text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
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|---|---|---|
Before 2024, will opinion polling show less than 30% of Russians intend to vote for United Russia? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Major Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary becomes independent corporation before 2027 | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will there be a nuclear powerplant operating in Germany, in 2024? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will the UK be powered entirely by clean electricity by 2035? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will atmospheric CO₂ concentration exceed 425 ppm in 2025? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will atmospheric CO₂ concentration exceed 450 ppm in 2030? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will atmospheric CO₂ concentration exceed 600 ppm in 2100? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will there be an expert-player-beating AI in EU4 by 2026? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will atmospheric CO₂ concentration exceed 500 ppm in 2050? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Before 2024, will fewer than 50% of Russians believe that the situation in the country is going in the right direction? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Conditional on Russia using nuclear weapons by 2025, will India officially condemn Russia, announce the end of the partnership, and - in the perception of NATO consensus - act accordingly? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will Ken Jennings’ record for Jeopardy winnings be beaten before 2024? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Hans Niemann's rating be above 2700 at the end of 2022? | 0.98 | Manifold |
Billionaire US citizen convicted of felony before 2026 | 0.99 | Manifold |
Harvard University’s freshman class size increases by at least 25% before 2026. | 0.22 | Manifold |
By 2024 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Based on Vincent Luczkow's 2029 market) | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will there be an expert-player-beating AI in civ 6 by 2026? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will trans ideology lose power/popularity relative to other leftist causes by the beginning of 2028? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will there be over 9 billion people by 2037? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will there be over 9 billion people by 2037? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will there be over 9 billion people by 2037? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Manifold be sold before 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Lake Mead reach deadpool status at any point before the end of 2025? | 0.09 | Manifold |
10-year US treasuries yield >10% any time before 2026 | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine send any weapons to Taiwan by 2028? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will China annex any portion of Russia/Siberia by 2035? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will there be realistic AI generated dialogue (with sound) by 2024? | 0.97 | Manifold |
Will it be possible for AI to generate reasonably good video ads by 2024? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will there be realistic AI generated video with full sound by 2024? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will there be realistic AI generated video with dialogue by 2024? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will annual secondary PE transaction volume surpass $1 Trillion by 2030 | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will AI be able to accurately answer Magic: The Gathering rules questions before 2030? | 0.92 | Manifold |
Will Flesh and Blood still have a strong competitive scene in 2025? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Kessler Syndrome before 2028? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Verizon offer basic internet service via satellite (in the US) by 2030? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will AT&T offer basic internet service via satellite (in the US) by 2030? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will annual transaction volume in GP-led PE secondaries be greater than LP-led in FY 2025? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will annual secondary PE transaction volume surpass $500B by 2030 | 0.48 | Manifold |
In 2040, what will the prevailing opinion of Edward Snowden be? Resolves as % from traitor to hero. | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027? | 0.27 | Manifold |
SBF convicted of a felony before 2026 | 0.89 | Manifold |
Elon Musk convicted of a felony before 2026 | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Manifold implement Uniswap v3 for range liquidity before 2024? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will Twitter IPO by 2028? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will Twitter IPO by 2025? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will the ISS still be in operation at the start of 2030? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will the ISS still be in operation at the start of 2029? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will the ISS still be in operation at the start of 2028? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will the ISS still be in operation at the start of 2027? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will the ISS still be in operation at the start of 2026? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will the ISS still be in operation at the start of 2025? | 0.9 | Manifold |
Will the company Beyond Meat (BYND) be bought out by another company before the end of 2024? | 0.42 | Manifold |
By 2026, will it be standard practice to sandbox SOTA LLMs? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will there be a well accepted formal definition for honesty in AI by 2027? | 0.41 | Manifold |
By the end of 2029 will there be a UV light company worth $1 billion? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will the value of any of the cards printed in the Magic: 30th Anniversary set exceed the price of an MSRP sealed booster box by the end of 2027? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will the value of any of the cards printed in the Magic: 30th Anniversary set exceed the price of an MSRP sealed booster pack by the end of 2027? | 0.81 | Manifold |
If a nuclear weapon is detonated offensively before 2024, will a strategic nuclear weapon be detonated offensively within one year? | 0.15 | Manifold |
If a nuclear weapon is detonated offensively before 2024, will a countervalue (non-military target) nuclear detonation occur within 1 year? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will the first offensive nuclear weapon detonation before 2024 be a tactical (nonstrategic) nuclear weapon? | 0.9 | Manifold |
Will the first offensive nuclear weapon detonation before 2024 be deliberate? | 0.82 | Manifold |
Will Meta simultaneously make a profit at Reality Labs while making more than 12.46B of revenue in any fiscal year to 2030? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will my African Grey Parrot be alive at the beginning of 2030? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will Russia be broken up by the end of 2024? | 0.1 | Manifold |
By 2030, will Tesla mass produce a colour changing car? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Korean reunification be complete by 2031? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will there be a well accepted formal definition of value alignment for AI by 2030? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will there be an expert-player-beating AI (eg in a x-of-5 match beats Viper/Daut/Hera) in Age of Empires II (AoE2) by 2025? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will there be a Grand Theft Auto or Midtown Madness clone based on the real world in Google Maps by 2028? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will there be easy auto-translation of the entire Chinese Internet into English by 2027? (such that people in America can easily and regularly hold conversations with people in China - with minimal loss of interpretation)? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will the EA forum support users estimating values in posts and then supplying some kind of median, by 2030? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will a majority of Shakespeare scholars be Oxfordians by 2030? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030? | 0.43 | Manifold |
S&P 500 closes below 3200 in 2022 | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will there be any mobilization in Poland before 2025? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will any new proof about the safety properties of any SOTA algorithm/model be published by 2024? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Conditional on Donald Trump NOT being indicted before the 2024 presidential election, will he win said election? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will the California Remove Voter Approval Requirement for Public Low-Rent Housing Projects Amendment (2024) pass? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Satoshi Nakamoto's account transfers BTC before 2025. | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will aducanumab be withdrawn by the FDA by 2025? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will the FDA approve a disease-modifying treatment for Parkinson's disease by 2025? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will there be a border poll in Northern Ireland on Irish reunification by the end of 2028? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will there be real-world protests in the US of at least 1,000 people against AI art by the end of 2026? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will the Tesla Bot be available by 2028? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will the 5-state Busy Beaver be known by June 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will there be a text-to-audio tool that produces sounds of a quality comparable to real recordings, by 2024? (Musical-, voice- and synthesizer imitations excluded) | 0.95 | Manifold |
Will "AI art" (text2img,etc) be regulated before 2024? | 0.88 | Manifold |
Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by the end of 2024? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will annual private equity secondaries market surpass $250B in transaction volume by 2025 | 0.21 | Manifold |
Credit Suisse insolvent or bankrupt before 2025 | 0.09 | Manifold |
LNG import/export terminal destroyed for any reason before 2026. | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine join NATO by 2025? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Tesla Inc's market capitalization drops below US$300 billion on NASDAQ before 2024 or TSLA bankrupt. | 0.09 | Manifold |
A publicly-traded Google competitor's search-derived revenue exceeds Google's search-derived revenue for four consecutive quarters before 2028. | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will Tesla be the most valuable US company by 2030? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will Tesla sell >1M humanoid robots by 2030? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will Tesla sell >$1B of humanoid robots by 2030? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Magnus Carlsen compete for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship before 2033? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will the Cosmos ecosystem market cap reach 300B USDe before 2025? | 0.41 | Manifold |
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