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What is the likelihood that the next commercial supersonic flight will occur by Nov 2030?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that we will receive the last communication from Voyager 1 by 2026?
0.25
Metaculus
How long will the Great Pyramids be recognizable? Keyword: 37.4k Percentage: 50% Reframed Question: What is the chance that the Great Pyramids will be recognizable for 37.4k years? The ancient pyramids of Egypt are ridiculously cool. Construction began over 4500 years ago, and these awesome structures, despite hav...
0.5
Metaculus
Drake's Equation 1st Parameter R∗: What is the chance that 12.2 average rate of formation of suitable stars (stars/year) in our galaxy will occur? This is the first question of the [Fermi paradox series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox). In a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the likelihood that the next commercial supersonic flight will occur by Nov 2030?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the likelihood that the next commercial supersonic flight will occur by Nov 2030?
0.5
Metaculus
How long will the Great Pyramids be recognizable? Keyword: 37.4k Percentage: 50% Reframed Question: What is the chance that the Great Pyramids will be recognizable for 37.4k years? The ancient pyramids of Egypt are ridiculously cool. Construction began over 4500 years ago, and these awesome structures, despite hav...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the US student loan debt bubble will "pop" by 2027? It's an open secret that student loan debts are crippling millions of Americans – particularly Millennials. [CNBC estimated](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/15/heres-how-much-the-average-student-loan-borrower-owes-when-they-graduate.html) that ...
0.25
Metaculus
Drake's Equation 1st Parameter R∗: What is the chance that 12.2 average rate of formation of suitable stars (stars/year) in our galaxy will occur? This is the first question of the [Fermi paradox series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox). In a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/...
0.75
Metaculus
How many years after 2018 will the last human being be born? What is the chance that the last human being will be born 15.9k years after 2018? The scientific definition of "species" is surprisingly complicated. As this [November 2017 article](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/defining-species-fuzzy-art) from Scienc...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the US student loan debt bubble will "pop" by 2027? It's an open secret that student loan debts are crippling millions of Americans – particularly Millennials. [CNBC estimated](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/15/heres-how-much-the-average-student-loan-borrower-owes-when-they-graduate.html) that ...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that we will receive the last communication from Voyager 1 by 2026?
0.25
Metaculus
Drake's Equation 2nd parameter f_p: What is the chance that 0.950 fraction of stars form planets? This is the second question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02...
0.75
Metaculus
Drake's Equation 2nd parameter f_p: What is the chance that 0.950 fraction of stars form planets? This is the second question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02...
0.75
Metaculus
How many years after 2018 will the last human being be born? What is the chance that the last human being will be born 15.9k years after 2018? The scientific definition of "species" is surprisingly complicated. As this [November 2017 article](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/defining-species-fuzzy-art) from Scienc...
0.5
Metaculus
Drake's Equation 1st Parameter R∗: What is the chance that 12.2 average rate of formation of suitable stars (stars/year) in our galaxy will occur? This is the first question of the [Fermi paradox series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox). In a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/...
0.75
Metaculus
Drake's Equation 2nd parameter f_p: What is the chance that 0.950 fraction of stars form planets? This is the second question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02...
0.75
Metaculus
Drake's Equation 3rd parameter n_e: What is the chance that 0.392 average number of habitable planets per star will be found? This is the third question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](ht...
0.75
Metaculus
How long will the Great Pyramids be recognizable? Keyword: 37.4k Percentage: 50% Reframed Question: What is the chance that the Great Pyramids will be recognizable for 37.4k years? The ancient pyramids of Egypt are ridiculously cool. Construction began over 4500 years ago, and these awesome structures, despite hav...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the US student loan debt bubble will "pop" by 2027? It's an open secret that student loan debts are crippling millions of Americans – particularly Millennials. [CNBC estimated](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/15/heres-how-much-the-average-student-loan-borrower-owes-when-they-graduate.html) that ...
0.25
Metaculus
How many years after 2018 will the last human being be born? What is the chance that the last human being will be born 15.9k years after 2018? The scientific definition of "species" is surprisingly complicated. As this [November 2017 article](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/defining-species-fuzzy-art) from Scienc...
