text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
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Tulsi Gabbard Will Win the 2024 United States Presidential Election | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will Chinese economic growth drop below the upper middle-income GDP growth average in any year before 2031? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will 2060, globally, be warmer than 2010? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Hillary Clinton signals in any way she might run for president in 2024 | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2024 Democratic nominee? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will the S&P 500 trade below 3800 in 2022? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will sports still matter a lot to the average American in 2040? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will Dwayne Johnson win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will the runner-up in the 2024 US Presidential Election accept their defeat by Dec 31, 2024? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Ethereum ETF approved by May 31? This market will resolve to "Yes" if any spot Ethereum ETF receives approval from the SEC by May 31, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the SEC, however a consensus of credible report... | 0.16 | Polymarket |
Republican VP nominee? This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tim Scott wins the 2024 Republican nomination for Vice President of the United States. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com.
Any replacem... | 0.22 | Polymarket |
Presidential Election Popular Vote Winner 2024 This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joe Biden is the candidate who receives the most votes in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
In case of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the candidate whose last name comes first... | 0.64 | Polymarket |
Democratic Nominee 2024 This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joe Biden wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any... | 0.88 | Polymarket |
Wisconsin Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Wisconsin in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or ha... | 0.5 | Polymarket |
Fed Interest Rates: May 2024 The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if following the Federal Reserve's April/M... | 0.02 | Polymarket |
Electoral College Margin of Victory in Presidential Election? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the republican-nominated candidate for the 2024 US presidential election wins by 215 or more electoral college votes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus o... | 0.04 | Polymarket |
Pennsylvania Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Pennsylvania in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee,... | 0.56 | Polymarket |
COVID lab leak confirmed by US in 2024? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency (e.g. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, CDC, NIH, etc.) definitively states that ... | 0.12 | Polymarket |
Georgia Presidential Election Winner Georgia Presidential Election Winner | 0.41 | Polymarket |
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin (BTC) reaches a price of 250,000 or greater according to Binance by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the 30-min candlestick high prices from Binance (ht... | 0.12 | Polymarket |
What price will $BTC reach in April? This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) between April 1, 2024, 00:00 and April 30, 2024, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price of $75,000.00 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution... | 0.68 | Polymarket |
Wyoming Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in Wyoming in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ... | 0.91 | Polymarket |
North Carolina Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in North Carolina in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nomi... | 0.7 | Polymarket |
South Dakota Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in South Dakota in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee,... | 0.92 | Polymarket |
New York Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in New York in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has ... | 0.91 | Polymarket |
Trump jail before election day? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump spends at least 48 consecutive hours in custody in a jail or prison between January 5 and November 5, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official informat... | 0.15 | Polymarket |
Montana Senate Election Winner United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. Regular senate elections are presently scheduled for 33 states.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the candidate who wins the 2024 Montana US Senate election is a Democrat. Otherwise, this market will reso... | 0.5 | Polymarket |
Airdrops by June 30? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Aleo launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between February 13, 2024 and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to... | 0.21 | Polymarket |
North Dakota Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in North Dakota in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee,... | 0.08 | Polymarket |
[Single Markets] Republican Nominee 2024 This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald J. Trump wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.co... | 0.92 | Polymarket |
Massachusetts Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Massachusetts in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nomine... | 0.91 | Polymarket |
Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election? The 2024 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.
This market will resolve to yes if Democratic candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2024 election.
The main resolution sources for this market will be (... | 0.48 | Polymarket |
Fed rate cut by...? This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 6, 2023 ET and May 1, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market may not resolve to "No" until May 1, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET has passed.
The primar... | 0.05 | Polymarket |
Maine Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Maine in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ball... | 0.88 | Polymarket |
Will Ethereum hit $15k in 2024? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ethereum (ETH) reaches a price of 15,000 or greater according to Binance by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the 30-min candlestick high prices from Binance (ht... | 0.14 | Polymarket |
NBA Champion This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Boston Celtics win the 2023-2024 NBA Championship. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "No" immediately if it becomes impossible for this team to become 2023-24 NBA Champion.
