Datasets:
satpalsr
/
forsample

Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
 Community
1
text
stringlengths
12
11.8k
prediction
float64
0
1
source
stringclasses
5 values
Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?
0.73
Manifold
Will the USA housing market crash before 2024?
0.12
Manifold
Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
0.74
Manifold
Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
0.27
Manifold
Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
0.53
Manifold
Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
0.64
Manifold
Will the WHO declare another pandemic before the end of 2040?
0.67
Manifold
King Charles intervenes in UK government before 2024
0.02
Manifold
If China is not blocked from buying chips from TSMC, will they invade Taiwan before the end of 2025?
0.2
Manifold
China has been blocked from buying supercomputer chips from TSMC. Will they invade Taiwan before the end of 2025?
0.32
Manifold
Will Texas enact an anti-transgender bill before 2025?
0.85
Manifold
Will scientists create artificial blood to be used on any patient by the end of 2024?
0.41
Manifold
Will any genetically modified human embryo be legally born by the end of 2025?
0.41
Manifold
Will Bitcoin mining be regulated in the US by the end of 2024?
0.3
Manifold
College Enrollment will decline till the end of 2024
0.72
Manifold
Samsa the musical artist will return to music before 2040
0.74
Manifold
Will Warren Buffet Die before 2024
0.1
Manifold
Will the Irish Reunification of 2024 happen?
0.15
Manifold
Will Humanity Obstruct the Sun before 2030?
0.11
Manifold
Will the United States be using the metric system by the end of 2035?
0.23
Manifold
Will the Turkic States merge by 2100?
0.37
Manifold
Will a US state attempt to leave the union by 2100?
0.5
Manifold
Will the US admit a new state by 2100?
0.7
Manifold
Will the European Union become a country by 2100?
0.35
Manifold
Will New Zealand have a codified constitution by 2100?
0.58
Manifold
Will New Zealand change its flag by 2100?
0.55
Manifold
Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032?
0.36
Manifold
If the winner of the 2024 Presidential election is a Republican, the Democratic candidate will refuse to concede defeat
0.11
Manifold
If the winner of the 2024 Presidential election is a Democrat, the Republican candidate will refuse to concede defeat
0.53
Manifold
Given nuclear weapons use before 2024. How many nuclear weapons will be used?
0.22
Manifold
Will SOTA for RL on Atari-57 include a large pretrained language/image/video model by 2024?
0.61
Manifold
Will any Fortune 500 corporation mostly/entirely replace their customer service workforce with AI by 2026?
0.86
Manifold
Will there be entry-level AI coders by 2026?
0.57
Manifold
Will North Korea invade South Korea by 2035?
0.33
Manifold
Will Elon Musk found another billion dollar company by 2030?
0.33
Manifold
Will Kanye release a #1 or $5m+ album by 2025?
0.38
Manifold
Will Elon Musk create a parent company to consolidate his various business interests (e.g., Tesla, SpaceX, etc.) by 2027
0.2
Manifold
Will more than 20 organizations publicly train large language models by 2024?
0.23
Manifold
Will Israel provide the Iron Dome missile defence system to Ukraine before 2024?
0.12
Manifold
Will the U.K. economic collapse inspire the citizens to elect a far-right government before 2024?
0.05
Manifold
Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza?
0.92
Manifold
Will membership in the LDS church decline YoY in any year between now and 2030
0.71
Manifold
Will Brigham Young University allow students to wear beards by 2030
0.65
Manifold
Will the LDS church permit women to hold the priesthood by 2030
0.08
Manifold
Will the LDS church continue to prohibit coffee by 2030
0.87
Manifold
Will the LDS Church permit gay marriage by 2030?
0.08
Manifold
Will you be able to buy T-shirts with the unified laws of the universe printed on them in 2056?
0.4
Manifold
Will New Zealand be using MMP in 2040?
0.69
Manifold
Will there be an off-year snap election in New Zealand by 2040?
0.2
Manifold
US College enrollment rate over 50% in 2026
0.27
Manifold
Will a polynomial-time algorithm for an NP-complete problem be published by 2030?
0.03
Manifold
Will the US decriminalise prostitution by 2030?