0.5
Metaculus
Drake's Equation 3rd parameter n_e: What is the chance that 0.392 average number of habitable planets per star will be found? This is the third question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](ht...
0.75
Metaculus
Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What is the chance that 0.0177 fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication? This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspir...
0.25
Metaculus
Drake's Equation 4th parameter f_l: What is the chance that 2.03×10−11 fraction of habitable planets have any form of life emerge? This is the fourth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent pape...
0.25
Metaculus
Drake's Equation 4th parameter f_l: What is the chance that 2.03×10−11 fraction of habitable planets have any form of life emerge? This is the fourth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent pape...
0.25
Metaculus
Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What is the chance that 0.0177 fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication? This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspir...
0.25
Metaculus
Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: What is the chance that a civilization remains detectable for 64.4k years? This is the seventh question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org...
0.5
Metaculus
Drake's Equation 3rd parameter n_e: What is the chance that 0.392 average number of habitable planets per star will be found? This is the third question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](ht...
0.75
Metaculus
Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: What is the chance that a civilization remains detectable for 64.4k years? This is the seventh question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that one TeraFLOP/s will cost less than $1 by 2029? The performance capabilities of computers (e.g. CPUs, GPUs and Supercomputers) are expressed in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FLOPS"_blank">floating point operations per second (FLOP/s)</a>, a standard rate for indicating the number of floa...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that one TeraFLOP/s will cost less than $1 by 2029? The performance capabilities of computers (e.g. CPUs, GPUs and Supercomputers) are expressed in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FLOPS"_blank">floating point operations per second (FLOP/s)</a>, a standard rate for indicating the number of floa...
0.5
Metaculus
Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What is the chance that 0.0177 fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication? This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspir...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that a fifth nation will launch a person into space by Jan 2026? On **April 12, 1961** the first [Soviet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vostok_programme) flies into space. On **February 20, 1962** the first [American](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/mercury/index.html) flies into space. On **Oc...
0.25
Metaculus
Drake's Equation 5th Parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve? Keyword: 2.92×10−4 Percentage: 50% Reframed Question: What is the chance that 2.92×10−4 fraction of habitable planets with life have intelligence? This is the fifth question in [a series](https://www.metacul...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that one TeraFLOP/s will cost less than $1 by 2029? The performance capabilities of computers (e.g. CPUs, GPUs and Supercomputers) are expressed in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FLOPS"_blank">floating point operations per second (FLOP/s)</a>, a standard rate for indicating the number of floa...
0.5
Metaculus
Drake's Equation 5th Parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve? Keyword: 2.92×10−4 Percentage: 50% Reframed Question: What is the chance that 2.92×10−4 fraction of habitable planets with life have intelligence? This is the fifth question in [a series](https://www.metacul...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the longest spaceflight of any one person will not reach 5 years by December 2040?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that a fifth nation will launch a person into space by Jan 2026? On **April 12, 1961** the first [Soviet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vostok_programme) flies into space. On **February 20, 1962** the first [American](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/mercury/index.html) flies into space. On **Oc...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the longest spaceflight of any one person will not reach 5 years by December 2040?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the longest spaceflight of any one person will not reach 5 years by December 2040?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that either the Democratic or Republican party in the US will cease to exist by 2041?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that China will receive an 8.74 total aggregate score from Freedom House for the calendar year 2028?
0.25
Metaculus
What will be the relative performance improvement of Top500's #1 performing supercomputer compared to the #500 performer in 2030? Top500 has been compiling charts and reports on the supercomputing industry for a long time. [Here](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) is a graph showing impressive gains in per...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 60.2% of Americans will be obese or overweight in 2030?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that China will receive an 8.74 total aggregate score from Freedom House for the calendar year 2028?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that either the Democratic or Republican party in the US will cease to exist by 2041?
0.25
Metaculus
What will be the relative performance improvement of Top500's #1 performing supercomputer compared to the #500 performer in 2030? Top500 has been compiling charts and reports on the supercomputing industry for a long time. [Here](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) is a graph showing impressive gains in per...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that China will receive an 8.74 total aggregate score from Freedom House for the calendar year 2028?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that a fifth nation will launch a person into space by Jan 2026? On **April 12, 1961** the first [Soviet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vostok_programme) flies into space. On **February 20, 1962** the first [American](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/mercury/index.html) flies into space. On **Oc...
