text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will Starlink have over ten million subscribers by the end of 2025? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will ACT-1 be publicly used to accomplish a clearly and intentionally harmful task by 2024? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will Kanye West run for president in 2024? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will Pete Buttigieg run for president in 2024? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Is territory of Armenia going to be at least partially occupied by Azerbaijan on 2024-01-01? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will Villeneuve's DUNE part 2 receive a higher IMDB rating than DUNE part 1 by end of 2026? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will there be another pandemic before 2025? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will there be another pandemic before 2025? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will any US Supreme Court Justice go through a formal impeachment process by the end of 2024? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will the first successful implant of a 3D-printed heart be performed by 2025? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up? (2024 version) | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will Phil Murphy LOSE the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Phil Murphy WIN the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Elizabeth Warren LOSE the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Elizabeth Warren WIN the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will Amy Klobuchar LOSE the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Amy Klobuchar WIN the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will an AI that can win a tournament of Diplomacy (with white-press) as often as top human players in games against 6 human players exist by the end of 2030? | 0.96 | Manifold |
Will Paul Sztorc's BIP301 (blind merged mining) be implemented into bitcoin by Bitcoin Core before 2030? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will Walmart will issue a stablecoin before 2025? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Prince William be crowned King by the end of 2025? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will China Invade Taiwan before 2024? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Odessa fall before 2024? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will a sequel for Morbius release by 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Israel withdraw from the West Bank by 2050? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will Charles cease to be King of the UK by end of 2025? | 0.1 | Manifold |
If the SNP drops more than 20% within 3 weeks before 2024, will the % drop of Tesla be more than 1.5x of the % drop of Coke over the first 3 weeks of the afore-mentioned drop? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will someone other than Biden, Harris, Buttigieg, or Newsom receive the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Manifold allow betting on free response answers with all shares sold by the GUI by 2024? | 0.97 | Manifold |
Will this market get >=M$100,000 invested in it by 2025? | 1 | Manifold |
Will New Zealand have a codified constitution by 2030? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will New Zealand change its flag by 2030? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will Pete Buttigieg WIN the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will Pete Buttigieg LOSE the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will Kamala Harris LOSE the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Kamala Harris WIN the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will Gavin Newsom LOSE the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will Gavin Newsom WIN the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will Joe Biden LOSE the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will Joe Biden WIN the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will New Zealand become a republic by 2030? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will Jiang Zemin be alive before 2024? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will the reconstruction of Notre-Dame Cathedral be completed before the 2024 Olympics in Paris? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will changes to South Korea's mandatory military service be announced by the end of 2024? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will Dr. P resolve any market incorrectly before 2024? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Korean reunification be formally begun before 2025? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will Jamaica become a republic by 2024? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Australia announce a referendum on becoming a republic by 2024? | 0.04 | Manifold |
There will be no restrictions on Chinese citizens ability to access education or healthcare in any city with more than 10 million people based on rural Hukou by the end of 2025 | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will an interstellar mission to Alpha Centauri be launched by 2100? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will Artemis V launch by the end of 2028? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Artemis IV launch by the end of 2027? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Artemis III launch by the end of 2025? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will a Terrascope (a space telescope that uses a planet's atmosphere as a giant lens) launch and successfully perform observations by the end of 2042? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will Artemis II launch by the end of 2024? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will Liz Truss be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at the end of 2024? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will there be a successful asteroid deflection by 2050? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will all parts of Final Fantasy 7 Remake be released before 2028? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will the US Congress propose a Constitutional amendment by end of 2025? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will it be found out by 2052 that a human clone was created before September 5th, 2022, that lived for at least 9 months after conception? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s? | 0.41 | Manifold |
How much of the United State's energy will be produced by fossil fuels by 2040? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will SLS launch with a crew aboard by 2025? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Puerto Rico Statehood by 2028? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will China set up an economic blockade against Taiwan by restricting/blocking > 50% of Taiwanese maritime/ship-based trade by beginning of 2030? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will Steven N Austad win his bet against Jay Olshansky on whether there will be a 150 year old human by 2150? | 0.87 | Manifold |
How many miles of tunnels will exist in 2035? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will a human-created pathogen infect at least 10,000 people by 2030? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will there be another global pandemic before 2030? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will Manifold have at least 20 active users from China before 2024? | 0.89 | Manifold |
Will there be 51 or more U.S. states by the 2024 Presidential Election? | 0.02 | Manifold |
In 2030, will Wikipedia's article on Race and Intelligence still falsely claim the existence of a scientific consensus for 0% genetic causation? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will Chris Olah be known to be engaged by end of 2025? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will the UK economy start growing at more than 2% by 2024? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will TSA airport security checks still require people to take their shoes off in 2030? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will a real Mesa-Optimizer be found in a large AI model by the end of 2024? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will Tanium go public by 2024? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant be fully shut down at the end of 2025? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Conditional on there being a third movie in the Lego Movie series by 2030, will any of the songs mention a dead father? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will there be drama caused by Manifold employees' ability to create free M$ by the end of 2025? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will an "AI-drawn movie" have a rating >=8.0 on IMDB before 2025? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will an "AI-drawn movie" gross >=$100M before 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will the sale of new gas cars be illegal in Washington in 2035? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will the sale of new gas cars be illegal in California in 2035? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will "In God We Trust" be removed from the US dollar bill before 2030? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will there be a civil war in the United States before 2030? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will a spacecraft that plans to attempt a soft landing on Mercury launch by the end of 2030? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? (RW version) | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will Nina Turner run for president in 2024? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will John Boyega act in a Star Wars film before 2032? | 0.2 | Manifold |
new york university will refund a fraction of student's tuition by the end of 2024 for the online courses students took during the covid | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will Justin Amash run for President in 2024? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will Bernie Sanders run for President in 2024? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will extraterrestrial life be found by 2100? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support cash transfers before 2027? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support breastfeeding promotion before 2027? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will there be an "EA university" or similar institution by 31 December 2027? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will men be wearing tights or leggings (with or with out a cod piece) by 2030. | 0.16 | Manifold |
Did the Simpsons sorta correctly predict "A Gay President in 2084"? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.