text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will anthropicprincipal#7847 come out as gay by the end of 2022 | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will top ai art generators implement copyright protection eg "no prompting for Mickey mouse" by end of 2024? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will any prediction market clearly elicit knowledge about an important event that was otherwise unknown to the public before 2025? | 0.95 | Manifold |
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be found to have committed fraud before 2030? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Scott Alexander be found to have committed fraud before 2030? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Melina and Destiny stop seeing each other before 1/1/2024? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will the first quantum computer to factor RSA-2048 be a topological quantum computer? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Self-sustaining automated global economy by 2050? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will Destiny and Melina start an OnlyFans before 2024? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Lex Fridman interview Vitali Klitschko by the end of 2024? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Lex Fridman interview Ken Griffin by the end of 2025? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will Manifold Dream be significantly improved before 2024? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will the Destiny.gg group have above 3000 traders at the end of 2022? | 0.92 | Manifold |
Will Nate Silver out-predict his forecast in the 2024 election? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will AMF lack funding to implement effective initiatives before 2030? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will Gretchen Whitmer run for president in 2024? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump Create His Own Party for the 2024 Election? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Peter Singer be responsible for a fraud scandal before 2024? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Huobi be insolvent before 2024? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will MrGirl be arrested before 2024? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Crypto.com be insolvent by 2024? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will reading in the schools be optional by 2050? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will reading in the schools be optional by 2045? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will reading in the schools be optional by 2040? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will reading be optional in schools by 2035? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Election? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Which candidates will definitely not win Brazil 2026 presidential election ? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will SBF found another company post-FTX by 2030? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will FTX users be able to withdraw all their funds until the end of 2024? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Prefect repository have more stars in GitHub than Airflow's by the end of 2024? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Manifold will adopt OpenID Connect as authentication system before 2025? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will Jaan Tallinn be found guilty of fraud before 2024? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will regulators make rules against institutional investment (e.g. pension funds) in crypto related assets? Before 2025 | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will substantial evidence emerge by 2025 that the FTX Future Fund team had strong suspicions of fraudulent activities at FTX before November 2022? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Destiny go back on The Lex Fridman Podcast before 2024? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will Nathan Young (me) be responsible for any scandal by 2024? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will MrGirl mention this website angrily before 2024? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will the population of Russia in 2034 be above 150 million? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will a nuclear saltwater rocket engine be tested before 2040? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Coinbase Outage/Freeze by 2030? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Destiny be the ruler of the free world by 2060? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao incarcerated before 2026 | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will the Russia-Ukraine war end during 2024? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will Destiny Wear a Suit Before 2024? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Hasan And Destiny Talk On Stream Before 2024? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Vaush and Destiny Talk On Stream Before 2024? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Vitalik Buterin be found guilty of fraud before 2024? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Matt Yglesias be found guilty of fraud before 2024? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will William MacAskill be found guilty of fraud before 2024? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Cari Tuna be found guilty of fraud before 2024? | 0 | Manifold |
Will Dustin Moskovitz be responsible for a fraud scandal before 2024? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will Coinbase filed for bankruptcy in 2024? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will the transfer of tokenised LP interests become a common liquidity path for LPs by 2030? | 0.1 | Manifold |
In 2024, a US state will override its presidential election result to send different elector(s) to the electoral college | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will any of the GiveWell top recommended charities be Malaria-related at the end of 2030? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will any country with at least 10 million people be using primarily decimal time before 2050? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will there be a functional space-based solar power plant before 2045? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will humanity be mining asteroids by 2100? | 0.76 | Manifold |
At least one state will be struck from the US electoral college vote in 2024 | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will trump run as a third party candidate in 2024? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Destiny have 2 million subscribers by 2025 | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Mosul Dam collapse before 2025-11-10? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will Twitter go bankrupt before 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump claim election fraud against opponents in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will SpinLaunch have a successful launch by EoY 2028? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will SpinLaunch have a successful launch by EoY 2026? | 0.19 | Manifold |
IF SCOTUS rules AGAINST state legislatures in Moore v. Harper before 2024, will a Republican win the 2024 Presidential election? | 0.33 | Manifold |
IF SCOTUS rules in FAVOR of state legislatures in Moore v. Harper before 2024, will a Republican win the 2024 Presidential election? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will SBF be imprisoned before 2030 | 0.92 | Manifold |
Will Ron DeSantis be elected US President in 2024? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will BART achieve avg weekday ridership >500,000 in any month before 2026 | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will BART achieve yearly ridership >5 million by 2025 | 0.5 | Manifold |
Conditional on a democrat winning in 2024, will republicans attempt a coup? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Destiny and Melina get divorced before 2024? | 0.13 | Manifold |
SBF convicted of a felony before 2024 | 0.51 | Manifold |
If any nuclear weapons are detonated by 2028, will any have a yield above 50 megatons? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will 25% or more of my virtual work meetings be in VR / AR by 2042? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will 25% or more of my virtual work meetings be in VR / AR by 2032? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will any US city besides NYC/NJ achieve transit ridership >50% by 2030 | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will a VR video game make the Wikipedia "best of all time" list by 2030? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Predict Metaculus: U.S. Const. Convention called before 2028 | 0.19 | Manifold |
What will US total fertility rate be in 2030 | 0.33 | Manifold |
What will the $/kWh price for battery cells be at the end of 2025 | 0.74 | Manifold |
What will the $/kWh price for battery cells be at the end of 2030 | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will an mRNA HIV vaccine pass Phase 2 trials by 2025 | 0.23 | Manifold |
IF in 2030, atmospheric CO2 is 435-440 ppm, what will be the global temperature anomaly in 2030? | 0.6 | Manifold |
IF in 2030, atmospheric CO2 is 440-445 ppm, what will be the global temperature anomaly in 2030? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will there be a trivorce in the United States by 2040? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will polygamous marriage be legal in any US state by 2035? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will a third-party candidate win the US presidency by 2040? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will the term "the N-word" itself be considered obscene before 2036? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will North Korea detonate a nuclear weapon offensively before 2024? | 0.03 | Manifold |
"The Verge": Fully SNARKed Ethereum by 2027-02-06? | 0.66 | Manifold |
"The Merge": Will Ethereum have single-slot finality by 2025-03-06? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will real 75th percentile software engineer comp be higher than today in 2025 in the US | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will real 75th percentile software engineer comp be higher than today in 2025 in The Bay Area | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will Xi Jinping be assassinated before 2025-01-01? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will anyone successfully contest one of my resolution decisions before 2031? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Wordt er nog voor 2024 een mens aangevallen door een wolf in Nederland? | 0.96 | Manifold |
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