0.25
Metaculus
Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: What is the chance that a civilization remains detectable for 64.4k years? This is the seventh question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that either the Democratic or Republican party in the US will cease to exist by 2041?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the World GDP in 2028 will be 133 trillions of 2010 USD? In the first decade of the 21st century, the World produced [more economic value than in the first 19 centuries of the common era combined](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2011/06/28/two-thousand-years-in-one-chart). From the long...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 26.9% of the global population will identify as "religiously unaffiliated" in 2050? The ["nones" are rising faster than ever in America](http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/05/13/a-closer-look-at-americas-rapidly-growing-religious-nones/), but globally, non-religious people are currently s...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 60.2% of Americans will be obese or overweight in 2030?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the first cloned human will not be born before 2050? In January, Chinese researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Neuroscience in Shanghai shocked the world by publishing evidence that they had [cloned](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(18)30057-6) two female maca...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 26.9% of the global population will identify as "religiously unaffiliated" in 2050? The ["nones" are rising faster than ever in America](http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/05/13/a-closer-look-at-americas-rapidly-growing-religious-nones/), but globally, non-religious people are currently s...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the World GDP in 2028 will be 133 trillions of 2010 USD? In the first decade of the 21st century, the World produced [more economic value than in the first 19 centuries of the common era combined](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2011/06/28/two-thousand-years-in-one-chart). From the long...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the first publicly traded company will achieve a $10 trillion market capitalization by May 2031? This year, just weeks after globe-conquering tech giant Apple reached its $1 trillion value milestone, Amazon has joined them in crossing the threshold ([at some surprise to Metaculus forecasters](h...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 60.2% of Americans will be obese or overweight in 2030?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the first publicly traded company will achieve a $10 trillion market capitalization by May 2031? This year, just weeks after globe-conquering tech giant Apple reached its $1 trillion value milestone, Amazon has joined them in crossing the threshold ([at some surprise to Metaculus forecasters](h...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the first publicly traded company will achieve a $10 trillion market capitalization by May 2031? This year, just weeks after globe-conquering tech giant Apple reached its $1 trillion value milestone, Amazon has joined them in crossing the threshold ([at some surprise to Metaculus forecasters](h...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the 2˚C climate threshold will be crossed by 2046? At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) "well below 2 ˚C". Many experts were (and are) skeptical about this being feasible. Hence, it was asked ...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 26.9% of the global population will identify as "religiously unaffiliated" in 2050? The ["nones" are rising faster than ever in America](http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/05/13/a-closer-look-at-americas-rapidly-growing-religious-nones/), but globally, non-religious people are currently s...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the 2˚C climate threshold will be crossed by 2046? At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) "well below 2 ˚C". Many experts were (and are) skeptical about this being feasible. Hence, it was asked ...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the first manned spacecraft will touch the surface of any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's Moon, or Mars by 2075?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the World GDP in 2028 will be 133 trillions of 2010 USD? In the first decade of the 21st century, the World produced [more economic value than in the first 19 centuries of the common era combined](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2011/06/28/two-thousand-years-in-one-chart). From the long...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the first manned spacecraft will touch the surface of any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's Moon, or Mars by 2075?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the first cloned human will not be born before 2050? In January, Chinese researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Neuroscience in Shanghai shocked the world by publishing evidence that they had [cloned](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(18)30057-6) two female maca...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the heaviest payload (in kg) put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service on January 1, 2050 will be 215k?
