text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
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|---|---|---|
Will Google discontinue the Chromecast product line by the end of 2025 without offering a replacement? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will Google Pay be discontinued by the end of 2025? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Google create a new internally-developed smartphone model and sell it widely at some point in the year 2025 or 2026? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will Youtube TV be discontinued by the end of 2025? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will Google Fi be discontinued by the end of 2025? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will GCP still be a significant cloud provider by the end of 2025? | 0.93 | Manifold |
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will Putin confirm he ordered a nuclear strike by 2025? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Conditional on Russia using nuclear weapons by 2025, will China officially condemn Russia, announce the end of the partnership, and - in the perception of NATO consensus - act accordingly? | 0.47 | Manifold |
S&P 500 will go below 3000 during 2022 | 0.01 | Manifold |
The next census in 2030 will show an increase in United States birth rate. | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will there be legally provable evidence of voter fraud in the 2024 Presidential Election? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will SpaceX launch a mission to Hubble before 2026 | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will life be discovered on Venus by 2052? | 0.13 | Manifold |
By 2035, will the presence of anomalously high levels of phosphine on Venus be confirmed by spacecraft? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will homicides return to pre-BLM levels by 2030? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will homicides return to pre-BLM levels by 2025? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will the total crypto market cap reach >10 trillion USDe before 2030? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will we have the Theory of Everything by 2040? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will there be 5 or more faithless electors in the 2024 US presidential election? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will far-UVC or a successor technology be ubiquitous by 2033? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will FTX go bankrupt before 2024? | 0.96 | Manifold |
Will Russia be classified as a "flawed democracy" by 2030? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Kazakhstan be classified as a "hybrid regime" by 2025? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will chess be solved by 2040? | 0.16 | Manifold |
S&P 500 will close below $3720.00 on Friday, Oct 7th 2022 | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will it be a Pareto improvement to change Beeminder goals' default end date to 2099-12-31? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will SOTA on MATH in Sep 2024 utilize a hard-coded search/amplification procedure? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will the value of 1 Ether and 1 Bitcoin hit parity by the end of 2025? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will the exchange rate of USD to PLN (Polish Zloty) go above 7 before 2024? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will there be a fire alarm for AGI by the end of 2027? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will the prime factors of RSA-2048 be known before 2030? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Lean have proved the most theorems on Freek's list by beginning of 2024? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will The Nature Conservancy set up a fourth Global Debt Conversion by end of 2025? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will Manifold have a real-money market on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will an AI win a Gold Medal on the International Math Olympiad by 2027? | 0.61 | Manifold |
How many Supreme Court Justices will have been appointed by a Democratic president by 2025, if Democrats maintain control the Senate? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be available by the end of 2032? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will a Final Fantasy Pixel Remaster be released on Xbox or PlayStation before 2024? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will Do Kwon be convicted of a crime by 2025? | 1 | Manifold |
Will some Morbius Sequel/Prequel/Spinoff release by 2030? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will an AI win a Gold Medal on the International Math Olympiad by 2029? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will English be an official language of the Netherlands any time before the end of 2030? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will AMD Ryzen 5950X cost < $500 on October 28th? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will a Unión Latinoamericana be created before 2030? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will anyone in this list be the Democratic nominee by 2032? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Nintendo stop deadnaming Birdetta by the end of 2025? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will the Transformer be the most important machine learning architecture in 2025? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will Manifold introduce a machine learning-based recommender system before 2024? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will an AI be able to speedrun any popular video game faster than the human WR by the end of 2024? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will Sekiro be part of Xbox Gamepass before 2024? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will more than 2600 people attend EAGx Virtual? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will non-carbon-polluting energies represent 50% of the global energy production by 2050? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will mortgage rates fall below 5% anytime before the end of 2024? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will the Future Fund pay a prize for p(AGI before 2043) > 75%? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will the Future Fund pay a prize for p(AGI before 2043) < 3%? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will the Future Fund pay a prize for p(AGI before 2043) > 45%? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will the Future Fund pay a prize for p(AGI before 2100) < 30%? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will the Future Fund pay a prize for p(AGI before 2043) < 10%? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will Tucker Carlson run for President by 2032? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Across, 2025 will a majority of EA funding rounds have public forecasting questions/prediction markets to bet on whether grants will be given or whether grant goals will be met? | 0.2 | Manifold |
If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is NOT completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027? | 0.46 | Manifold |
If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Across, 2025 a majority of EA funding rounds will have public forecasting questions/prediction markets to bet on whether grants will be given or whether grant goals will be met. | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 election be a Biden/Trump rematch? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will any LLM pass the gears test by 2024? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will any new AI safety focused benchmark/dataset/environment be published and get >=25 citations by 2024? | 0.91 | Manifold |
Will Bitcoin go above $50k for at least 24 hours before 2024? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Bitcoin go above $30k for at least 24 hours before 2024? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Discord have a data leak affecting >1M users before end of 2024? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will Manifold officially use Matrix as chat platform before 2024? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for President by 2032? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will the total crypto market cap reach >3 trillion before 2024? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will California AB 2097 pass in 2022? (The bill removes parking requirements on new buildings close to transit.) | 0.96 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump declare bankruptcy before 2024? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Bitcoin go below $3k for at least 24 hours before 2024? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will Bitcoin go below $6k for at least 24 hours before 2024? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will vegan pizza be commonly available at one of the big four pizza chains in the US by the end of 2024? | 0.58 | Manifold |
S&P 500 will close below $3800.00 on Friday, Sep 30th 2022 | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will Bitcoin go below $10k for at least 24 hours before 2024? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will a 3D printed anti-tank weapon be used in a live conflict by 2024? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will any significant interpretability result for a SOTA Transformer architecture be published by 2025? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will the S&P500 trade above 4100 at any time before market close on Friday 23 Sept.? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will (another) genetically-engineered pathogen infect at least 10,000 people by 2030? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will, on average, more than 40% of people say the Monarchy is good for the UK, across 2025? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will an mRNA RSV vaccine be available by the end of 2025? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will the Crimean bridge be attacked before 2024 | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will California formally abolish the death penalty by end of year 2025? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Turkey hold full membership in both NATO and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization by the end of 2024? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will Turkey hold full membership in both NATO and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization by the end of 2024? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will Vladimir Putin die in any way by 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Israel launch air strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities by 2024? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will a new war start in a post-Soviet country by 2024? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will an AI reliably score at 90th percentile cognitive ability by 2025? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Bitcoin go below $15k for at least 24 hours before 2024? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Poland get any WW2 reparations from Germany before end of 2025? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will the uber hacker be found before 2024? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will AI image generating models score >= 90% on Winoground by June 1, 2025? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will Rafael Nadal announce his retirement from professional tennis before 2024? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will a Galactic Federation reveal itself to humanity by the end of 2024? | 0.02 | Manifold |
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