text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will the UK reinstate any COVID-related entry requirements before 2025? | 0.11 | Manifold |
test 4.8584957894587398755484 | 1 | Manifold |
Will BTC be at least $30000 at 11:59pm Wednesday 5/18 | 0.01 | Manifold |
A startup in a programming language derived from homotopy type theory raises $10M by 2030 | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will a startup in a programming language derived from homotopy type theory raise $10M by 2035? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Russia conduct significant military operations against Sweden or Finland before 2024? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Denmark reinstate any COVID-related entry requirements before 2025? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Amazon spin off AWS by the end of 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will there be a mass-produced reversible computer on the market by 2032? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will there be a new trillion-dollar company before 2025? | 1 | Manifold |
Will organ transplant in humans using modified animal organs or chimeras be successful by 2030? | 0.9 | Manifold |
Will the median prediction for Metaculus' General AI forecast be earlier than June 2027 at the end of 2022? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will SpaceX IPO before 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Bitcoin be at least $30000 at 11:59pm Monday May 16th | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will any more of Liber Primus (Cicada 3301) be solved by the end of 2022? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will the Discord explicit content filter be at least 95% accurate in identifying 3D female nudes by the end of 2032? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will there be fewer than 500 000 malaria deaths worldwide in 2025? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will CPython still have a global interpreter lock in 2030 | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will AMZN stock go over $3000 in value at anytime before July 1st? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Ireland be invaded by the UK before 2030 in the event of a Sinn Fein Taoiseach in next elections | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will people care about prediction markets by 2025? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will Joe Biden run for President in 2024? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will @PradyuPrasad have 5000+ followers by the end of 2022? | 0.98 | Manifold |
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024? | 0.93 | Manifold |
Will the US institute a national ban on abortion anytime before 2035? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will an electric vehicle containing a Sila Nanotechnologies >10% silicon anode be commercially available by the end of 2025? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Cannabis be decriminalised in the UK before 2025 | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will a hierarchical RL algorithm be SOTA on any major RL benchmark by 2025? | 0.38 | Manifold |
If Elon Musk buys Twitter, will its revenue quintuple by 2028? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will Roe v. Wade be federally codified by 2032-05-06? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump run for President in 2024? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will Obergefell v Hodges be completely or substantially repealed before 2025? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will the S&P 500 surpass it's intraday all-time high of 4,818.62 before 2024? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will there be a widely commercially available Cryonics provider that is using aldehyde-stabilized brain preservation protocol by 2025? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will same-sex marriage be federally guaranteed in the US for all of now through 2026? | 0.89 | Manifold |
Will Apple allocate at least 0.1% of their balance sheet in Bitcoin by end of 2025? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will there be QuantumScape batteries in VW vehicles by 2024? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Moderna's mRNA CMV vaccine be approved by 2024? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Moderna's mRNA vaccine for EBV be approved by 2025 | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will we have a formalized proof of Fermat's last theorem by 2029-05-01? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will there be smart contract bounties for formalized mathematics on a blockchain before May 2024 | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will Jack Sandor vote for Ivanka Trump in 2032? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will Michael Sherwood pass the New York bar exam by the end of 2025? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will anyone get more than 10% in the 2024 Iowa caucuses against Trump? | 0.9 | Manifold |
Will any of the following companies: Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Twitter, Netflix, or Tesla, start accepting stable-coins as payment for their main products by the end of 2024? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Joe Biden will step down as president before the 2024 presidential election results. | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Michael Nielsen have kids by 2035? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will Jen Psaki be the 2024 Democratic nominee for president? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will Arnav Shah win EITHER an Emergent Ventures or Thiel Fellowship by 2028? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will Scott Alexander produce BABBY by 2031? | 0.92 | Manifold |
Will anyone from the Summer Program for Applied Rationality (SPARC) program win a Thiel Fellowship by 2026? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will Amy Li (https://twitter.com/amyli0) from TOPS/TKS win an Emergent Ventures grant by the end of 2025? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will Laura Gao (lauragao.ca) win an emergent ventures grant by the end of 2025? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Mike Lustgarten take rapamycin and finally post a YouTube video showing his Phenoage response to rapamycin by the end of 2026? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Mike Lustgarten start to regularly ANY of {rapamycin, metformin, acarbose, SGLT2 inhibitors) by the end of 2027? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will Morgan Levine start to regularly ANY of {rapamycin, metformin, acarbose, SGLT2 inhibitors) by the end of 2027? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will any past/current student from the University of Washington Robinson Center (University of Washington early entrance program & UW Academy for Young Scholars) win a Thiel Fellowship OR an Emergent Ventures grant by the end of 2027? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will David Sinclair have a GrimAge clock that is more than 7 years younger than his chronological age at any point before 2026? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will David Sinclair be regularly taking a SGLT2 inhibitor (canagliflozin, empagliflozin) by the end of 2025? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will Carol Chen still be at cohere.ai by the end of 2024? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will a study show that the combination of parabiosis + genetic reprogramming will improve lifespan more than either intervention alone by 2035? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will Erez Lieberman Aiden still be at the Baylor College of Medicine by 2026:? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will there be a marriage between a TKS'er and a Thiel Fellow sometime before 2030? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will Napoleon's corpse be exhumed *and* still be mummified/be shown to not have decomposed to his bones sometime by 2050? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Boston have a year warmer than 56F by 2030? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will Massachusetts decriminalize psilocybin before 2026? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will HeavenGames (heavengames.com) still exist as a site in 2030? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will Lada Nuzhna have taken over 1 gram of rapamycin (cumulatively) by the beginning of 2027? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will Jose Luis Ricon get married AND create a new babby by 2035? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will Lada Nuzhna have a higher google search volume than Laura Deming by 2030? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Age of Empires 2 (AOE2) release an expansion that includes EITHER the Armenians or Georgians (or both) by 2025? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will Aubrey de Grey be re-instated in SOME role by SENS by 2025? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will Washington state decriminalize ALL psychedelics by 2026? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will "World War 3" have begun by 2025? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Hunter Biden be indicted before Nov 5, 2024? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk smoke weed again before 4:20pm 4/20/2024 | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Matthew and Tamay win their bet on longer AI timelines by 2030? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Matthew and Tamay win their bet on longer AI timelines by 2026? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | 1 | Manifold |
If Pete Buttigieg becomes the Democratic nominee, will he win the 2024 election? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will Great Britain and Northern Ireland abolish its monarchy before 2030? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will it cost less than 100k USD to train and run a language model that outperforms GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks by the end 2024? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will a single model achieve superhuman performance on all OpenAI gym environments by 2025? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will a single model achieve superhuman performance on all Atari environments by 2025? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will at least 25,000 Russian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? | 0.93 | Manifold |
Will at least 50,000 Russian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? | 0.96 | Manifold |
Will at least 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will at least 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will at least 50,000 Ukrainian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? | 0.95 | Manifold |
Will at least 100,000 Russian soldiers be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will Levy Rozman (GothamChess) become a certified GM by the end of 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
P != NP (will it be proven by April 2027) | 0.06 | Manifold |
P = NP (will it be proven by April 2027) | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will the contaminant hypothesis of modern obesity be judged true by expert consensus before 2032? | 0.09 | Manifold |
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