text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will a new party be elected to NZ Parliament by 2030? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Wordt er nog voor 2024 een mens gedood door een wolf in Nederland? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Brazil decriminalize the recreational use of marijuana by the end of 2026? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will a general European Union-Mercosur trade agreement be concluded before Dec, 31st 2024? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will the most expensive house in California go "pending" before Christmas? ($225 Million) https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/33550-Pacific-Coast-Hwy-Malibu-CA-90265/68978572_zpid/ | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will the Adidas Backpack I bought last till Nov. 1 2026? (4 years from purchase) | 0.37 | Manifold |
Inflation will be higher than 5% until summer of 2024 because of a "black swan" event. | 0.19 | Manifold |
Republicans win democratically and then end democracy swiftly, satisfying militiants and quelling uprisings; civil war is avoided, but democracy becomes an empty shell and no part of the federal government regains democratic control by 2028 | 0.06 | Manifold |
Republicans win democratically and then end democracy swiftly, satisfying militiants and quelling uprisings; civil war is avoided, but democracy becomes an empty shell and no part of the federal government regains democratic control by 2028 | 0.5 | Manifold |
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Personal Consumption Index (PCE), "Change from Month One Year Ago" Metric Will Not Be Lower Than 5% Until June 2024 | 0.3 | Manifold |
"The Surge": Will Ethereum use 2D Reed-Solomon Codes by 2024-03-05? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will the S&P 500 Index fall below AND remain under the $3000 level by the end of 2022? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Republicans win democratically and then end democracy swiftly, satisfying militiants and quelling uprisings; civil war is avoided, but democracy becomes an empty shell and no part of the federal government regains democratic control by 2028 | 0.1 | Manifold |
At the end of 2024, Wikipedia will say there were this many total people killed by the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election have a minimum net worth greater then $1 million USD as reported by OpenSecrets | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election have a minimum net worth greater then $1 million USD as reported by OpenSecerts? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be married at the time of election | 0.96 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election posses a postgraduate degree at the time of election | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will a blank-slate AI prove the infinitude of primes by 2025-11-03? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will GiveWell say that Dispensers for Safe Water are less than 6.5x as effective as GiveDirectly before 2024? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will Xi stay on power by the end of 2030? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will Putin die before 2030? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Proof-of-work banned in California by 2032-11-02? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will most self-driving cars in 2029 use LIDAR? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will >100 people in the US commute by flying car by 2024 | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Jetson deliver >500 units by 2025 | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will a EU member country see a year-to-year CPI inflation print of >50% before Dec 31st 2027? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will Kari Lake run for President in 2024? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will the S&P/Case-Schiller U.S. National Home Price Index (CSUSHPINSA) Be Below 215.0 by June 1st, 2024? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Biden be impeached by 2025? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will a new SEC / IRS rule cause CF secondary volume to decrease by ~50% by 2030? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will 10%+ of LP Secondaries volume be hosted on an LP interest exchange by 2030? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will the "Secondary Private Equity" group on Manifold be featured / mentioned in Secondaries Investor by 2025? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will humans create a black hole by 2100? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will there be a major controversy involving AI art and a serialized manga by the end of 2026? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will Moldova join the EU by 2025 | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will the construction of the space hotel Voyager Station begin in 2026? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will Manifold support trading from fediverse accounts by 2030? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Manifold support federation between instances of Manifold by 2030? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will FedNow handle more fund flows than ACH by the end of 2025 | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will qualified immunity be substantially repealed before 2040? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will members of the EA community create an EA-focused university by 2030? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will regulation effectively kill decentralized cryptocurrency by the end of 2032? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Conditional on large-scale conflict between robots and humans before 2100, will at least one robot use a sword as a weapon? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Twitter IPO in 2025? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will Twitter IPO in 2024? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk declare personal bankruptcy before the end of 2027? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will US life expectancy in 2050 be 100 or above? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will US life expectancy in 2075 be 100 or above? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will US life expectancy in 2075 be 85 or above? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will US life expectancy in 2050 be 85 or above? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will the supreme court be majority-women in 2040? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will more women than men be U.S. president in 2025 through 2052? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Is discord user @V2#3642 related to @v? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will the Cape declare independence before 2025? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Republicans win the House/Senate midterms and Trump win in 2024? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will the US population be >500M by 2050? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will a Vyvanse generic be available in the UK in 2024? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will FTX raise a down round before the end of 2026? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully brought back to life by end of 2100? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully brought back to life by end of 2075? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully brought back to life by end of 2050? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact go into effect by the 2032 election? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact go into effect by the 2028 election? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact go into effect by the 2024 election? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will there be a US president who identifies as queer by 2035? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will there be a US president who identifies as female by end of 2035? | 0.48 | Manifold |
A pure binary LLM will exist by end of 2024 | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will there be a "Doping-Allowed Olympics" by 2050? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will WADA still exist in 2050? | 0.9 | Manifold |
Will the US effectively abolish the Electoral College for presidential elections by 2040? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will the US Federal Government legalize recreational marijuana by 2030? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will the US abolish the Electoral College for presidential elections by 2040? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will 10% or more of Americans identify as atheist by 2040? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will a self-identifying atheist be elected president of the United States by 2040? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will a U.S. House Representative, Senator, or President/Vice President self identify as an effective altruist by the end of 2030? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will the WSJ, NYT, FT, or Economist create a market on Manifold by 2030? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will AR/VR technologies meaningfully influence my life as of 12/31/2030? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will anyone who cut ties with Kanye West work with him again by 2024? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will there be ≥30k confirmed exoplanets by EoY 2030? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will there be ≥20k confirmed exoplanets by EoY 2030? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will there be ≥15k confirmed exoplanets by EoY 2025? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will there be ≥10k confirmed exoplanets by EoY 2025? | 0.48 | Manifold |
If the 2024 presidential race is Elizabeth Warren vs Mike Pompeo, then Elizabeth Warren will win | 0.76 | Manifold |
If the 2024 presidential race is Elizabeth Warren vs Nikki Haley, then Elizabeth Warren will win | 0.61 | Manifold |
If the 2024 presidential race is Elizabeth Warren vs Ron Desantis, then Elizabeth Warren will win | 0.21 | Manifold |
If the 2024 presidential race is Elizabeth Warren vs Donald Trump, then Elizabeth Warren will win | 0.65 | Manifold |
If the 2024 presidential race is Kamala Harris vs Mike Pompeo, then Kamala Harris will win | 0.55 | Manifold |
If the 2024 presidential race is Kamala Harris vs Nikki Haley, then Kamala Harris will win | 0.49 | Manifold |
If the 2024 presidential race is Kamala Harris vs Ron Desantis, then Kamala Harris will win | 0.37 | Manifold |
If the 2024 presidential race is Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump, then Kamala Harris will win | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will a massive solar storm occur before 2050? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will one of my OTHER markets be gamed before 2024? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will one of my markets be gamed before 2024? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will natural language based proof assistants be in common use by 2026? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will there exist a compelling demonstration of deceptive alignment by 2026? | 0.69 | Manifold |
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