0.12
Manifold
Will Australia change its flag by 2030?
0.19
Manifold
Will Australia become a republic by 2030?
0.33
Manifold
Will there be fewer Kea parrots in 2030 than in 2020?
0.54
Manifold
Will an AI-generated song make the Billboard Top 100 by 2024?
0.41
Manifold
Will Germany legalize Cannabis before 2024?
0.36
Manifold
AI: Will a video generation model be publicly available by 2024?
0.79
Manifold
"The Splurge": Will Ethereum use VDFs by 2024-01-01?
0.08
Manifold
"The Purge": Will Ethereum change SELFDESTRUCT by 2024-01-01?
0.72
Manifold
Will an AI-drawn movie have a rating >=7.0 on IMDB by 2025?
0.23
Manifold
hollywood-level AI-generated feature film by 2026
0.17
Manifold
Will Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2030?
0.15
Manifold
Will the April 8, 2024 partial solar eclipse have coverage over 50% at 3:29 pm in Boston?
0.98
Manifold
Will Wales leave the UK by 2030?
0.04
Manifold
CCP loses control of a province or SAR before 2030
0.12
Manifold
Will the US implement a carbon tax by 2030?
0.4
Manifold
Will any country implement a universal basic income by 2026?
0.31
Manifold
Will a new nuclear power plant be operational in Sweden by 2035?
0.65
Manifold
Will psilocybin be legal to sell in SF by 2030?
0.71
Manifold
Will psilocybin be legal to sell in San Francisco by end of 2025?
0.31
Manifold
By 2025, we will have made an artificial system that is judged with high likelihood (>80%) to have some sort of conscious experience
0.14
Manifold
By 2024, a significant fraction of philosophers (>20%) take seriously the notion that language models with a size and architecture similar to GPT-3 are partially conscious
0.1
Manifold
Will Elon Musk create a market on Manifold before the end of 2030?
0.08
Manifold
Will a US state attempt to leave the union by 2030?
0.07
Manifold
Will the US admit a new state by 2030?
0.16
Manifold
Will cannabis be decriminalised in New Zealand by 2027?
0.54
Manifold
Will New Zealand implement a carbon tax by 2027?
0.44
Manifold
Will any jurisdiction legalise the production and sale of cocaine by 2025?
0.11
Manifold
Will a new Ace Attorney game be released before 2027?
0.49
Manifold
Will a new Super Smash Bros. game be released before 2026?
0.19
Manifold
Will Avraham Eisenberg become a billionaire before the end of 2030?
0.11
Manifold
Will Avraham Eisenberg spend at least 6 months in jail before the end of 2030?
1
Manifold
AI honesty #4: by 2027, will we have AI that would tell us if it was planning on destroying us (conditional on that being true)?
0.23
Manifold
AI honesty #3: by 2027 will we have interpretability tools for detecting when an AI is being deceptive?
0.27
Manifold
AI honesty #2: by 2027 will we have a reasonable outer alignment procedure for training honest AI?
0.26
Manifold
AI honesty #1: by 2027 will we have AI that doesn't hallucinate random nonsense?
0.8
Manifold
Will a major tech company release a generative video editor by the end of 2024?
0.75
Manifold
By 2027 will there be a language model that passes a redteam test for honesty?
0.24
Manifold
By 2027 will there be a well-accepted training procedure(s) for making AI honest?
0.16
Manifold
Will Nikki Haley run for President in 2024?
1
Manifold
Elon Musk criticizes China or CCP before 2026.
0.65
Manifold
Will Greg Abbott run for President in 2024?
0.27
Manifold
Will Chris Christie run for President in 2024?
1
Manifold
Will a model named "Gato 2" be released before 2025?
0.85
Manifold
Will at least 73 billion chickens be killed for meat in 2025?
0.83
Manifold
Will Cantrip Cards & Games still be alive by 2025?
0.75
Manifold
Will there be a dinosaur alive by the end of 2039?
0.19
Manifold
Will Kristi Noem run for president in 2024?
0.38
Manifold
D.C. Statehood by 2027?
0.07
Manifold