text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will Twitter reach 10B in subscription revenue by 2028? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will there be a space elevator by 2050? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will another Breaking Bad/Better Call Saul Spin Off be announced before 2025? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will there be a civil war in Nigeria before 2030 | 0.56 | Manifold |
If the 2024 presidential race is Gavin Newsom vs Mike Pompeo, then Gavin Newsom will win | 0.59 | Manifold |
If the 2024 presidential race is Gavin Newsom vs Nikki Haley, then Gavin Newsom will win | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will there be a parliamentary election in the UK before 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
This market resolves YES on 2100-01-01 | 0.98 | Manifold |
Will cancer be cured by 2035? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Gaan PvdA en Groenlinks fuseren voor 2024 | 0.39 | Manifold |
Zal het OM voor 2024 proberen FvD te verbieden? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will construction on Penlink finish before 2030? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will any iteration of OpenAI’s GPT models be multimodal by 2030? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will there be Kessler Syndrome before 2053? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will construction on Penlink finish before 2027? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will the FDA approve a fully autonomous robotic surgery device before 2030? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will Xi Jinping continue to lead China through end of 2028? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will construction on Penlink begin before 2024? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will a technocrat be elected US president by 2040? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will GPT-5 come out before 2027? | 0.89 | Manifold |
Will Vermont have had two female representatives by 2028? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will Thousand Foot Krutch release any new material by 2030? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Bryan Caplan lose any of his public bets by 2030? | 0.98 | Manifold |
If the 2024 presidential race is Gavin Newsom vs Ron Desantis, then Gavin Newsom will win | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will there be an earthquake causing at least 1 death in New Zealand by 2027? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will Trump be impeached if he wins in 2024? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will Biden be impeached in 2024? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will the U.S. CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will more than 11k objects be launched into space in 2025? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will more than 4500 objects be launched into space in 2023? | 0.28 | Manifold |
AMPLIFIED ODDS 20x: Will a new pandemic break out before 2024? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will AI get ≥90% one-shot accuracy on Mintaka before 2024? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will digital license plates become legal in most states by 2040? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Head of state says "dildo" in public before 2030 | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will there be a tsunami causing at least 1 death in New Zealand by 2027? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will there be a widely accepted precise definition of mesaoptimizer by 2026? | 0.27 | Manifold |
If the 2024 presidential race is Gavin Newsom vs Donald Trump, then Gavin Newsom will win | 0.56 | Manifold |
If the 2024 presidential race is Jen Psaki vs Mike Pompeo, then Jen Psaki will win | 0.45 | Manifold |
If the 2024 presidential race is Jen Psaki vs Nikki Haley, then Jen Psaki will win | 0.39 | Manifold |
If the 2024 presidential race is Jen Psaki vs Ron Desantis, then Jen Psaki will win | 0.35 | Manifold |
If the 2024 presidential race is Jen Psaki vs Donald Trump, then Jen Psaki will win | 0.29 | Manifold |
If the 2024 presidential race is Pete Buttigieg vs Mike Pompeo, then Pete Buttigieg will win | 0.58 | Manifold |
If the 2024 presidential race is Pete Buttigieg vs Nikki Haley, then Pete Buttigieg will win | 0.65 | Manifold |
If the 2024 presidential race is Pete Buttigieg vs Ron Desantis, then Pete Buttigieg will win | 0.45 | Manifold |
If the 2024 presidential race is Pete Buttigieg vs Donald Trump, then Pete Buttigieg will win | 0.42 | Manifold |
If the 2024 presidential race is Joe Biden vs Mike Pompeo, then Joe Biden will win | 0.6 | Manifold |
If the 2024 presidential race is Joe Biden vs Nikki Haley, then Joe Biden will win | 0.56 | Manifold |
If the 2024 presidential race is Joe Biden vs Ron Desantis, then Joe Biden will win | 0.53 | Manifold |
If the 2024 presidential race is Joe Biden vs Donald Trump, then Joe Biden will win | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will Australia become a republic by 2100? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2100? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will citizens of the US be able to travel to more than 50% of countries without a physical passport by 2050? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will Manifold reach 2400 DAU (7d average) by April 1st? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will Wales leave the UK by 2100? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Which political party will control the US Senate after the 2024 elections? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will the Cascadia megaearthquake (magnitude 8.0 or above) in the Pacific NW happen by 2035? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will anyone be killed by falling space debris before the end of 2032? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will the BLM movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will the animal rights movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will SBF have any crypto community support by 2024? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will Bitcoin’s price reach all-time high by the end of 2024? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will risk from misaligned AI be popularly perceived to be greater at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)? | 0.91 | Manifold |
Will the S&P 500 close below 3600 on Dec 30, 2022? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will Russia join NATO before 2050? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 presidential race be Elizabeth Warren vs Mike Pompeo? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 presidential race be Elizabeth Warren vs Nikki Haley? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 presidential race be Elizabeth Warren vs Ron Desantis? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 presidential race be Elizabeth Warren vs Donald Trump? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 presidential race be Kamala Harris vs Mike Pompeo? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 presidential race be Kamala Harris vs Nikki Haley? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 presidential race be Kamala Harris vs Ron Desantis? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 presidential race be Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 presidential race be Gavin Newsom vs Mike Pompeo? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 presidential race be Gavin Newsom vs Nikki Haley? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 presidential race be Gavin Newsom vs Ron Desantis? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 presidential race be Gavin Newsom vs Donald Trump? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 presidential race be Jen Psaki vs Mike Pompeo? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 presidential race be Jen Psaki vs Nikki Haley? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 presidential race be Jen Psaki vs Ron Desantis? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 presidential race be Jen Psaki vs Donald Trump? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 presidential race be Pete Buttigieg vs Mike Pompeo? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 presidential race be Pete Buttigieg vs Nikki Haley? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 presidential race be Pete Buttigieg vs Ron Desantis? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 presidential race be Pete Buttigieg vs Donald Trump? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 presidential race be Joe Biden vs Mike Pompeo? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 presidential race be Joe Biden vs Nikki Haley? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 presidential race be Joe Biden vs Ron Desantis? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 presidential race be Joe Biden vs Donald Trump? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will Elizabeth Warren be the Democratic Nominee for President in 2024? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Nominee for President in 2024? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Nominee for President in 2024? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Mike Pompeo be the Republican Nominee for President in 2024? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will Nikki Haley be the Republican Nominee for President in 2024? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will ELK still be a major problem by Oct 20, 2026 (according to me)? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will Scotland leave the UK by 2100? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will the worst-case ELK problem be solved by Oct 20, 2026? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will Ruja Ignatova be found (dead or alive) before 2027-10-25? | 0.45 | Manifold |
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