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Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? This is a market on whether the market capitalization of $USDC (USD Coin) will surpass that of $USDT (Tether) within this market's timeframe, according to CoinGecko. This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at h... | 0.05 | Polymarket |
Will Bronny James be drafted? This market will resolve to “Yes” if LeBron "Bronny" James Jr. is drafted in the 2024 NBA Draft. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA, or announcements from specific NBA teams, however a consen... | 0.39 | Polymarket |
Will the US ban sharing deepfake nudes in 2024? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government bans sharing sexually explicit deepfakes, defined as sexually explicit images generated by AI without the subject's consent, by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to... | 0.25 | Polymarket |
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by...? This market will resolve to "Yes" if a nuclear weapon detonates anywhere in the world between December 27, 2023, and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon... | 0.07 | Polymarket |
Will America ban Zyn in 2024? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government bans Zyn nicotine pouches from sale or purchase within the US by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official informatio... | 0.11 | Polymarket |
Young Thug found guilty of racketeering? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jeffery Williams (Young Thug) is found guilty of the charge of "Conspiracy to violate the racketeer influenced and corrupt organizations act O.C.G.A. §16-14-4(C)" in his ongoing Fulton Superior Court trial. Otherwise, this market will resolve... | 0.51 | Polymarket |
Who's out first: Benjamin Netanyahu or Yahya Sinwar? This market will resolve to the name of the leader who leaves/is removed from power first.
This market will resolve to "Netanyahu" if Benjamin Netanyahu is out as the Prime Minister of Israel before Yahya Sinwar is out as leader of Hamas. This market will resolve to... | 0.33 | Polymarket |
OpenAI settlement with Elon Musk before July? On February 29, 2024, Elon Musk filed suit against OpenAI and Sam Altman, alleging the company had abandoned its initial mission in pursuit of profit. You can view a copy of the initial filing here: https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/musk-v-altman-ope... | 0.09 | Polymarket |
Ethereum all time high in 2024? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ethereum (ETH) reaches a price greater than $4,891.70 according to Binance by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the 30-min candlestick high prices from Binance (... | 0.6 | Polymarket |
Bill Belichick next team? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bill Belichick is announced as head coach for the Atlanta Falcons before any other NFL team for the 2024-25 NFL season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Bill Belichick is announced as head coach for any other NFL team or doesn't sign to head... | 0.01 | Polymarket |
When will Satoshi's identity be proven? This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is/are definitively proven between April 1, 2024, and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The resolution source for this m... | 0.03 | Polymarket |
Blast/Blur buys OpenSea by April 30? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Blast/Blur and/or their official representative(s) announce that they have bought OpenSea by April 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be announcements by Blast/B... | 0.04 | Polymarket |
KuCoin Insolvent before May? This market will resolve to "Yes" if official information released by KuCoin, official representatives of KuCoin (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by April 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET that KuCoin is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety ... | 0.03 | Polymarket |
More border encounters in March vs. Feb? This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are more Southwest border encounters in Mar 2024 compared to Feb 2024 (see https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
This market will resolve based on the first r... | 0.37 | Polymarket |
Will Kraken IPO by June? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kraken completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by Kraken to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
If ... | 0.09 | Polymarket |
Tether Insolvent in 2024? This market will resolve to "Yes" if official information released by Tether Limited Inc., official representatives of Tether Limited Inc. (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET that Tether Limited Inc. is insolvent ... | 0.08 | Polymarket |
Missouri Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Missouri in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has ... | 0.1 | Polymarket |
Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson: Who will win? The boxing match between Jake Paul and Mike Tyson has been scheduled for Saturday, July 20, 2024 at the AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jake Paul is officially declared the winner of the boxing match against Mike Tyson. Otherwise, this mark... | 0.31 | Polymarket |
Will Girona win La Liga 2023-24? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Girona wins the La Liga 2023-24 season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from La Liga (e.g. https://www.laliga.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting wi... | 0.01 | Polymarket |
Will NH be the first primary in 2024 Dem. nomination? This market will resolve to "Yes" if New Hampshire holds the first US Democratic primary for the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Caucuses, conventions, and "beauty contest" primaries where no delegates will be selected or... | 0.48 | Polymarket |
