text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will any model pass an "undergrad proofs exam" Turing test by 2027? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will any agent perform better on Minecraft (or comparable open world game) after being fine-tuned on a manual by 2027? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will any language model trained without large number arithmetic be able to generalize to large number arithmetic by 2026? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will Helion achieve breakeven deuterium-helium-3 fusion before 2026? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will Helion achieve breakeven deuterium-tritium fusion before 2024? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Alex Hannold die in a climbing accident before 2030? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will Jon Stewart run for president in 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 US presidential election be stolen from the rightful victor? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Netanyahu again become the Israeli Prime Minister before 2024? | 0.97 | Manifold |
Will Putin be revealed to have severe illness by the end of 2024? | 0.36 | Manifold |
What will be the level of philanthropic funding for nuclear issues in 2025? | 0.61 | Manifold |
During the year 2027, will China implement a pandemic lockdown in a Tier 1 city comparable to 2022's lockdown? | 0.2 | Manifold |
How many papers will acknowledge Dagstuhl Seminar 22271 by 2024? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will a "pocket pardon" from a US president be revealed by end of 2024? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will a US state legislature refuse to recognise the popular vote winner in the state in the 2024 Presidential Election? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will the Collatz conjecture be resolved by the end of the decade (11:59, 31 December 2029)? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will a US semiconductor fab begin volume production of 3nm chips by 2024? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will Turkey have an economic collapse by 2024? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach the threshold for activation by the 2028 election? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach the threshold for activation by the 2024 election? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will inter-racial marriage be banned in any US state by 2030? | 0.01 | Manifold |
How good will the best published polygenic score be for intelligence in 2026? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will an anti-discrimination law be enacted to protect U.S. federal employees who have been genetically-edited or screened as embryos by 2100? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will the Supreme Court overturn any of Griswold, Lawrence, or Obergefell by 2040? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will Ron DeSantis be the 2024 Republican presidential nominee? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Próspera (charter city) be officially shut down before 2025? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will my neighbor Gail's house go up for sale before 2025? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will the US government undergo significant, large scale decline by 2050? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will the US government expierence significant, large scale decline by 2050? | 0.97 | Manifold |
Will there be any new EA billionaires by 2027? | 0.9 | Manifold |
Will Julian Assange spend spend over three days in solitary confinement before 2024? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will any transfer learning model, trained for any amount of time on one Atari environment, outperform the median human learning curve on most other Atari environments when transferred by 2026? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will most cucumbers in Canada be produced without being wrapped in plastics by the end of 2026? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will the UN have more or less than 193 member states in 2030? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will the WHO declare another Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will the USD to (Colombian Peso) COP exchange rate be > 4000 by the end of 2022? | 0.94 | Manifold |
Will the US Government repeal the US Constitution before 2100? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will ITER create first plasma before the end of 2025? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will the WHO declare another pandemic before 2030? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will air quality in Los Angeles improve by 2037? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will there be a Scottish independence referendum by 2024? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Conditional on being nominated by the Republican party, will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election? | 0.37 | Manifold |
What will U.S. Federal spending be as a percentage of GDP in 2030? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will "Last Week Tonight with John Oliver" release a segment on AI safety before 2024? | 0.93 | Manifold |
Will Scotland leave the UK by 2030? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk shut down Twitter by end of 2027? (conditioned on deal closing) | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will "Last Week Tonight with John Oliver" release a segment on AI safety before 2024? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Tesla have robots for sale by the end of 2025? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will the U.S. get 5% of its energy from solar before 2025? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will there be a Charter City by 2030? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will the Hetchy Hetchy aqueducts be significantly sabotaged by Dec. 2030? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will a popular yes/no market have at least M$5000 liquidity pool at end of June? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will the 5 year survival rate of glioblastoma (GBM) exceed 10% by June 18 2032? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will Holly Elmore be cancelled by 2025 | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will at least 7 of the new Effective Altruism university groups in the Netherlands still be active in June 2024? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will diarrheal diseases be among the top 5 causes of death in children under five years old in 2025? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will Mike Pence run for President in 2024? | 1 | Manifold |
Will the United Methodist Church Book of Discipline allow pastors to be “self-avowed, practicing homosexuals" in 2024? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will Apple find a way to not use USB C in their phones post autumn 2024 | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Trump announce his 2024 presidential campaign by the end of 2022? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will Ron DeSantis run for President in 2024? | 1 | Manifold |
Will there be a space station with artificial gravity by June 2026? | 0.05 | Manifold |
If Trump is elected President in 2024, will he have won the popular vote? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Kamala Harris run for President in 2024? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Amazon have a broadly available drone delivery service in the US by June 2025? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will a supersonic plane fly commercial passengers by 2030? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk step down from being Tesla CEO before 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will any Satoshi coins be moved by 2025? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Bitcoin be at least $30000 at 11:59 on Wed Jun 8 | 0.92 | Manifold |
In September, what will be the community prediction for "Human/Machine Intelligence Parity by 2040" | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will California AB 2097 "Residential and commercial development: parking requirements" pass in the 2022 legislative session? | 0.98 | Manifold |
Will EHarding's market "Will any Democratic state legalize school shootings by the end of 2032?" resolve accurately? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will California AB 2221 "Accessory dwelling units" pass in the 2022 legislative session? | 0.85 | Manifold |
In September, what probability will Trump have of winning the 2024 US Presidency on ElectionBettingOdds? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will any Democratic state legalize school shootings by the end of 2032? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump win a Nobel Prize before 2030? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will Thomas Kwa graduate by 2025 | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power before 2050? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will 10-year treasury yields in 2032 be higher than 3.5%? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will there be a Morbius 2 officially announced before 2025? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will bitcoin be at least $30000 at 11:59 on Wed Jun 1 | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will China's nominal GDP exceed the U.S.'s before 2040? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will Alphabet close the week above $2100? | 0.98 | Manifold |
If Joe Biden runs for president in 2024, will 5 or more Democrats appear on a primary presidential debate stage? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will meat be banned in the UK by 2030? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump be the Republican presidential nominee for 2024? | 0.74 | Manifold |
If Donald Trump runs for President in 2024, will 7 or more Republican candidates appear in at least one televised Presidential Primary Debate? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will Adam Kinzinger run for president in 2024? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will humans land on mars by 2028? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will NASA land a person on the moon before 2026? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will the European Union have an official army by 2024? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Bitcoin be at least $30000 at 11:59pm Wed May 25? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will anonymous3141 get a first in first year maths at cambridge? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will Manifold surpass Metaculus in DAUs by 2025? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk have been on at least one date with Kim Kardashian by 2030? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Bitcoin be at least $29000 at 11:59pm Friday May 20 | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will ev battery swapping stations exist in the US by 2024? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will 538's 2024 Presidential Election model change by at least 10 percentage points, start to finish? | 0.76 | Manifold |
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