text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will Caltech accept at least 10 students from its first-year undergraduate applicant waitlist for the Class of 2026? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major city before 2030? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will Russian Orthodox church officially switch from worshiping Jesus to some other deity before 2025? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will the contaminant hypothesis of modern obesity be judged true by expert consensus before 2025? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will "Mana Replenished" be below M$ 40000? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Amazon stock price drop below 3000 by closing time today? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will DearMoon launch in 2024 (1 year behind scheduled date of 2023) | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will a territory with over 10 million people cease to be part of Russia by 2025? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will a territory with over 1 million people cease to be part of Russia by 2025? | 0.16 | Manifold |
A market for the public impact of charities exists by 2025 | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will Roman Empire produce more than 10% of world GDP in 2100? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Australia host or co-host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Manifold allow links to be embedded before 2024? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Yusef question about Dwayne Johnson be resolved correctly? (one about winning 2024 US Presidential Election) [CFMM market] | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 Presidential Election winner of attempted or advocated for overturning the results of 2020 Presidential election? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be a self-described socialist | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will a prior or current Congress person, a white house/cabinet official/high ranking Government official, or a high ranking national party(DNC or RNC) official win the 2024 election. | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will the United States elect it's first LGBTQ+ President in 2024 | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will most Boston public school kids be wearing facemasks in school in 2025? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine by 2024? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will the United State elect it's first woman President in 2024 | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be White? | 0.91 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be born post 1980 | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will global average temperatures in 2100 increase by at least 2.7°C (IPCC SSP2-4.5) when compared to the average climate of 1850-1900? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will global average temperatures in 2050 increase by at least 2.0°C (IPCC SSP2-4.5) when compared to the average climate of 1850-1900? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will Yusef question about Dwayne Johnson be resolved correctly? (one about winning 2024 US Presidential Election) | 0.15 | Manifold |
Elon Musk will have fathered at least 10 children by 2030 | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will a neurosteroid except Zuranolone get FDA approval for a psychiatric indication until until 2027-03-08? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will Zuranolone get FDA approval for some condition other than major or postpartum depression until 2027-03-08? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Zuranolone gets FDA approval for postpartum depression until 2027-03-08? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will Zuranolone get FDA approval for major depression until 2027-03-08? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will real money prediction markets become legal in the US by the end of 2025? | 0.26 | Manifold |
At any point before the end of the calendar year 2025, will the CDC or another credible source report that at least 70,000 people die annually from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump be elected President in 2024? | 0.82 | Manifold |
Will total US military expenditure top its all-time high by 2024? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine by 2024? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Sweden join NATO before 2024? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will Finland join NATO before 2024? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine join the European Union by 2024? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Medvedchuk become the president of Ukraine before 2024? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024? | 0.02 | Manifold |
In 2040, will Holden Karnofsky think that donating Open Philanthropy's money so quickly was a tragic mistake? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will Russian troops invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia prior to 2024? | 0.02 | Manifold |
By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will Russia invade any NATO country before the end of 2030? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Russia invade Poland before the end of 2030? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will there be another pandemic with as much impact on the world as SARS-CoV-2 by the end of 2029? | 0.37 | Manifold |
The Vessel with IMO: 8203660, MMSI: 620558000 will reach its destination at Reni, Ukraine in the next week. | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Putin still president on June 1, 2024. Note that the 2024 Russia Presidential election is scheduled for March 17 and the inauguration for May 7. | 0.77 | Manifold |
If Russia does NOT annex Ukraine before 2024, will Ukraine's 2030 real GDP be over 180bn USD (in 2020 US dollars)? | 0.44 | Manifold |
If Russia annexes Ukraine before 2024, will Ukraine's 2030 real GDP be over 180bn USD (in 2020 US dollars)? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Andrew Yang run for President in 2024? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Altos Labs trial an anti-aging intervention in humans by 2030? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will the losing candidate in the 2024 presidential election refuse to concede defeat? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically before 2040? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk run for president in 2024? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will a machine learning model score above 50.0% on the MATH dataset before 2025? | 0.97 | Manifold |
Will a machine learning model score above 50.0% on the MATH dataset before 2025? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will there be a mobile consumer robot with an arm by 31st December 2024? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win the White House in 2024? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will my spouse retire by Sep 1, 20275 | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will John McGuire IPO his startup by 2030? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will at least 10 world cities have a generally available self-driving taxi service by 2025? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will my primary grace and I get married by 2024? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will gross world product in the year 2030 be at least 1 quadrillion USD? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100 | 0.32 | Manifold |
4. Will PredictIt think Donald Trump is the most likely 2024 GOP nominee by the end of 2022? | 0.03 | Manifold |
3. Will PredictIt think Joe Biden is the most likely 2024 Dem nominee by the end of 2022? | 0.98 | Manifold |
Will a trans female athlete win an Olympic gold medal in any women's game category in 2024? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Games Workshop produce multicoloured miniatures with rules to use them in any of their mainline games (Warhammer 40000 / Age of Sigmar) by 01/01/2026? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will anyone get married after first meeting in person at vibecamp #1? Resolves 2030. | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will a trans female athlete win an Olympic medal (any class) in any women's game category in 2024? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will AOC run for President by 2040? | 0.48 | Manifold |
If Kamala Harris becomes the Democratic nominee, will she win the 2024 election? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Finland be an official member of NATO by 2025? | 1 | Manifold |
Will Sweden be an official member of NATO by 2025? | 0.92 | Manifold |
Will Austria be an official member of NATO by 2025? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Ireland be an official member of NATO by 2025? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Cyprus be an official member of NATO by 2025? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Malta be an official member of NATO by 2025? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine be an official member of NATO by 2025? | 0.17 | Manifold |
If Joe Biden becomes the Democratic nominee, will he win the 2024 election? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will Bernie Sanders seek the Democratic Party's nomination for president in 2024? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will Starlink IPO by the end 2027? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will Starlink IPO by the end 2026? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will Starlink IPO by the end 2025? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will Starlink IPO by the end 2024? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will there be US Constitutional reform by 2027? | 0.16 | Manifold |
For AR, will passthrough optics dominate the consumer market (versus transparent optics) by EOY 2024 | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will the value of Bitcoin pass 100k USD by the end of 2024? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Jen Psaki Will Win the 2024 United States Presidential Election | 0.01 | Manifold |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.