Feds raid Jennifer Lopez by April 15? This market will resolve to “Yes” if any property owned by famous American singer Jennifer Lopez is raided by U.S. law enforcement between March 31 and April 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This encompasses any actions taken by any U.S. law enfo... | 0.01 | Polymarket |
Andrew Tate guilty of human trafficking in 2024? This market will resolve to "Yes" if social media personality and former professional kickboxer Andrew Tate is found guilty in any jurisdiction of any country of any charge related to sex/human trafficking between January 16 and December 31, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this mark... | 0.14 | Polymarket |
Dan Schneider arrested by April 30? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dan Schneider is arrested between March 21, 2024, 12:00 PM ET and April 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. However, official... | 0.2 | Polymarket |
Craig Wright proven to be Satoshi before July? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Craig Steven Wright is proven to be Bitcoin creator "Satoshi Nakamoto", or part of a collective called "Satoshi Nakamoto", by June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for th... | 0.05 | Polymarket |
Will ≥10% of Votes go to 3rd Party Candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Election? This market will resolve to "Yes" if third-party candidates combined receive 10% or more of the total popular vote in the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Third-party candidates refer to any c... | 0.28 | Polymarket |
Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on...? This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on April 30, 2024, 12:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US g... | 0.01 | Polymarket |
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024? This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this mark... | 0.12 | Polymarket |
Doge ETF approved in 2024? This market will resolve to "Yes" if any spot Dogecoin ETF receives approval from the SEC by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the SEC, however a consensus of credible reporting ... | 0.09 | Polymarket |
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga 2023-24? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bayern Munich wins the Bundesliga 2023-24 season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundesliga (e.g. https://www.bundesliga.com/), however a... | 0.03 | Polymarket |
When will Sony release the Playstation 5 Pro? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sony officially releases the PlayStation 5 Pro between April 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In order to be considered released the product must be available for purchase... | 0.01 | Polymarket |
Who Gets Sacked First: Erik ten Hag or Mauricio Pochettino? This market will resolve based on whether Erik ten Hag of Manchester United or Mauricio Pochettino of Chelsea is officially sacked or resigns from their professional duties first.
If Erik ten Hag leaves his position at Manchester United before Mauricio Pochet... | 0.8 | Polymarket |
Ethereum Spot ETF approved by...? This market will resolve to "Yes" if any spot Ethereum ETF receives approval from the SEC by June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the SEC, however a consensus of credible reporti... | 0.17 | Polymarket |
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by June 30, 2024, ... | 0.03 | Polymarket |
Blast airdrop by May? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Blast launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop by May 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Y... | 0.67 | Polymarket |
Will Circle IPO by June? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Circle completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by Circle to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
If ... | 0.3 | Polymarket |
Will Pope Francis remain Pope through June 30? This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pope Francis (born Jorge Mario Bergoglio) remains the Pope without interruption from December 25, 2023 through June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be offic... | 0.93 | Polymarket |
Dutch government formed before June? This market will resolve to "Yes" if a coalition agreement to form a new Dutch government is officially announced by the participating parties by May 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official a... | 0.61 | Polymarket |
OpenSea token >1 billion a week after launch? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of OpenSea's token is above $1,000,000,000 1 week after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."
"1 week after launch" is defined as 12:00 PM ET, 7 calendar days after it launches. For example, if ... | 0.34 | Polymarket |
Will Blur Season 3 end by May? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Blur season 3 ends by May 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Blur (e.g. https://blur.foundation/, https://twitter.com/blur_io, etc.), howe... | 0.65 | Polymarket |
2024 NFL Draft: 1st Pick This market will resolve to "Yes" if Caleb Williams is taken with the 1st pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL, or announcements from specific NFL teams, however a consens... | 0.98 | Polymarket |
Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by June 30? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the governments of Ukraine and Russia both officially announce an armistice, ceasefire and/or negotiated settlement between the two countries that will go into effect by June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.