0.5
Metaculus
What will be the relative performance improvement of Top500's #1 performing supercomputer compared to the #500 performer in 2030? Top500 has been compiling charts and reports on the supercomputing industry for a long time. [Here](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) is a graph showing impressive gains in per...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the heaviest payload (in kg) put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service on January 1, 2050 will be 215k?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the longest verified human lifespan on record will be 122.7 years on January 1 2050?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the longest verified human lifespan on record will be 122.7 years on January 1 2050?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that 0.287 percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 0.287 percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the first cloned human will not be born before 2050? In January, Chinese researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Neuroscience in Shanghai shocked the world by publishing evidence that they had [cloned](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(18)30057-6) two female maca...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 0.287 percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that a crewed spacecraft will enter interstellar space for the first time by 2249? For the second time in history, a human-made object has reached the space between the stars. NASA's Voyager 2 probe, launched on August 20 1977, has now has exited the heliosphere – the protective bubble of particles a...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that a human-made spacecraft will attain a velocity of 0.0213 c before 2050? As of December 13 2018, the fastest human-made spacecraft is the [Parker Solar Probe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parker_Solar_Probe) which on 6 November 2018 [attained](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_vehicle_speed_...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the 2˚C climate threshold will be crossed by 2046? At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) "well below 2 ˚C". Many experts were (and are) skeptical about this being feasible. Hence, it was asked ...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that a human-made spacecraft will attain a velocity of 0.0213 c before 2050? As of December 13 2018, the fastest human-made spacecraft is the [Parker Solar Probe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parker_Solar_Probe) which on 6 November 2018 [attained](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_vehicle_speed_...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that a crewed spacecraft will enter interstellar space for the first time by 2249? For the second time in history, a human-made object has reached the space between the stars. NASA's Voyager 2 probe, launched on August 20 1977, has now has exited the heliosphere – the protective bubble of particles a...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that a human-made spacecraft will attain a velocity of 0.0213 c before 2050? As of December 13 2018, the fastest human-made spacecraft is the [Parker Solar Probe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parker_Solar_Probe) which on 6 November 2018 [attained](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_vehicle_speed_...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the average survival rate of all cancers will exceed 75% by May 2026? Every sixth death in the world is due to cancer, making it the [second leading cause of death](http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(17)32152-9.pdf) (second only to cardiovascular diseases). In 2016, 8.9...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers by 2031? Every sixth death in the world is due to cancer, making it the [second leading cause of death](http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(17)32152-9.pdf) (second only to cardiovascular diseases). In...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the 10,000th human will reach space by 2040?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that PHP will die by 2032?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the 10,000th human will reach space by 2040?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that PHP will die by 2032?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the average survival rate of all cancers will exceed 75% by May 2026? Every sixth death in the world is due to cancer, making it the [second leading cause of death](http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(17)32152-9.pdf) (second only to cardiovascular diseases). In 2016, 8.9...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the average survival rate of all cancers will exceed 75% by May 2026? Every sixth death in the world is due to cancer, making it the [second leading cause of death](http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(17)32152-9.pdf) (second only to cardiovascular diseases). In 2016, 8.9...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the longest verified human lifespan on record will be 122.7 years on January 1 2050?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that PHP will die by 2032?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the first human will be born on another world by 2172? Fewer than 600 humans have ever traveled to space. Fewer still have ever set foot on another astronomical object: only twelve men ever walked on the moon. In colonial times, the birth of the first child of settlers in a newly acquired terr...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that a crewed spacecraft will enter interstellar space for the first time by 2249? For the second time in history, a human-made object has reached the space between the stars. NASA's Voyager 2 probe, launched on August 20 1977, has now has exited the heliosphere – the protective bubble of particles a...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the first human will be born on another world by 2172? Fewer than 600 humans have ever traveled to space. Fewer still have ever set foot on another astronomical object: only twelve men ever walked on the moon. In colonial times, the birth of the first child of settlers in a newly acquired terr...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the 10,000th human will reach space by 2040?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the atmospheric CO2 concentration will be 440.7 ppm in 2030? *Related Question on Metaculus:* * [Will Earth's carbon dioxide atmospheric concentration reach 500 PPM before 2051?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/) ---- O...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the first human will be born on another world by 2172? Fewer than 600 humans have ever traveled to space. Fewer still have ever set foot on another astronomical object: only twelve men ever walked on the moon. In colonial times, the birth of the first child of settlers in a newly acquired terr...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the atmospheric CO2 concentration will be 440.7 ppm in 2030? *Related Question on Metaculus:* * [Will Earth's carbon dioxide atmospheric concentration reach 500 PPM before 2051?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/) ---- O...
0.75
Metaculus