text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will the US Supreme Court overturn gay marriage [Obergefell v. Hodges] before 2030? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will New Zealand become a republic by 2100? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Did the Simpsons correctly predict "A Gay President in 2084"? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Costa Rica legalize recreational marijuana by 2026? | 0.82 | Manifold |
K&A first-time parents in 2024? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Warner Brothers shut down DC Comics before 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Ethereum undergo a soft fork to exclude censorial Proof of Stake (PoS) validators before 2024? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Ethereum undergo a hard fork before 2024 due to U.S. Treasury sanctions? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Glenn Youngkin run for president in 2024? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will mRNA-4157 go to phase 3 by 2025? | 0.93 | Manifold |
Will Liz Cheney run for president in 2024? | 0.45 | Manifold |
By 2042, will the population of Anopheles gambiae be less than 1% of its current population, or will its range be less than 1% of its current range. | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will David Petraeus run for president in 2024? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will flatback posture be confirmed as the primary cause of schizophrenia by 2030?
| 0.06 | Manifold |
Will another Millennium Problem be resolved before the end of 2025? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will any Anti-Japanese protests take place in any certain city across China before 2024? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will John Stewart run for president in 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Before 2030, will any job not at QURI ask for squiggle proficiency? | 0.9 | Manifold |
Will mainstream science be using primarily Bayesian analysis by 2035? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will any image-generation AI be able to consistently draw simple polygons by the end of 2024? | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will image-generation AIs be able to consistently draw simple polygons by the end of 2024? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Magic: The Gathering still be being activly developed and printed in paper by the end of 2025? | 0.95 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump be eligible to run for president in 2024? | 0.95 | Manifold |
Will Francis X. Suarez run for the GOP nomination for president in 2024? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Conditional on Donald Trump being indicted before the 2024 presidential election, will he win said election? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will the US have a deadline in place to eliminate the minting of pennies by the end of 2026? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will someone successfully turn wood into a significant amount of human-digestible food by 2024? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will a vaccine for Lyme disease be available to the US public by the end of 2025? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will there be a new human moon landing by the end of 2025? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will China set up an economic blockade against Taiwan by restricting/blocking > 50% of Taiwanese maritime/ship-based trade by beginning of 2025? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will China set up an economic blockade against Taiwan by restricting/blocking > 50% of Taiwanese maritime/ship-based trade by 2024? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will the number of pirate attacks against ships worldwide be higher in 2026 than in 2021? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will BTC dominance go above 50% before 2025? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Who will be candidates in the Republican Primary for President (2024)? | 0.5 | Manifold |
If the US and Taiwan agree in principle to a new bilateral trade agreement by the end of 2024, will it be ratified in the US Senate within 12 months? | 0.98 | Manifold |
Will the US and Taiwan enter into a bilateral trade agreement by the end of 2024? | 0.95 | Manifold |
Will Manifold reach 500 daily users by 2024? | 0.97 | Manifold |
Will writing in the traditional East Asian writing direction be recommended as the best exercise for posture by at least fifteen physical therapists by 2024? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will Ted Cruz be a candidate for the GOP nomination for President of the United States in 2024? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Joe Biden seek a second term in 2024? | 0.98 | Manifold |
Will US regulators instruct Manifold to alter or cease activity before the end of 2024? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Max Clarke believe with ≥95% confidence that there exists AGI by Jul 2025? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will New Zealand change its name before 2024? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Kalshi have a real-money market on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will my theory of writing direction and shoulder function be accepted by at least fifteen scientists by the end of 2024? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 US presidential election be decided in the House of Representatives? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will my McVeighan brain famine theory be accepted by at least fifteen scientists by the end of 2024? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Manifold IPO by 2030? | 0.17 | Manifold |
How many votes will be cast in the 2024 Presidential election? | 0.5 | Manifold |
How many votes will Donald Trump get in 2024? | 0.88 | Manifold |
Will Taiwan hold a referendum on declaring independence from the mainland by the end of 2024? | 0.1 | Manifold |
In 2030, will there be at least 50,000 people in whatever the Neom project has evolved into by then? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will a tech CEO or founder run for President in the 2024 election? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Jeff Bezos run for President in the 2024 election? | 0.03 | Manifold |
In 2030, will Maldives Floating City be home to at least 2,000 people? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will the 28th amendment of the US Constitution be ratified by 2030? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will the US federal minimum wage be at least $15 an hour by the end of 2024? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Ireland lift its ban on producing energy by nuclear fission by 2024 | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will Iowa be the first contest held in the 2024 Republican party primary season? | 0.88 | Manifold |
Will Iowa be the first contest held in the 2024 Democratic party primary season? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will nyuu#5711 (me) and vara2096#9598 be dating at the end of October | 0.95 | Manifold |
When will Trump launch his 2024 presidential campaign (in months from August 2022)? | 0.15 | Manifold |
What price will 702 Broderick St #C, San Francisco, CA 94117 sell at? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will Deadpool-style oxygen deprivation chambers become common by 2032? | 0.45 | Manifold |
With the Catholic church allow artificial contraception before 2024? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will the presidential candidate from Andrew Yang et al's "Forward" party receive at least 1.5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will the presidential candidate from Andrew Yang et al's "Forward" party receive any electoral votes in the 2024 US presidential election? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will China's economy enter a recession by 2025? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will the WHO declare another Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2025? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will the International Space Station be functional and crewed in 2025? | 0.92 | Manifold |
Will "some rich businessperson or celebrity" impact the 2024 presidential election as a third party, according to Nate Silver's criteria? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Cruise Automation IPO by 2024? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will there be a robust third party movement in America that impacts the 2024 Presidential race? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will AGI cause the collapse of civilization before the end of 2025? 📎 | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will Elizabeth Warren run for president in 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
What will the population of NEOM be in 2030? | 0.43 | Manifold |
What will the population of NEOM be in 2030? | 0.04 | Manifold |
How many electoral votes will the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election have? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will Gavin Newsom run for president in 2024? | 0.1 | Manifold |
What % of the population of the US will be bicameral (by eye, horomone, and posture tests) by 2030? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will there be fewer than 2 Russian cosmonauts in the International Space Station crew in December 2025? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will USDT lose its peg permanently before 2024? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will winner of the 2024 Presidential election be a proponent of 2020 election fraud theories? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be either equal to or greater then 165 cm in height? | 0.94 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be either equal to or greater then 182 cm in height? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will FTX go public before 2024? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be born pre 1960 | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will winner of the 2024 Presidential election self-report as being vaccinated for COVID-19 | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will titanium dioxide be illegal to use as a food additive in the US by 2025? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will the UN add a new member state before 2030? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will an AI get bronze or silver on any International Math Olympiad by end of 2025? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will China control Taiwan in 2040? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Trump be running for president in 2024 as something other than the republican candidate? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Another Tory leadership contest before GE2024 | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will H.R. 7693 be signed into law? (National Park Foundation Reauthorization Act of 2022) | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will an mRNA vaccine for cancer be available by 2024? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will any US places successfully change states by 2030? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Would Biden win the US Presidency in 2024 if his opponent is DeSantis? | 0.54 | Manifold |
[Climate Change] How much global warming will we have by the end of 2024? | 0.24 | Manifold |
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