To count toward the resolution of t... | 0.05 | Polymarket |
Will Argentina dollarize in 2024? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Argentina begins to peg its currency to the United States dollar (USD), or adopts the United States dollar as official legal tender in 2024 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement that dollarization will begin will not be... | 0.18 | Polymarket |
Taylor Swift pregnant in 2024? This market will resolve to “Yes” if pop star Taylor Swift announces that she is pregnant between February 11 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Taylor Swift's verified social media accou... | 0.16 | Polymarket |
Will Elon get someone pregnant before July? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk gets another person pregnant between December 11, 2023 and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on information from Elon Musk or his representatives, however a c... | 0.18 | Polymarket |
Will Garcia vs. Haney be canceled? Ryan Garcia and Devin Haney are scheduled to fight on April 20th.
If the fight is canceled, or does not take place by April 20, 11:59 PM PT this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that for the purposes of this market, postponing the fight ... | 0.18 | Polymarket |
CZ sentenced to prison? On Feb 13 it was announced the sentencing of Changpeng Zhao (CZ) in the ongoing case "United States v. Changpeng Zhao" would be postponed to April 30 (see https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/12/criminal-sentencing-of-binance-founder-cz-postponed-to-late-april-.html).
This market will resolve to "Yes" ... | 0.59 | Polymarket |
TikTok sale announced before August? This market will resolve to “Yes” if ByteDance announces their intention to sell TikTok by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A public announcement of the intention to sell TikTok will qualify even if a sale has not been finalized. This includes... | 0.14 | Polymarket |
Will Shein IPO at a $90b valuation? This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by June 30, 2024 ET, Shein completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) and the company's market capitalization is $90 billion or more at the close of the first day of trading.
In the case of Shein merging with another company, being acquired, or ... | 0.1 | Polymarket |
Will an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize before August? XTX Markets has announced a $5,000,000.00 main prize for the first publicly shared AI to perform at a International Math Olympiad (IMO) Gold standard (https://aimoprize.com/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if this prize is awarded by 2024 July 31s... | 0.08 | Polymarket |
Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic VP nominee? This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kamala Harris is the 2024 nominee of the Democratic Party for U.S. vice president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https:/... | 0.89 | Polymarket |
Will Mbappé sign for Real Madrid? This is a market on whether Kylian Mbappé will sign for Real Madrid in the Summer transfer window, which closes on September 1, 2024.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that Mbappé has signed for Real Madrid during the transfer window. Otherwise, this market will res... | 0.77 | Polymarket |
North Korea nuke by...? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Democratic People's Public of Korea (North Korea) detonates a nuclear device in any capacity by May 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations. Use/launch ... | 0.05 | Polymarket |
Ayatollah Khamenei still in power in Iran by June 30? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, maintains his position as the Supreme Leader until June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. The market will resolve to "No" if, for any reason, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is no longer in his pos... | 0.92 | Polymarket |
Haaland to break PL goal record this season? The Premier League's 2023/24 season will start on August 11, 2023, and the final match round is scheduled for May 19, 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Erling Haaland scores 37 or more goals in the Premier League's 2023/24 season. Otherwise, this market will resolv... | 0.06 | Polymarket |
Russian nuke in space in 2024? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Federation places a nuclear weapon in space (an altitude of 50+ miles above sea level) between February 21, 2024, 11:00 AM ET and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source fo... | 0.14 | Polymarket |
George Santos wins NY-1 Republican Primary? This market will resolve to “Yes” if George Santos wins the 2024 Republican Primary for the 1st New York Congressional District (NY-1). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no 2024 Republican Primary for the 1st New York Congressional District (NY-1) takes place t... | 0.07 | Polymarket |
NVIDIA flips Apple in market cap by April 30? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nvidia's market cap is larger than Apple's at any point between Feb 22 and market close on April 30, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. | 0.07 | Polymarket |
J. K. Rowling arrested in April? This market will resolve to "Yes" if J. K. Rowling is arrested between April 1, 2024, 12:00 PM ET and April 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. However, official inf... | 0.01 | Polymarket |
Is John McAfee alive? This market will resolve to "Yes" if incontrovertible proof is publicly revealed that former presidential candidate John McAfee is still alive between January 29 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be ... | 0.05 | Polymarket |
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO in 2024? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sundar Pichai is no longer serving as CEO of Google for any length of time from the date of this market's inception, January 18, through December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement of Sundar P... | 0.26 | Polymarket |
Will ETH or SOL reach all-time high first? This market will resolve to “ETH” if Ethereum reaches an all-time high before Solana. This market will resolve to “SOL” if Solana reaches an all-time high before Ethereum.