The resolution source for this market will be inform... | 0.32 | Polymarket |
New Hampshire Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in New Hampshire in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nomine... | 0.84 | Polymarket |
Vermont Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Vermont in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ... | 0.91 | Polymarket |
Virginia Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Virginia in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has ... | 0.88 | Polymarket |
Will 2024 have the hottest March on record? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2024 shows an increase of 1.37°C or greater when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An anomaly of 1.37°C or greater for March 2024 is necessary and s... | 0.69 | Polymarket |
Utah Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Utah in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot... | 0.91 | Polymarket |
Connecticut Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Connecticut in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, o... | 0.91 | Polymarket |
Kentucky Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in Kentucky in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has ... | 0.91 | Polymarket |
Gas price per blob 1 month after EIP-4844? Ethereum Improvement Proposal 4844 (or “proto-danksharding”) is a major step toward scaling Ethereum. It lowers the cost of posting L2 rollup data to the Ethereum mainnet via “blobs” (see https://consensys.io/blog/ethereum-evolved-dencun-upgrade-part-5-eip-4844). There has bee... | 0.42 | Polymarket |
Florida Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in Florida in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ... | 0.83 | Polymarket |
Texas Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Texas in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ball... | 0.11 | Polymarket |
Illinois Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Illinois in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has ... | 0.91 | Polymarket |
West Virginia Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in West Virginia in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nomine... | 0.06 | Polymarket |
Trump's best state on March 19? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Arizona has the highest margin of victory for Donald J. Trump in the March 19, Republican Primaries among the states participating. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The margin for this market group is defined using only votes for Trump an... | 0.01 | Polymarket |
NCAA March Madness Winner This market will resolve to “Yes” if the University of Connecticut wins the 2024 NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this team is eliminated based on the rules of the NCAA tournament, this market may be immediately resolved to "No".
Th... | 0.72 | Polymarket |
Minnesota Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Minnesota in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or ha... | 0.84 | Polymarket |
Dune: Part Two' Total Domestic Box Office The market will resolve to "Yes" if ‘Dune: Part Two' (2024) grosses between $250,000,000 (inclusive) and 300,000,000 (inclusive) domestically through May 15, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source is Box Office Mojo. Specifically the "To Date"... | 0.93 | Polymarket |
When will Trump announce VP pick? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump announces his pick for his running mate as Vice President of the United States between April 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and April 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the f... | 0.01 | Polymarket |
Will Trump be Speaker by May 1? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump is Speaker of the House in the US Congress for any length of time by May 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" once the end date has passed and Trump has not been Speak... | 0.01 | Polymarket |
Ethena crash in 2024? This market will resolve to “Yes” Ethena USDe is below 90 cents for a period of 12 hours or more in 2024. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
CoinGecko 30 minute candles for Ethena USDe will be used, for candles between April 1 and December 31, 2024 in the ET timezone. For this market to ... | 0.16 | Polymarket |
First place in California Senate Primary? Update: This market refers to the vote for the full six-year senate-term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Adam Schiff gets first place in the Primary for United States Senator from California. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
First place means getting the mos... | 0.99 | Polymarket |
Ethereum above $3,500 on April 12? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETHUSDT 12 Apr '24 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) has a final “Close” price of 3,500.01 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH... | 0.35 | Polymarket |
Eurovision Winner? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ukrainian candidate for Eurovision 2024 wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If at any point it can be definitively determined that it is impossible for this candidate to win Eurovision 2024, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
If no ... | 0.1 | Polymarket |
Louisiana Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Republician candidate wins the popular vote in Louisiana in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or h... | 0.91 | Polymarket |
Alabama Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in Alabama in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ... | 0.91 | Polymarket |
Will Ukraine join NATO in 2024? If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.i... | 0.08 | Polymarket |
Republican Nominee 2024 This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald J. Trump wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com.
Any replaceme... | 0.92 | Polymarket |
Arizona Senate Election Winner United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. Regular senate elections are presently scheduled for 33 states.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the candidate who wins the 2024 Arizona US Senate election is a Democrat. Otherwise, this market will reso... | 0.64 | Polymarket |
Bitcoin all time high in April? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin (BTC) reaches a price greater than 73,777.00 for the first time according to Binance's candlestick prices before May 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the 30-min c... | 0.65 | Polymarket |
Highest grossing movie in 2024? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'Despicable Me 4' (2024) as the film with the highest 2024 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No... | 0.3 | Polymarket |
House control after 2024 election? The 2024 United States House elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with all 435 seats in the House being contested.
This market will resolve to "Democratic" if following the 2024 U.S. House elections, the majority of voting House members are Democrats. It will resolve to "Repub... | 0.55 | Polymarket |
Washington Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Washington in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or ... | 0.91 | Polymarket |
NBA MVP This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nikola Jokic is awarded the 2024 NBA Most Valuable Player (MVP) Award. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nikola Jokic is not announced as a finalist for the 2023-24 NBA MVP award, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for... | 0.95 | Polymarket |
Montana Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Montana in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ... | 0.09 | Polymarket |
Idaho Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Idaho in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ball... | 0.08 | Polymarket |
Bitcoin above $70,000 on April 12? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTCUSDT 12 Apr '24 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) has a final “Close” price of 70,000.01 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BT... | 0.51 | Polymarket |
$SAFE Market Cap (FDV) one week after launch? Safe, previously known as Gnosis Safe, secures over $100 billion in assets and is set to potentially make its token transferable as soon as April 23 (see https://forum.safe.global/t/draft-unpause-safe-token-contract-enabling-transferability/4892).
