 will any RL agent with learned causal models of its environment achieve superhuman performance on >=10 Atari environments? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will betting in or subsidizing specific prediction markets be an EA cause area by 2030? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will Richard Heart (Richard James Schueler) be convicted of any felony crime before 2030? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Sam Bankman-Fried gets pardoned or granted clemency by EOY 2032 | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win the 2024 election? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Predict Metaculus: Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and the occupied East before 2024? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will there be 9.7 billion humans living on Earth in 2050? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will there be a post-mortem album by David Bowie released before 2027? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will Google layoff at least 8000 employees before the end of November 2022. | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will a Human Die in a Rocket Launch/ and or Space by 2035? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will Manifold markets be used as part of an oracle before 2025? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will anyone's profit on Manifold reach $1,000,000 mana by the end of 2024? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Sam Bankman Fried receive a prison sentence before 2030? | 0.94 | Manifold |
Will Sam Bankman Fried receive a criminal penalty of more than 10 years in prison before 2030? | 0.9 | Manifold |
Will Sam Bankman Fried receive a criminal penalty of more than 20 years in prison before 2030? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will Sam Bankman Fried receive a criminal penalty at least as severe as life imprisonment with the possibility of parole before 2030? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Before 2024 there will be someone trading full-time on manifold specifically to raise money to give to charity. | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Jeff Bezos be found guilty of fraud before 2030? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will there be sufficient REE independance for China not to limit global supply by 2024 | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will CZ (Head of Binance) be found to have committed fraud before 2030? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will a nuclear pulse propulsion system be tested by 2040? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Destiny get anyone pregnant before 2024? (that we know of) | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will there be another EA reputational crisis before 2028? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Conditional on SBF or Caroline Ellison being dead by 2025, will the cause of death be ruled a suicide? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026? | 0.82 | Manifold |
Will Polymarket remove a market for regulatory reasons before 2024? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Scandal markets for EA related things will unfairly tank someone's reputation before 2024, or otherwise seem (ETA: significantly) negative EV in retrospect because of drama caused or changed perception of EA. | 0.03 | Manifold |
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