The resolution source will be Binance, specifically the candlestick high prices for both ETH_USDT (https... | 0.43 | Polymarket |
Haiti intervention by April 30? This market will resolve to "Yes" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel from countries other than Haiti conduct officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operations on the ground within the sovereign territory of Haiti intended to establ... | 0.06 | Polymarket |
OpenSea token in 2024? This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenSea announces a token by December 31, 2024 11:59 PM ET, or to "No" otherwise.
"Announces a token by December 31" means they confirm by December 31 that they will have a token, regardless of when the token actually launches.
The resolution source is OpenS... | 0.21 | Polymarket |
Bryan Johnson's functional sperm above 20.0 M/ejac on next test? This market will resolve to "Yes" if on Bryan Johnson's (https://twitter.com/bryan_johnson) next sperm report his functional sperm count is above 20.0 M/ejac. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve immediately based on the ... | 0.5 | Polymarket |
OpenAI Sora public release before May? On February 15, OpenAI announced a new AI model designed to generate video from text, Sora. This model is initially being made available to red teamers, however there is heavy speculation over when it will be made available to the general public. You can see OpenAI's statements on... | 0.12 | Polymarket |
Will Trump mention $boden before July? This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump publicly mentions the cryptocurrency $boden by June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ‘mention’ includes the following:
-A verbal usage of the word ‘boden’ specifically in reference to the cryp... | 0.08 | Polymarket |
Friend.Tech airdrop before May? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Friend.Tech has an airdrop with some amount of monetary value by April 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Friend.Tech, however a consensu... | 0.39 | Polymarket |
Will 2024 be better than 2023? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ipsos Consumer Tracker's "Me Personally" measure on the "It was a (comparatively) really good year" chart for 2024 (ex: https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/americans-say-2023-was-good-year-and-think-2024-will-be-even-better) indicates that 2024 was a bette... | 0.24 | Polymarket |
MH370 underwater wreckage found before July? This market will resolve to “Yes” if new underwater wreckage from Malaysia Airlines Flight MH 370 is found by June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of resolving this market, 'found' means that new underwater wreckage must ... | 0.04 | Polymarket |
Trump and Biden both lose nomination? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden loses the Democratic nomination for POTUS and Donald Trump loses the Republican nomination for POTUS in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", both named ca... | 0.06 | Polymarket |
OpenAI settlement with NYT by end of 2024? This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that OpenAI has reached a settlement with the New York Times over copyright infringement issues by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
The resolution source will be a consensus of cre... | 0.24 | Polymarket |
OpenSea token by May 1? This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenSea announces a token by May 1, 2024 11:59 PM ET, or to "No" otherwise.
"Announces a token by May 1" means they confirm by May 1 that they will have a token, regardless of when the token actually launches.
The resolution source is OpenSea (https://opens... | 0.4 | Polymarket |
Packy vs Harry: TCS London Marathon - who beats their time by more? This market will resolve to the runner who has a better marathon time relative to their goal in the 2024 TCS London Marathon.
Packy McCormick's goal time is 2:57. Harry Stebbings's goal time is 3:20.
For example, if Packy got 2:55 and Harry got 3:15,... | 0.74 | Polymarket |
Arkansas Presidential Election Winner This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Arkansas in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has ... | 0.08 | Polymarket |
Ansem vs Bitlord This market will resolve to "Ansem" if Ansem wins any scheduled fight between himself and Bitlord within this market's timeframe. This market will resolve to "Bitlord" if Bitlord wins any scheduled fight between himself and Ansem within this market's timeframe.