This market will resolve ... | 0.06 | Polymarket |
Hawaii Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Hawaii in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ba... | 0.91 | Polymarket |
Iran response to Israel by Monday? On April 1, 2024, it was reported Israel bombed an Iranian consulate in Syria, killing a senior commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps. Iran promised a "decisive response".
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an Iranian response to Israel's bombing of the Iranian co... | 0.09 | Polymarket |
[Single Markets] Democratic Nominee 2024 This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joe Biden wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://dem... | 0.87 | Polymarket |
When will Port of Baltimore reopen? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Port of Baltimore officially reopens at any point between April 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2024 11:59 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "reopening" refers to the actual resumption of port activities and not merely announcements o... | 0.2 | Polymarket |
When will GPT-5 be announced? This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI announces the completion of ChatGPT-5 and/or GPT-5 between April 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only official publicly issued communications from OpenAI will count towards this ... | 0.16 | Polymarket |
Indiana Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Indiana in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ... | 0.08 | Polymarket |
New Jersey Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in New Jersey in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or ... | 0.91 | Polymarket |
Next James Bond actor? This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aaron Taylor-Johnson is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, rega... | 0.7 | Polymarket |
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Coinbase 1 minute candle for bitcoin BTC-USD between 1 Jan '24 00:00 and 31 Dec '24 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price of 100,000.00 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this... | 0.46 | Polymarket |
Nevada Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Nevada in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ba... | 0.51 | Polymarket |
Oklahoma Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Oklahoma in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has ... | 0.08 | Polymarket |
Champions League Winner The 2023–24 UEFA Champions League is the 69th season of Europe's premier club football tournament organized by UEFA.
The final is scheduled to be played on June 1, 2024 at the Wembley Stadium in London, England.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Man City wins the 2023-24 UEFA Champions Leag... | 0.33 | Polymarket |
Alaska Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Alaska in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ba... | 0.09 | Polymarket |
Will George Santos start an OnlyFans by April 12? This market will resolve to "Yes" if ex-congressman George Santos starts an OnlyFans page featuring himself by April 12, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If he starts an Onlyfans page but doesn't have any posts yet it will still suffice t... | 0.07 | Polymarket |
TikTok banned in the US by June 30? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the TikTok app is banned for download and/or use by the majority of Americans in the United States by June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from ... | 0.03 | Polymarket |
How many Fed rate cuts this year? The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there no rate cuts by the Fed'... | 0.14 | Polymarket |
Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) one day after launch? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Eigenlayer's token is less than $10,000,000,000 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."
For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be consi... | 0.08 | Polymarket |
Aleo airdrop by April? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Aleo launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop by April 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to ... | 0.03 | Polymarket |
Trump and Biden debate before Election? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump and Joe Biden engage in a live, publicly-broadcast debate for 2024 US presidential election candidates by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both in-person debates and virtual debates will... | 0.76 | Polymarket |
Texas Senate Election Winner United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. Regular senate elections are presently scheduled for 33 states.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the candidate who wins the 2024 Texas US Senate election is a Democrat. Otherwise, this market will resolve ... | 0.15 | Polymarket |
Rhode Island Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Rhode Island in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee,... | 0.91 | Polymarket |
LayerZero airdrop by April? This market will resolve to "Yes" if LayerZero launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop by April 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this ... | 0.03 | Polymarket |
FIDE Candidates 2024 Winner The FIDE Candidates 2024 tournament is scheduled to take place April 3-23 in Toronto, Canada. You can read more about it here: https://candidates2024.fide.com/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Fabiano Caruana wins the FIDE Candidates 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
I... | 0.38 | Polymarket |
Will Trump tweet again by June 1? This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/tweets again, between March 27, 12 PM ET and June 1, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, all quote and reply posts/tweets count toward a "Yes" resolution, but reposts/ret... | 0.11 | Polymarket |
Wormhole Market Cap (FDV) one week after airdrop? On Feb 7 Wormhole announced an upcoming token, and distribution/airdrop plan for it (see https://wormhole.com/wormhole-w-tokenomics/): "The Community has been allocated 17% of the token supply... 11% of this allocation will be unlocked at TGE and will be distributed dur... | 0.01 | Polymarket |
Kansas Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Kansas in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ba... | 0.08 | Polymarket |
Joe Biden impeached before 2024 election? If the House of Representatives of the United States approves articles of impeachment against the President of the United States before November 5, 2024, this market will resolve “Yes”, otherwise this market will resolve "No".
If President Joseph Biden for any reason ceases to... | 0.07 | Polymarket |
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