If such a fight is considered a draw, is... | 0.5 | Polymarket |
Elizabeth Warren crypto bill become law by June? This market will resolve to "Yes" if any cryptocurrency-focused bill introduced by Elizabeth Warren becomes law by June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" Elizabeth Warren must be the primary sponsor o... | 0.25 | Polymarket |
Will Billy Football win NY-3 Republican Primary? This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bill Cotter (a.k.a. Billy Football) wins the 2024 Republican Primary for the 3rd New York Congressional District (NY-3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no 2024 Republican Primary for the 3rd New York Congressional Di... | 0.05 | Polymarket |
Will Elon Musk own X through June 30? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk retains ownership of X/Twitter, the social media platform, without interruption from December 11, 2023 through June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will... | 0.79 | Polymarket |
What is the chance that AIs will be able to program themselves by August 2026? As of 2017, humans can (with assistance of various software tools) program machine learning (ML) systems that can learn to do various tasks – for example, recognize text, transcribe speech, or play games.
ML systems are currently *not* ve... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO construction by Sep 2026? For more than 100 years, machines have been replacing human physical labor, especially in jobs requiring great physical strength, or endurance, or extremely repetitive and well-defined motions. This has arguably accele... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that global warming will be 1.99 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100? At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) "well below 2 ˚C" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the world will create the first Trillionaire by 2039? In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in.
International bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](ht... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a mile-high building by 2049? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility will come into service by 2041? Large-scale generation of electric power by nuclear fusion is a holy grail of energy science research. The potential for scalability (due to abundant ocean reserves of deuterium), and the relativel... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next human being will walk on the Moon by Jun 2029? In July 1969, Neil Armstrong stepped out on to the lunar surface, and became the first human being to walk on the Moon.
Less than four years later, In December 1972, Eugene Cernan stepped up into the Lunar Module, and (as of February 2018)... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that global warming will be 1.99 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100? At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) "well below 2 ˚C" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the world will create the first Trillionaire by 2039? In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in.
International bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](ht... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next human being will walk on the Moon by Jun 2029? In July 1969, Neil Armstrong stepped out on to the lunar surface, and became the first human being to walk on the Moon.
Less than four years later, In December 1972, Eugene Cernan stepped up into the Lunar Module, and (as of February 2018)... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that global warming will be 1.99 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100? At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) "well below 2 ˚C" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility will come into service by 2041? Large-scale generation of electric power by nuclear fusion is a holy grail of energy science research. The potential for scalability (due to abundant ocean reserves of deuterium), and the relativel... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO construction by Sep 2026? For more than 100 years, machines have been replacing human physical labor, especially in jobs requiring great physical strength, or endurance, or extremely repetitive and well-defined motions. This has arguably accele... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the world will create the first Trillionaire by 2039? In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in.
International bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](ht... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that AIs will be able to program themselves by August 2026? As of 2017, humans can (with assistance of various software tools) program machine learning (ML) systems that can learn to do various tasks – for example, recognize text, transcribe speech, or play games.
ML systems are currently *not* ve... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a mile-high building by 2049? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next human being will walk on the Moon by Jun 2029? In July 1969, Neil Armstrong stepped out on to the lunar surface, and became the first human being to walk on the Moon.
Less than four years later, In December 1972, Eugene Cernan stepped up into the Lunar Module, and (as of February 2018)... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that AIs will be able to program themselves by August 2026? As of 2017, humans can (with assistance of various software tools) program machine learning (ML) systems that can learn to do various tasks – for example, recognize text, transcribe speech, or play games.
ML systems are currently *not* ve... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO construction by Sep 2026? For more than 100 years, machines have been replacing human physical labor, especially in jobs requiring great physical strength, or endurance, or extremely repetitive and well-defined motions. This has arguably accele... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility will come into service by 2041? Large-scale generation of electric power by nuclear fusion is a holy grail of energy science research. The potential for scalability (due to abundant ocean reserves of deuterium), and the relativel... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a mile-high building by 2049? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that we will receive the last communication from Voyager 1 by 2026? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
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